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20 + 1 $ husng. ugly spot 20 + 1 $ husng. ugly spot

01-08-2010 , 09:09 PM
first time i play against opponent, i sharkscoped him and he is fishy .. 50 games played, 5$ av. stake
i called his 3x raise OOP a lot before and i c/r his cbet 3 times so far the same amount as in this hand, all of them succesfully as he folded. it's still early in the match but when i showed weakness in previous hands he seemed to take a stab. i feel he has had it with my check raises and he is calling ATC my c/r. turn is very ugly and i check to induce bluffs rather than bet/folding with a plan to c/c river as well.

thoughts ?

Full Tilt Poker $20 + $1 Heads Up No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players - View hand 464270
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): t1930 M = 64.33
BTN/SB: t1070 M = 35.67

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with J Q
BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero calls t40

Flop: (t120) 2 7 J (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t80, Hero raises to t180, BTN/SB calls t100

Turn: (t480) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t300, Hero calls t300

River: (t1080) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t530 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls t530
20 + 1 $ husng. ugly spot Quote
01-08-2010 , 09:16 PM
i like it.
20 + 1 $ husng. ugly spot Quote
01-08-2010 , 11:18 PM
Raise the flop bigger, ~t220.

As played, we probably can't fold to a river shove that small. We're slightly behind here IMO, but we only need ~25% equity to call profitably.
20 + 1 $ husng. ugly spot Quote
01-09-2010 , 04:59 AM
That turn card is as ugly as it gets. Given your high check-raise frequency we have to assume all aces are still in range. On the turn I make us about a 52% favorite against his flop call range. I've included a few king high hands as well as almost all pairs (flopped or pocket) in his range. Once he bets I think the likelyhood of him haveing a weak pair or king high is far less as most villians would check behind with weak showdown value.

I don't think we are enougth of an underdog on the turn to fold, unless you really have a huge edge against him, but I think we are going to be behind way too often on the river to call.
20 + 1 $ husng. ugly spot Quote

      
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