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[ NL SNG] TPGK river valuebet [ NL SNG] TPGK river valuebet

01-08-2008 , 09:23 AM
2 Hand so no reads. First hand he limped and I lead a AQx board then c/f turn.
I'm quiet sure I have to bet here but how much? Anyone shoves (slight overbet)?

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (2 handed) Ultimate Bet Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB (t1560)
Hero (t1440)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, T.
Hero raises to t60, BB calls t40.

Flop: (t120) 2, T, 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t110, BB calls t110.

Turn: (t340) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t250, BB calls t250.

River: (t840) 3 (2 players)
BB checks
[ NL SNG] TPGK river valuebet Quote
01-08-2008 , 03:57 PM
That's an ugly river. I don't see any likely hands villain is turning into a bluff, so I think pushing is your best option. Also, I think villain would have led out river w/ a 5.
[ NL SNG] TPGK river valuebet Quote
01-08-2008 , 05:34 PM
I think a while and go a little under a shove, that looks the weakest to me when comboed with some hesitatiion.
[ NL SNG] TPGK river valuebet Quote
01-09-2008 , 09:48 PM
wouldnt discount the straight completely, lots of bad players will still check a 5 there. if villan knows what hes doing then its a lot more unlikely. but i see that mentality a lot with the bad players at the 20s, when they hit their draw they just check because youve been betting the whole way

in saying that he usually will have something like JT and hes come too far not to pay off so just push, its not that much of an overbet and is more likely to be called by JT than 3/4 pot

disclaimer: i am probably the biggest donk alive
[ NL SNG] TPGK river valuebet Quote
01-10-2008 , 12:04 AM
1/2 pot.
[ NL SNG] TPGK river valuebet Quote
01-10-2008 , 01:16 AM
This doesn't look like a draw that hit, but two hands in unless the guy is a complete and utter station he's come a long way. Good chance it is like 99,88,77 etc. You might get 1/2 pot value. Seen lots that will let you hang yourself with that river shove holding jj,qq when the board runs this dry, but it takes a passive not to cr that turn with a hand better than tp.

I'd make a std 1/2 pot value bet, but don't like the 1 card straight. To easy for him to cr/shove me off. Plus you gotta be thinking wtf is he calling with. I feel grateful to take a pot this big hitting my kicker and check behind. Probably a little conservative, but with a few more hands we'd be in a much better position to extract without risking our stack. It's not like we won't hit one pair again.

Mike
[ NL SNG] TPGK river valuebet Quote
01-10-2008 , 02:25 AM
I b/f 1/2 pot. Fold is more for sets too than straights.
[ NL SNG] TPGK river valuebet Quote
01-10-2008 , 03:14 AM
Quote:
I b/f 1/2 pot. Fold is more for sets too than straights.
You realize by 1/2 betting, then folding you are leaving yourself with ~600 into a 2400 pot, right?

The more I think about this hand, the more I like checking behind given the stack sizes. In fact my first post doesn't even make sense.
[ NL SNG] TPGK river valuebet Quote
01-10-2008 , 04:17 AM
I check because a worse hand will not call you often enough.
[ NL SNG] TPGK river valuebet Quote
01-10-2008 , 04:22 AM
Shoving on a 4 straight board without a straight is in my mind a bluff not a value bet. Villain will not pay you off with TP when there is a 4 straight out there! I think checking isn't very bad here. I would check or make a small value bet.
[ NL SNG] TPGK river valuebet Quote
01-10-2008 , 09:50 AM
I agree with davet and skates.

I'd half pot this river then fold to a shove. Yes we're folding leaving 600 behind and 2400 pot but our odds there are 4-1 so that means we have to be ahead only 20%+ in my experience villain hardly ever bluffs this river i would put our chances of being ahead more at between 5-10%.

I can understand checking behind but personally i think his hand is so often JT,T9, QT (these hands are much more likely than 99, 88, 77) we need to bet for value on the river, it is a thin bet but a worthwhile one i think.
[ NL SNG] TPGK river valuebet Quote
01-10-2008 , 04:09 PM
Thanks for all the answers so far.
Checking behind is missing too much value i think. I'm looking here for the optimal bet size to make it look like a bluff so 9T,8T or even 99 won't fold. Don't forget this is a $20 SNG and people go broke here with TPNK so often. Of course it is possible that I'm hanging myself here against a Set or 53s but playing that scared would really hurt my soul
[ NL SNG] TPGK river valuebet Quote

      
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