Pretty cool spot. I have all QTs/TT he doesn't. I'd also value bet A5s OTR which he only has 1 combo of. So let's call it 14 combos of value - okay bluff?

Edit* I actually have way more Tx here than I initially though. I have JTs-ATs so that's 15 combos right there plus TT and A5s/T9s/54s. So maybe 30+ combos?

I also block AThh which matters a little bit. Best bluff combo is maybe KQs here no? We don't want diamonds in our hand either to unblock his backdoor floats so and combos are the best

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem $0.10(BB)
HERO ($20.71) [VPIP: 26% | PFR: 22.2% | AGG: 32.7% | 3-Bet: 11.1% | Hands: 151381]
SB ($10.05) [VPIP: 18.4% | PFR: 13.6% | AGG: 23.9% | 3-Bet: 9.2% | Hands: 593]
BB ($10.00) [VPIP: 24.2% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 41.7% | 3-Bet: 15% | Hands: 64]
UTG ($19.91) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 15.7% | AGG: 17.6% | 3-Bet: 3.6% | Hands: 120]
HJ ($15.65) [VPIP: 23.6% | PFR: 18.7% | AGG: 33.9% | 3-Bet: 4.1% | Hands: 3783]
CO ($16.09) [VPIP: 22.5% | PFR: 16.8% | AGG: 32.2% | 3-Bet: 6.2% | Hands: 1322]

Dealt to Hero: A 7

UTG Raises To $0.28, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.81, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Calls $0.53

Hero SPR on Flop: [10.79 effective]
Flop ($1.77): 9 6 8
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $1.32 (Rem. Stack: 18.58), UTG Calls $1.32 (Rem. Stack: 17.78)

Turn ($4.41): 9 6 8 J
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $3.30 (Rem. Stack: 15.28), UTG Calls $3.30 (Rem. Stack: 14.48)

River ($11.01): 9 6 8 J 7
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $15.28 (allin)

looks wp to me, you can probably bluff pretty wide here as well because people tend to overfold in these spots.

After analyzing this spot a little bit, I think the deciding factor in the EV of your river bet is going to be whether or not villain 4bets QQ pre (assuming they fold all sets otr and raise all sets on earlier streets)

What do you think? The better regs definitely 4bet QQ here but it is pretty mixed.

Disclaimer* This bluff was not successful - you wont believe what villain called me with.*

I'll post results a bit later

Oh boy, sounds like he put you on AK lol

I also think it's really mixed. Regs vary massively in their 3bet%, so I think you're going to see a lot of both

haha he definitely did. solid read

AK? Seriously? Your value range is literally just Tx and those are few and far between.

world class call

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem $0.10(BB)
HERO ($20.71) [VPIP: 26% | PFR: 22.2% | AGG: 32.7% | 3-Bet: 11.1% | Hands: 152046]
SB ($10.05) [VPIP: 19.2% | PFR: 13.7% | AGG: 22.7% | 3-Bet: 8.2% | Hands: 683]
BB ($10.00) [VPIP: 24.2% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 41.7% | 3-Bet: 15% | Hands: 64]
UTG ($19.91) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 15.7% | AGG: 17.6% | 3-Bet: 3.6% | Hands: 120]
HJ ($15.65) [VPIP: 23.5% | PFR: 18.6% | AGG: 33.7% | 3-Bet: 3.9% | Hands: 3946]
CO ($16.09) [VPIP: 22.5% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 32% | 3-Bet: 6.3% | Hands: 1336]

Dealt to Hero: A 7

UTG Raises To $0.28, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.81, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Calls $0.53

Hero SPR on Flop: [10.79 effective]
Flop ($1.77): 9 6 8
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $1.32 (Rem. Stack: 18.58), UTG Calls $1.32 (Rem. Stack: 17.78)

Turn ($4.41): 9 6 8 J
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $3.30 (Rem. Stack: 15.28), UTG Calls $3.30 (Rem. Stack: 14.48)

River ($11.01): 9 6 8 J 7
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $15.28 (allin), UTG Calls $14.48 (allin)

It’s basically the same as a set. You’re not value betting anything less than Tx. He blocks QT and JT, and are you really tuning AJ or KJ into a bluff?

yeah and having combos is good because it blocks my bluffs right?

5x is always value bet OTR

You’re jamming 5x here 100%? Again, how many 5x do you think you actually have here?

A5s always and 54s at a high frequency.

Doubt u can value jam 5x and you should most likely check turn with A5s,54s w/o fd. If betting turn with Ad5d beats checking then villain is very likely doing something wrong.

You shouldn't bet this big or bet at all with T9,TT,JT ott while villain should always call these.

i think it's because of missed flushdraw. Bunch of low stakes players can't accept that their flush missed in a big pot and can call with ace high. It's all psychological.

What do you think about his call?

I think TT/JT should be bet a ton OTT. Villain is weighted towards a FD when the flop doesn't get XRed and you get value from all pairs he made OTF.

T9s i agree should be checked.

yeah i agree with this. villain's get emotionally invested into the hand, especially in a big pot

That doesn’t automatically mean that he’s bluffing a ton (or even at all) if you’re going off micro zoom pop tendencies

If villain is calling QJs pre, then I kind of have to doubt the extent of his thought process was much more than “putting him on AK” (or AQ). Either that or he lurks the forums and also knows DooDoos sn

Heh its a fair point but I'm not convinced TT should be bet for this size. Also I would be surprised if this board should be bet aggressively.

Idk about villain's call, I'm calling Tx here readless in his shoes. Would you bluff with clubs?

I don't think you have to jam to get the job done. Think a slightly smaller sizing works just as well.

I like flop and and river(although not the sizing on the river). Turn for me is a check a lot of the time. Barreling a lot of turns but a J is a card I would check a lot on.

Do you really need to 3bet this hand BUvsUTG? Sure you are 200bb deep so suited Ax goes up in value. BUt you have plenty of other Ax-suited hands you can pick.

I usually make it a rule (although my coach tells me to not make rules) to never bluff missed FDs but you might convince me otherwise. There are definitely spots where it is correct. But I haven't studied those spots and haven't seen a good example hand illustrating this concept.

I wouldn't do it here though but theoretically maybe I should since I really don't have many bluffs that triple barrel. I'm struggling to find many. All my 7x have 2 pair by this river except A7s.

This might be a spot where there are a ton of unnatural bluffs.

A7s is not even close to the worst Ax suited though. A2s/A6s are by far the two worst.

A7s is better than A3s as well i believe.

I wouldn't fold much of my range preflop considering the small 3bet and stack depth

yeah i think QJs is fine to call here - i actually prefer a 4bet though at this stack depth vs non nits. The cool thing about this hand is you block the 3rd/4th preflp nuts while simultaneously unblocking AK. So when villain just calls your 4bet you can navigate post flop much more easily and kind of own him.

Unless of course they play correctly and flat your 4bet with AA/KK IP at a high frequency but most people do not do that. And they will always call AK.

Well then I think villain's call is reasonable, he unblocks your bluffing range and blocks JT QT Hmm, good point, thx

That would be amazing if he knew i didn't bluff missed FD's and called for that reason. But I don't think I can give a random 10NLz player amazing logical deductive reasoning as a default.

Oh well - i probably won't get in this spot for another 100k hands but it was interesting.