its bad blocking diamonds but I struggle to see what other bluffs we get here with, and we block ak aq which is good. should I shove otr?

You block the strongest Ax too, no brain bluff.

i'd give up otr with this combo, you block the bulk of his call 2st fold river range

and bluff what combos? I think this is better to bluff than a lower FD as we block the strong ax

i did some further analysis for this hand.

so otr we're only betting AK+ for value, which is 9 AKo combos, 3 AKs, 3 AA, 3 A3s, 2 A4s (the last 2 depend on your frequencies preflop), for a total of lets say 20~ combos. assuming we have around pot size left otr, we need 2:1 ratio value:bluffs to make our opponent indifferent to calling (10 combos of bluffs). coming up with enough bluffs is indeed difficult, and we probably do need to include a hand such as KQdd for its removal effects.

potential bluff combos: KQdd, KJdd, KQcc, KJcc, KTcc, QJcc, QTcc, 76s, 65s, potential KQss "airball" bluff

the best clear bluff candidate is KQcc since we block AK/AQ AND unblock KQdd/KJdd/QJdd/KTdd, which leaves villain with 18 combos of "clear calls" (AK/AQ) and folds out at least 4 broadway diamonds

KJcc leaves 20 AK/AQ combos and folds out 4 broadway diamonds
same with KTcc, QJcc, QTcc

KQdd leaves opponent with 18 combos of "clear calls" (AQ/AK) but no diamond removal

JTcc - all 24 AK/AQ, -4 diamonds

hands such as 76s/65s probably need to be bluffed at some frequency, leaving villain with all 24 AK/AQ combos and all diamonds will fold.

KJdd - 21 AK/AQ, no diamond removal


tldr: best bluffing combos, in order by removal effects:

KQcc (potentially other suited KQ, not including KQdd)
KJcc/KTcc/QJcc/QTcc
KQdd
JTcc and 76s/65s are tied

Nice analysis

Bluff KJs TJs QJs check KQs has some SDV we can balance with those bluffs if we check few hands like AA to let him bluff with missed flush draws but its not worst hand to bluff.

yeah this has merit. we want to be including some AA traps given how much they block villain's calling range, so we can drop a combo or two from our bluffing range. KQ does have reasonable showdown.

KQdd has no SDV here since it blocks all possible FDs villain may have here, okay maybe they can have JTdd occasionally but that's 1 combo. Anyways SDV is never realised as villain is never checking back worse.

Also I think people are overestimating the effect of blockers here, villain has like at best 3 combos of missed FDs, assuming villain isn't floating to wide pre, and far more combos of AK/AQ here.

It's far more important to block 8 combos than unblock 3 combos. KQdd is better than KJss here imo as AJs is part of villains folding range at a reasonable frequency. +1 data, great post, think the only thing you missed is blocking AJs/ATs.

youre right, i was too hasty thinking KQ has any sdv. its only really ahead of JTdd which might not even call turn and some 76cc/65cc

V has all club draw as well so if he never checks beck split or worst hand he probably bluff too much and if he dost has those he is not overfolding anyway.

And that's only like 3 combos of missed FDs too depending on pre flatting ranges. Villain isn't overbluffing with 6 missed FDs and 24 value combos of AK/AQ. tbh don't think villain should have any club combos here, got so much Ax/pairs/some FDs to defend with here that they don't need to be stretching to BDFD.

@data, obvs it's villain dependent but I don't mind think players flat that wide vs 3Bs MP vs CO, and will probably defend more linear range than low cards like 65s.

KQs KJs KTs QJs QTs TJs 9Ts is like 14 combos.Hero cbet for less then 1/3 pot V should call all his BD flush draws.

Okay well simply flatting that wide in MP vs a 3B is silly and noone is doing that.

Even still with that incredibly wide range my point remains, villain will be defending enough Ax/pairs/FDs to certainly not defend all BDFD given how many Ax/pairs are in your range.

And let's say villain was defending all BDFD OTF and with your incredibly wide range, that's still only 14 combos for their 24 combos of AK/AQ and possibly more idek how wide you think villain flats pre, 88 too I guess, so villain will be bluffing all combos.

Could be true.When you put it in solver most of the time he plays mix strategy of betting like 50 % of those combos but it really depends on Vs range,KQ is ok combo to bluff if you want so the worst option to bluff is QJs and TJs because those hands block his folding range and non of his calling range.

BTW Imo V should jam some decent number of TPTK and better hands ott given there is two flush draws and AQ would be kind of thin value bet given that we really dont get to the river with many worst hands that will c/c river jam