CO is 27/20/10 over 145 hands. Nothing notable so far. Impression is that he's some kind of competent player.

I didn't notice any obvious timing tells at any point, and the turn and river didn't take more than a few seconds for him to bet.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 163.29 BB
Hero (UTG): 180.44 BB
CO: 152.8 BB
BTN: 158.59 BB
SB: 104.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7 7

Hero raises to 2 BB, CO raises to 6.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 4.5 BB

Flop: (14.5 BB, 2 players) A A 7
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (14.5 BB, 2 players) K
Hero checks, CO bets 13.78 BB, Hero calls 13.78 BB

River: (42.05 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero checks, CO bets 52.72 BB

By my math you need to win 35.74% of the time on a river call to break even. Villain obviously will take this line with AK (6 combos), AA (1 combo) and KK (3 combos), for a total of 10 combos that have you beat. If villain will take this same line with QQ (6 combos) that would give you 6 winning combos out of 16, which is 37.5% - pretty much break even. If he has ANY bluff combos or any other combos like JJ or AQ that might take this line, the call is easy. Given his 10% 3 bets, he probably is three betting AQ and QQ pre. After you check the flop and the K turn, he probably is fairly confident value betting both of these in addition to the 10 combos that beat you, so IMO the call is profitable.

EDIT - I guess we could add A7cc to the combos that beat you, but if he is 3 betting A7s, he probably is also 3 betting other suited ace combos, so the conclusion stands that it still is a good call.

You have to call imo. Not too happy about it, but he can bet AQ like this and NL200 reg should be capable of turning something like 7x 88 into a bluff.


Idk what these sizing mean, maybe there is some read there.

There are a few weird things going on. 150bb deep, No flop bet in a fairly obvious range bet spot. Pot turn on the best card in the deck for Btn, and weird overbet size on the river. Neither of these sizes are used that often by any regs in a 3b pot.

Yes but you don't have any reads what those mean. You can go for soul read and fold, but idk it's not that easy to get into someone's head esp after 145 hands.

It's ok to fold 0ev bluff catchers, but you are throwing a lot of ev if you are on wrong level. Even if you call and he turns over something stronger, you still lost less than you "should".

I'm not advocating for any action. Just wondering how other people think of the situation since I think it's a pretty sick spot to be in against a virtual unknown.

Yeah seems like from his perspective AQ can bet like this since when you call turn you have some Ax and he doesn't have to fear AK, KK and you never have A7 so he can treat it like the effective nuts.

77 feels like you have to call since you can beat AQ and if there are any random bluffs at all like QJs or something seems like you're getting enough odds.

If you think he's unbalanced fold, if he's capable you've got to call, judging by his stats he seems obviously capable

I haven't played NL in a while but is anyone betting the turn and river themselves? Is that a bad idea?

I guess I don't really expect people to bluff like this, but I'm also not really folding a boat here. Even if he does have AK/KK or whatever, he played it suboptimally.

idk I'm not giving him credit for any bluffs here because they all get bet on the flop. I think he has every FH/AA at a higher frequency than AQ, and the frequencies need to be equal for this to be a call. I don't think AQ uses this bet size often enough, if it can do it at all, so I folded. I think a call is somewhere between marginally winning and a massive punt against a reg, and always winning against a fish.

I don't think it's an option.

Generally speaking I think it's good to go with your gut... this is a spot I wouldn't have folded, but it is certainly a spot that seems people would underbluff in for these sizings.

I am confused.


We have a boat. This seems like a 'yes I have a boat' moment

Just because he checked the flop, doesn't mean he won't have bluffs in his range. I'm assuming you know the results, because your reasoning seems pretty results oriented. You're trying to justify a fold here, but this is a standard call. He can bet AQ this way, and he will have some bluffs, or hands he turns into bluffs. There's easily more bluffs than combos of value bets here.

Look at the hand this way... if you are beat, good thing he didn't bet the flop, because this could have gotten much worse.

The result is that I folded, so I can only guess what he had.

True but depending on how bad co is they may be over valueing a value hand

It makes sense that folded if we assume villain xb Ax otf, but what's to say they aren't also xb the rest of their range since they clearly don't know this is a flop that they should bet in the first place?

Why can't they just also bluff in a spot where you have shown more weakness than population probably would?

Calling here and with hands that block Ax and Kx such as JcJx, JsJx

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folding this is crazy…

You need to be good 36% and you are probably good 50%+

Fold river seems OK to me.

His range here is AQ+ but it will mainly revolve around KK and secondarily AA.

AK-AQ will bet flop a lot more often than AA-KK I think.

I did not specify that hoping to find more than 1% bluffs in this line from a reg (probably not very good given his X flop and his sizing turn), is an unreasonable thing.

If you are always afraid of the monster under the bed then poker is the wrong hobby

To be honest, the fact so many advocate to fold just proves how worthless this forum has become. This is no limit cash game. Not day 7 of the main. You simply do not fold a hand this strong for that bet size after this specific action. You are supposed to run into boat or better. You also run into trips. You also run into bluffs. Thats poker baby.

Looks like only one person is advocating for a fold Bobby?

I had too much to drink last night ~

No.

Against AQ+ we have 42.5% EQ and we would need 36% to call but the combo weightings will not be the same. To think that he has as many AQ as KK-AA which Xback flop (and ovb river to a lesser extent), or that there are river bluffs is like believing in a fable.

It remains a complex decision because he can have AQo, ingame I don't fold but fold is clearly not absurd.