$20 HUSNG reg speed, Shove flop?? - Page 2 - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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$20 HUSNG reg speed, Shove flop??

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06-16-2010 , 05:48 PM

#26

wut_teh_hell

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 238

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.378% 52.24% 00.14% 20169 54.00 { 99-66, AQo, A5o }
Hand 1: 47.622% 47.48% 00.14% 18333 54.00 { JsTs }

apart from that hands (which are hands that would call ur shove) there are so many stone cold bluffs in his range that ur fold equity is huge. and even if he has you beat, your only a very small underdog. the dead money in the pot might compensate for that.
shove seems +EV to me.

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06-16-2010 , 07:50 PM

#27

bluemage55

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 2,443

Quote:

Originally Posted by spamz0r

just scribbled that down really fast tbh, should be okay i think though just a small wall of text; someone can confirm? 30% equity when called seems about right

In the worst case scenario, we have ~23% equity if villain holds KsQx for a flush/BD straight blocker + redraw. Most of the time we have ~27% equity vs. Qx.

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06-17-2010 , 10:17 AM

#28

ac on

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 3,622

I don't like a shove. I think I'd rather 3b smallish to like ~380-420 and call a shove than shove myself. I raise smaller if he can jam a 5 here for protection, so that we don't have to worry about being floated, though it should be pretty clear he has a 5 or a draw a lot when he does float.

A shove is overkill. Yeah, it's EV+, but we lose the maximum when he has something, and we don't need to risk that many chips to fold out his air. Plus, 3b/call should weaken the range against which we get it in, because he can spaz out and shove with a worse FD/no pair, no draw-type hand, but he's pretty much never calling a jam with those.

I still prefer a call, though.