$11HUSNG - 2pair bet into on river - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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$11HUSNG - 2pair bet into on river

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06-26-2008 , 10:12 PM

BLC17

centurion

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 142

Poker Stars, $11 + $0.50 NL Hold'em Tournament, 10/20 Blinds, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): 1,380
BB: 1,620

Pre-Flop: (30) 8

dealt to Hero (SB)
Hero raises to 60, BB calls 40

Flop: (120) 3

(2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets 80, BB calls 80

Turn: (280) 3

(2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets 180, BB calls 180

River: (640) 8

(2 Players)
BB bets 360, Hero calls 360

No strong reads. Opponent seems on the aggressive side tho. I guess he could be vbetting an ace? could easily be trips or a flush tho. Do I have to call this w/o reads?

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06-27-2008 , 12:19 AM

omgwtfnoway

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 545

it could be a flush but i don't know about "easily" being trips. the river is a pretty good card for you and he made a small bet so i'd call this without strong reads.

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06-27-2008 , 12:23 AM

$kill Game

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 4,120

yea he cud have a flush but thats a snap call

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06-27-2008 , 12:28 AM

pushing22

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,716

Quote:

Originally Posted by $kill Game

yea he cud have a flush but thats a snap call

ya, you are beat a lot here but i am never folding

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06-27-2008 , 01:35 AM

BLC17

centurion

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 142

Quote:

Originally Posted by omgwtfnoway

it could be a flush but i don't know about "easily" being trips. the river is a pretty good card for you and he made a small bet so i'd call this without strong reads.

Yeah, I guess even against a random $11 donk, a 3 has to be a pretty small or nonexistant part of his preflop calling range.

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06-27-2008 , 01:37 AM

BLC17

centurion

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 142

What if the river comes 9s? Is it still a call now that AJ,A9,AT,AK beat me and any other ace other than A3,AQ splits w/ me?

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06-27-2008 , 06:54 AM

Highbeem

grinder

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 494

Quote:

Originally Posted by BLC17

What if the river comes 9s? Is it still a call now that AJ,A9,AT,AK beat me and any other ace other than A3,AQ splits w/ me?

Then it's a fold I think, not much you can beat there with villain's line

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06-27-2008 , 07:15 AM

jiacstrap

banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,040

Tough to lay this down... but it is almost always a flush or a 3 here, and it is a 3 a lot more of the time then you think. These are 11 dollar turbo's blc, q3 calls a raise OOP every time in these. But I do think he has the flush, worst river ever

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06-27-2008 , 10:18 AM

malediction

newbie

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 24

Nice bet on the turn. I can't see why a flush draw would call the turn. The expected value of the call is minus 60, if we ignore future betting and even if we take into account that he'll get more into the pot if he hits his flush, he'd have to assume a 90% probability of you calling his river bet to make the turn call break even.
Of course, I'm making the (probably invalid) assumption that people are really thinking like this in an $11 HU turbo.
The fly in the ointment is Qx of spades, which is calling that turn bet all day long. There's a good chance he's turning that up, but I still think it has to be a snap call.

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06-27-2008 , 12:17 PM

#10

omgwtfnoway

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 545

Quote:

Originally Posted by BLC17

What if the river comes 9s? Is it still a call now that AJ,A9,AT,AK beat me and any other ace other than A3,AQ splits w/ me?

most of the hands you're getting value in the OP are aces with a better kicker, if the turn is 9s then you need to fold.

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06-27-2008 , 02:47 PM

#11

BLC17

centurion

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 142

Villain turned over K3o. I still think I maybe should've folded on the river - not being results oriented. Because the only hand I'm really ahead of when the 8s hits is a better ace. But does a hand like AJ really flat call OOP and then check/call the flop and turn when the ace flops? It just seems like way too passive a line for any player with that strong of a hand. And it seems really unlikely villain is bluffing here or thinks a weaker ace or Qxo is good given that I've bet every street.

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06-27-2008 , 05:50 PM

#12

TNixon

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 5,720

This:

Quote:

Villain turned over K3o.

Is why this:

Quote:

I guess even against a random $11 donk, a 3 has to be a pretty small or nonexistant part of his preflop calling range.

Is a horrible assumption. Based on the average player, you'll do much better if you assume they're slightly ******ed until proven otherwise.

But yeah, you have to call, and as omgwtfnoway said, most of the hands you're getting value out of are A9-AJ,AK, so if the 9 comes instead of the 8, your kicker doesn't play, and you're only calling to chop at best.

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06-27-2008 , 06:38 PM

#13

scutch

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 233

Quote:

Originally Posted by BLC17

Yeah, I guess even against a random $11 donk, a 3 has to be a pretty small or nonexistant part of his preflop calling range.

I don't agree with this - there are a plenty of loose players that will call preflop all day with any two, whether raised or re-raised. So I call this, but expect to see a 3 often (I would play a 3 exactly like this, and would call with K3, A3, Q3 without a second thought if I thought that opp was loose or bad).

Last edited by scutch; 06-27-2008 at 06:44 PM.

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06-28-2008 , 12:57 PM

#14

Kalledrengen

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,919

You are getting 2,8:1 odds and needs to win ~26,5% of the time to breakeven.

I tend to call here but I actually think it is pretty close.

/edit
deleted some things I had misunderstood, no need to read nonsens ^^

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06-29-2008 , 01:17 PM

#15

babaorumi

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 236

Quote:

Originally Posted by jiacstrap

I agree. It's OBV ALWAYS 3x or a flush draw which completed.
Snap fold for me

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