Hand 1)
-UTG is a reg, that plays around 32/22/2.5 and cbets around 52% on flops
-UTG+1 is 25/19/2.2, and only cold calls about 4% of hands from utg+1 vs utg (WTSD is 25% and won at sd is 49%)
-UTG+1 barrel stats as PFR are 58/58/75% cbets by street

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($813.07) 203bb
UTG+1 ($405) 101bb
CO ($400) 100bb
Hero (BTN) ($785.99) 196bb
SB ($348.27) 87bb
BB ($1,174.17) 294bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) Hero is BTN Q K
UTG raises to $12, UTG+1 calls $12, 1 fold, Hero calls $12, 2 folds

Flop: 9 4 3 ($42, 3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $28, Hero calls $28, UTG calls $28

Turn: 7 ($126, 3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $84, Hero calls $84, UTG calls $84

River: 9 ($378, 3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $281, Hero ??

2)
-Villain is 27/21/2.3, villains barrel as PFR is 49/47/49
-My UTG range is probably perceived to be around 15%
-No great reads on this particular type of situation with villain, though I have seen him take showdowns with big pairs in the past

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($434.10) 109bb
UTG+1 ($566.80) 142bb
CO ($893.38) 223bb
BTN ($400) 100bb
SB ($512.20) 128bb
BB ($1,176.72) 294bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) Hero is UTG K K
Hero raises to $12, 1 fold, CO calls $12, BTN calls $12, SB calls $10, BB calls $8

Flop: 10 9 2 ($60, 5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $30.36, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls $30.36, CO folds

Turn: 9 ($120.72, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $90.90, Hero calls $90.90

River: 5 ($302.52, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $266.74, Hero ??

Why did you play these hands so passively?

Hand 1 why no raise on the flop or turn?

Hand 2 why go into check/call most as the preflop aggressor on a board with multiple draws?

The reasoning is mostly just balance.

Hand 1) I think I would call down with most of my range on this board (sets, flushes, Ahx) especially since it's 3way. So balance.

Hand 2) Yah I can go either way with cbetting or c/c. Given it's four way I might have to b/f if I cbet I think.

Hand 1 I would definitely raise the flop and the turn. If he's only calling pre with 4% of hands, that would look something like AK, AQs, 99+. The point is he's not calling pre with hands like 33 and 44, assuming the stats you have on him are over a significant number of hands. It's possible he's calling with AJs, but this would just mean that he's calling with fewer pocket pairs (you can't put AhJh in his range and 33 and 44 and get anywhere close to 4% call pre vs UTG). It's very possible that the only hand in his range that beats you is quads, and possibly AhJh. I feel like he actually shows up with quads here a decent percentage of the time, but I don't see how this can be a fold.

Hand #1- what does Villain bet that heroes beats? You think he takes this river line with JhTh with that river card? There are so many boats and flushes in heroe's range that are better than something like JhTh and his coldcall #'s are probably much wider in this spot since the guy that is opening is 33/22 and there's a fish in the SB

Hand #2, that turn/River sizing makes me want to fold after the flop action you have taken. You PFR and then X-call into a field of 5 people. Think about what you rep. Villain is betting large hoping you have a high spade and can't fold it.

I think then are both reasonably clear folds on the river tbh.

I think that in the first hand he is actually bluffing the river with the ace of hearts a lot of the time, or going for thin value with worse hands. Your hand is underrepresented by the line you took; I feel like you are at the top of your range and he would have expected to have been raised on the flop with sets and flushes to prevent someone from drawing with the ace of hearts. If he has the ace of hearts and knows you don't have the nut flush or a set, he could reasonably assume that he could bluff you off of your entire range. I feel like he can easily have AA, AK and AQ with the ace of hearts. I doubt he's betting the flop if he has 77 and given how narrowly he calls UTG raises I don't know if he shows up with 33 or 44 in this spot very frequently. Even assuming he never makes a thin value bet with a hand like Jh10h, and only throwing in 1 bluff, so his range is 33, 44, 99, and AK with the Ah, it narrowly works out to a call given that you need to win the hand just under 30% of the time for it to be a profitable call. So if you throw in one bluffing combination, even assuming he never value bets worse than a full house, it's a call. I don't see how this can possibly be a fold; given how underrepresented your hand is I feel like he has to have at least one bluffing combination with the ace of hearts in his range.

[QUOTE] No, not everyone raises flushes or sets on that flop because they are worried about 1 card which is such a small % of his hands anyways considering Hero holds Kh and Qh. Calling is fine because it keeps ranges wide. What is Villain going to do with black QQ/KK on that flop when raised?

Also the original PFR is still in the hand, Villain is still firing firing into 2 other people when the flush is obvious and the board is paired. The original PFR's range is weighted more towards the Ah than anyone elses in the hand

So the people who think that this is a fold don't think that there are any bluffs in Villain's range? If Villain is ever bluffing here it is a call. Would you also fold 33 here? Using the logic that he wouldn't value bet a flush on a paired board here and is never bluffing in this spot, I don't see how you can call with 33. I feel like folding 33 here would make us exploitable and would be a clear mistake.

I also think not raising the flop and the turn is a mistake, but If you would play sets and draws with the ace of hearts the same way then its probably fine. I would raise with all of these hands though.

having to call KK otr is not fun vs a triple donk

Yah I would probably call down Ahx and sets as well.

I did think about raising the turn but I felt like there was no great sizing after his bet other than shove, and a call would keep in UTG as well (which it did).

In hand 1 I'd be most worried about UTGs range, he can't overcall the turn with anything marginal at all if he is any good. The bottom of his range should be AhAx and then he can still have slowplayed nutflushes and sets.

Nvm I guess UTG can still have AhKx or AhQx.

Aha! But, if UTG holds the Ah, then wtf is UTG+1 bluffing with??? Is he the type to just randomly barrel off with some no equity hand? If not, then he pretty much is either overplaying the river by betting a lower flush (unlikely since you (BTN) still have boats in your range, or he just has a boat here himself like 100% of the time.

Either way, thanks for posting this! Interesting hand to think about! I think it shows that you do need to multistreet bluff these monotone boards sometimes without holding a big suit card (in this case heart). I'd probably pick a flopped pair for barreling off here.

misread hh, ignore

Hand 1 is also 200bb deep vs UTG. Would really suck to call the $281 and then have him jam over the top. Seems fairly unlikely he'd be check/calling 3 ways twice with a set there but you never know.

I am not sure over what sample size that cold call 4% vs UTG open is but I think it would have to be a pretty huge sample to be significant. Also could be easily influenced by other factors like if there is a fish still to act here it is much more likely to include 33/44.

If you had 33 rather than KhQh then there would be alot more KhKx, QhQx AKh AQh KQh Kjh Qjh in both opponents ranges and zero 33 combos. I do think that would be significant enough to change the decision as by the river pairing the 9 you have cut their flopped sets number from 7 to 4 by holding 1 set.

In the KhQh hand 33 >>> Ah8h >>> AhQh somewhat > KhQh.

why dont you give sample sizes? FISH!

joke

Haha sorry. I don't remember exact, not at my computer but it was for sure >1k hands for each villain.

1 - i would expect UTG to have the Ah a lot after this action, which significantly reduces UTG+1's bluff combos. perhaps JhJx or ThTx as well but peeling any lighter than that on the turn seems way too loose, and even peeling those hands seems vv bad. he can also have the NF if he's any good. on the other hand, UTG is largely capped aside from the occasional slowplay, so the burden of defense on the river will mostly fall to you, and i'm not sure this hand is in the bottom ~40% of your range on the river. also if his bluffrange is strictly the Ah this is probably a better hand to call with than Axhh, especially since the K-hi flush likely doesn't 3/4p this river. but i think UTG blocking UTG+1's bluffs is so likely that you should probably just fold anyway.

cbetting hand 2 seems bad unless someone in the hand is fishy. 5way oop i'd usually just fold flop and be done with it, but it seems really unlikely he'd half pot this flop with a set, so i like a call vs that sizing.

turn's fine. you can fold weaker overpairs w/o a spade etc. we are severely capped here, position is valuable, the pot is large, and normally i wouldn't get myself into this spot but i'm functioning off the (perhaps optimistic) assumption that his flop bet removes sets from his range.

river... for bluffs he can have 3 78s, 3 QJs, maybe 2 KJs, maybe up to 8 KQ, tho betting flop 5way with KQ/KJ without a BD seems really loose to me. if you only include OESDs and GS+BD, that's 9 bluff combos. weak Tx turning itself into a bluff wouldn't shock me either. for value maybe 2 T9 and 7 NF. i don't see how the bare As bets flop.

for your range, i see perhaps a couple Axss that checkcalled flop and 3 AsAx, for maybe ~5 better combos. to prevent him from bluffing whatever garbage we need to call like 55-60%. my guess is KsKx very likely falls in that range. from his perspective a bluff is very attractive because he probably never thinks you're full and only show up with 3 As combos which a lot of fellers would even bet flop with, and like i said earlier he'll usually show up with enough potential bluff combos on the river, so i'd certainly be defending as close to local GTO as i knew how.

In terms of GTO play, I'm actually not quite sure what percentage of our range we need to call with so that we aren't being exploited by bluffs, but I've been trying to work out the math and I believe the formula P/(P+b) should work, where P is the pot size prior to the bet, and b is the bet. So using this, I think we need to call with 57.4% of our range to make his bluff neutral EV. Please correct me if I am wrong about this. So we would need to determine if this hand is in the bottom 42.6% of our range or not. What does your range look like on this river? If we say 3 combos of 33, 3 combos of 44, and 1 combo of 99, it depends on how many flushes are in our range. It seems like it would be a call considering you probably call on the button pre with a lot of suited connector type hands and aren't folding before the river if you flop a flush. If you construct a river range where KhQh is in the bottom 42% of hands I will agree that this is a fold, but I worked it out for what my river range would be in this spot and it would be a call. I also call wider in this spot preflop on the button than a lot of people.

Yep your calculation is correct, I need to continue with 57.5%.

I'd imagine my range getting to the river is probably:
Nut flush (8 - but discount some raising flop so maybe 4)
Other flushes, K8-KQ (4), QJ/QT/JT (3), T8(1), 78/67/68/57(4)
Big pairs: JJh,QQh (2)
Boats+: 97s (2),33(3),44(3),99(1)

Total combos = 27, need to call top 15
Better than KQhh = nut flush (4), boats+ (9) = 13
So looks like KQhh is right on the borderline of a GTO call here. If I get to more rivers with nut flushes calling down it could even be a GTO fold with KQhh surprisingly.

This is also assuming I defend entirely vs UTG+1. But if UTG defends some, then I can defend even less. So that factor plus river being 3way making bluffs less likely probably makes this a fold.

I know I definitely make this fold in the moment though!

57 but not 56? Also, I'm assuming you're folding 1010 on the turn then? If the nut flush is in UTG's range, then folding KhQh is fine, but otherwise I feel like it makes us exploitable and it makes a bluff profitable for Villain. It's definitely a tough spot I'm just not convinced it's a clear fold as others have suggested. Are people folding Ah10h here? I feel like this would definitely make us exploitable, but then there's the issue of finding hands in Villain's bluffing range that make sense. I just think too many people have the mentality that in this type of spot when the board pairs on the river any flush needs to be folded against a third barrel because no one would value bet a flush rather than just c/c and no one bluffs multiway pots. I've definitely bluffed people off of flushes in very similar situations when drawing to the nut flush and missing, and knowing their range was heavily weighted toward medium flushes. I guess it really depends on Villain, and if I was the Villain, maybe people would think it's a call. Anyway, cool hand thanks for sharing it. I'm curious what others have to say about what to do with Ah10h, and if they think any flush needs to be folded.

h1 I fold, the chance he could be vbetting worsee flushes, maybe a hand like JThh for example is well offset by the times he probably has you beat plus you have another player left to act who could also have you both beat. Him having a 4% call is interesting as thats only 50 hands. Here is what 82 hands looks like {AxQx-AxTx,Ax5x-Ax2x,KxQx-KxTx,QxJx,QxTx,JJ-77,JxTx}
so you are going to have slice some of these hands off where you see fit but given that you have blockers to a lot of *potential* suited broadways that he could of called with then you are already not looking good despite this being an awesome flop. Combine it with the fact he is betting into 2 players on a river paired board I would be very surprised if you were good here.

sorry how can we say we need to defend xx% when villain is betting into multiple opponents on the river?