Yeah ok video replay for ya this time

So villain had won a donkement for like $2k but apart from that he was a losing player. His form was tilt on sharkscope although he seemed fine if it matters.

I decided to lead the turn because he had folded to that play about 5 times outta 5 before. The fact i had a FD just made it an easier decision. I don't like stabbing that turn usually but with read and FD i think it is ok in this instance.

As for the river.

I figured he could easily have had a load of hands i beat. Any Q, 10 maybe an A or 2 pair.

It's unlikely he has a better flush or full house?

So am i more inclined to just call the river or ship my FLUSH in?

Thanks

P.S. i don't know how to edit out results in vids so just pause river so it doesn't haze your judgement.

just call the raise

i think his raising range on the river is at least Qx+ (might even be just flushes+) but his calling range on a flushed, paired boared should crush your nut low flush

Yes, just call. Think in his perpective. What kind of hands would raise. Only a FH, higher flush and maybe a Q.

Very drawy board to shove this hand. Bet/Call.

Survey says:

With the 2nd worst possible flush (only somebody holding exactly 3d4d has a worse one), yes, you are being a little spewy.

Somewhere around a jack high flush or so, I'd be more inclined to ship it.

at a $20 sng a lot of people will raise/call w/ Qx but overall it is still a better call.

i think the person your playing will stack off with a Q here, so its a semi cooler matters what his river raising range is. but yeah calling is fine as is shipping it

Yeah i know what you're saying but your point backs up my logic kinda.

I always think if i hit a flush HU then i'm good. There are times you are outflusshed but who cares. I think it's safe to assume that it's unlikely they'll have a better flushy.

Sooo like based on your logic that a J high flush would be good enough that says to me any flush is good. (lost you now)

I dno...i swear you see a Q or random A or T here more often than full houses and better flushes against a losing $20 dude?

I think you're getting into a bit of trouble by assigning ranges in hands like this with a little too much input from bad SS stats. just my humble opinion.

that's why i said: his raise/calling range should crush your 5high flush on a flushed and paired board

i.e. if he's not goddamn bad/spewy/bluffy

Yeah i hear ya punches

I think SS's have skewed my judgement a few times of late gotta sort that out

he will never call a shove with any of the hands you mentioned (2pair, A, etc.), he will only call with a Q (maybe not even), FH, or flush, whichhh makes this a spew, regardless of if his raise is 99% pure bluffs, you need to consider his calling range, cause his raising range really is meaningless unless your turning your hand into a bluff here...


summary: flat

Haven't read the other responses yet.

With your read and the flush draw I think the lead is fine. When he calls you you should definitely proceed with caution since he so often folds there. At river you hit your baby flush. I think the raise there is fine because you may be called by a lot of worse hands. However, I really really dislike the shove over his reraise. I would just flat. It seems like he's at least got a flush and if that's the case his flush is almost certainly better than yours.

Your assumption is flawed, and that's why this is spewy.

If you're going to shove here, you have to think about two things:

#1: What hands can call.
#2: How many of those hands have me beat.

If you really tried to assign a range of hands that can call a shove, a very small percentage of them are going to be hands you beat. You're almost *never* getting called by 2 pair, and even some queens are going to fold. The bulk of the rest of their range for calling is full houses and flushes, with the majority of them being flushes. If you can't beat a decent percentage of those, then you're flat out spewing, which is why a higher flush might be worth shoving (but even that is still fairly marginal) where the second nut low flush is not.

yeah i like the analysis in this thread very much...

The thing about the difference between his raising and calling ranges. I didn't really think about that at all.

It's just the basic definition of a value bet, "what hands do you beat that will call". The answer being very few in this case.

Thanks for the input everyone i realised this was spewy now so thanks for helping me see that.