Villain is ex3cution

He has seen me bluff only in 1 pot (small river bluff) till now.

I know he calls me on flop + on turn with soo many things probably mostly Ace highs since its such an easy flop and turn to barrel.



Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $205.50
Hero (BTN/SB): $351.75

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN/SB with 7 6
Hero raises to $6, BB calls $4

Flop: ($12.00) 2 8 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB calls $10

Turn: ($32.00) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $24, BB calls $24

River: ($80.00) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $72

What do you think??

Horrible river card to 3barrel on. If he's calling flop/turn with Ace-high, he's def calling river. The only thing you're getting to fold here is a weak missed fd.

Thats the thing, I'm pretty sure he knows that I know this.

do you bet a8, 99-qq here?

For sure and i'm pretty confident he knows that

i'm not a fan of the river bet. the king is one of the worst cards to bluff on. he'll still look you up with any PP or 8 which comprises most of his range. also if you wanted to bluff at this spot, make it a lot smaller there is no need to bet that big since his range is so polarized to "insta calling" or "insta folding"

how much history do you have. how much have you guys played?

i think if you merge a decent amount and if you think he gives you credit for doing that - this makes it somewhat decent as opposed to baddish cause he surely understands that the wider your "value" range is, the least profitable is his call becomes. i am still not a fan just because he may be hard pressed to fold a pair on this board and because well fu - thats why.

I think if you want to take this line you have to overbet jam the river to really fold out his pairs or even ace high hands. I know that I'd for sure snap call most villains with ace high in this spot because it is so unbelievable that they made running kings or flopped trips. That said, I just wouldn't bluff here.

Against a good player I think we lose credibility because he is going to realize we are repping such a small range. I dont really like betting in this spot, but if we're betting nearly any pair here and villain knows this, this would be a fine play to get ace high to fold.

33 seems to call here a lot.

I don't think he is calling two streets with ace high here very often. Is that way off?

I think this is kinda bad and it is related to a pretty simple concept I've been thinking a lot about lately but having trouble putting into words. It mainly has to do with avoiding barreling when multiple things have to align in order for your opponent to fold.

The main time I think of this is barreling mult streets where opponent has either a made hand that he will showdown with or a flush draw. If you put him on the flush draw and continue barreling, not only do you have to be right about your read, but you have to dodge a hefty number of cards (including maybe 1 over for pair outs). Because your read has to be right and you also still have to dodge 24% of the deck if you decide to barrel turn + river, so your returns to bluffing are slimmer.

I don't know if that was a great example but I think the concept is better applied in this hand. In this case, not only do you have to put ex3cution on a pretty tight range like A high (you are getting looked up by most pairs here) but you also have to be correct about this leveling war that you have going on. If you are wrong about his hand and he shows up with 87s he is calling, if you are right about his hand and he has A high but isn't on the level you think he is, he is probably calling.

In most cases we should be barreling when we have only one obstacle to overcome. This applies much more against non-thinking opponents than thinking and against good players you will have to break this rule but the important thing is to be able to recognize the two different situations and how to deal with both of them.

Don't know if this made sense but hope I got the point across. Anybody have any links where this type of thing is discussed in a thread?

TL;DR: Don't barrel when you have multiple things working against you simultaneously.

the more i think about this hand the more i think it's spew v. ex3cution because 100% of his flop range is calling the turn and then we have to hope we get a good river card AND we get the fold we want on that river card but on this board texture in an aggro match i wouldn't be surprised if close to 100% of his flop calling range wants to call this river which makes it way too hopeful.

this is kinda want rbracco was saying about you need him not only to have the bottom of his range but he also needs to be on the level that wants to fold it, which is a stretch since once he gets here and gets the card that makes it super unlikely for you to have something then you need him to be on a certain level of thought or else it fails.

i'd like this more on a separate overcard, like 9-Q, with a smaller bet size, but i think against ex i give up after flop. also, i wouldn't mind you taking this line with something like AQ high or 33 because then its a nice merge, but when his whole range is ahead of your hand you need to make him fold way too often in a spot where a lot of people don't want to fold.