Veeeeery surprised at the sims on this one

Closest I could find is 100bb deep, 500nl rake vs X-B125-B125 (jam)
https://app.gtowizard.com/solutions?...favorite=false


IP strat, they jam a good amount of A5s and A4s and most of the bluffs are pairs


I don't think it's important to hero fold boats, but with the timing and turn size it seems like a fold against anyone you have notes about slow-playing or missing pair bluffs.

Absolutely absurd to fold to this size in a cash game. If CO jams river than its absolutely not absurd. Its okay to call and lose to his few value combos. The ones that want to fold are giving CO zero credit for bluffs or worse value. This is a mistake imo.

Cheers

They don't deserve any credit for running a multi street and expensive turn/river bluff here in such an unattractive spot where I'd need to fold trips/FH, when they could have just 1/4-1/3 pot on the flop and be done with it.

The question for me in game was does AQ do this often enough, and I decided that it was unclear.

I wouldn't have folded, but I don't think its like super great call spot. It definitely falls into a spot where I think if you have experience in your pool and your spidey-senses are tingling it can be okay to hero-fold stuff like this with this exact runout + sizings, etc. It's just not "standard".

Wizard is folding to a river shove 82% of the time? That's shocking if i'm reading it correctly

Not sure where you're seeing 82%, it's 55.7% for me which is almost exactly alpha.

Exactly. It's one of those spots you know that you're going to be beat a decent % of the time, but not enough to justify a fold for the sizing. In other words, it's poker. But anyone saying there will be zero bluffs here, isn't playing fair-minded poker. I feel like I'm on repeat when I say this, but just read the forum and you'll find plenty of unexpected bluffs.

Do any non-whales/fish run an ob bluff like this without timing down at least a little bit to decide on the bluff sizing, and if they want to bluff at all?

Sure. But I've never put a ton of stock in online timing tells. Live... that's a different story. But online, someone could just be DC'ing, their cat could have jumped on their keyboard, or who knows what. I don't know if there's a consensus on this, but I know lots of people have put out theories over the years. I've seen some people try and compile data on this as well, but nothing that I've read that's been uber convincing imho. I've had plenty of people run fast bluffs and slow bluffs online.

I always say, you're the person who knows best what was going on this hand. If you think the timing was really quick on the turn and river, and someone running a bluff would have needed more time in this spot, then I'd lean on that and trust it. But on a paired board once the flop is checked... how much time do you need to consider bluffing the next two streets?

I'm not big on timing tells either, but in an unconventional and non-gto line in an uncommon spot 150 deep against an unknown, with non-standard bet sizes, I would think that almost all regs will have to take some amount of time on the river before deciding to overbet and pick the size that they want, unless they already knew they had a hand that wanted to overbet regardless of the river card. That would probably mean FH+ here, and less likely bluffs in a spot that's already likely to not have bluffs.

I still think this a fold or ~0ev spot, especially if A2s shows up sometimes, which would be reasonable. Folding could be a punt, or calling could be a punt. Who knows. I was mainly wondering about how other people look at this situation.

Well, sounds like you made a good decision then.

77 is the best hand we have on this river - so snapcall.

We should call here. Even though this looks like AA and KK a lot of the time, our opponent is probably aware of that so we can't just be folding the top of our range.

I'd probably bet the turn and river. It can be dicey getting raised, but since it is 150BBs deep we should have some AK combos that flat preflop at some frequency. More often than not, I expect to get two streets out of some Ax hands and occasionally something like KQ, KJ or a pocket pair.