Yo
I've been playing 10nl zoom lately to start adjusting more, implementing more plays and start trying to exploit specific leaks. Started overbetting sometimes and I wanna know if this is a good spot to do it:

$0.05/$0.10 Zoom No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($18.84) 188bb
UTG+1 ($14.79) 148bb
CO ($14.17) 142bb
BTN ($5.40) 54bb
SB ($11.41) 114bb
Hero (BB) ($19.04) 190bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is BB 8 9
4 folds, SB raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: 6 A 7 ($0.60, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.40, SB calls $0.40

Turn: 10 ($1.40, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB calls $1

River: 2 ($3.40, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.20

Final Pot: $3.40


So villain is a reg which I do not have mroe information on (just started playing 10nl again so no samples) but I've seen him on various tables, always fullstacked etc.

Okay so here's my thought process:
I call pre in position a bit deeper w/ SC, standard I guess?
flop he checks. I think he's x/f the majority of the time so I make my bet on the smaller side to balance my weak range (which is 100% of my preflop def range)
he x/c flop which is probably something like {Middle PP, 7x + bdpotential, weak Ax, 6x w/ some bdpotential}
ott i bet again obv w/ the nuts and he calls again. A lot of 6x, 7x picked up GS althought we block that pair+GS hands so I think its more likely he has weak SDV like Ax, middle PPs
river bricks and so his range is most likely to be weak SDV (a lot of baby Ax). The thing is: he has weak SDV so we can potentially overbet our entire range here if he folds all of them most of the times, but that would be super exploitable. So what range are we overbetting there?

Let's give him a range of 88-99, TT, JJ, A2s-A5s, A8s-A9s, A8o-A9o, 87s
88-99 (6 combos), TT (3 combos), JJ (6 combos), A2s-A5s (11 combos), A8s-A9s (4 combos), A8o-A9o (12 combos), 87s (2 combos) => total combos 44 combos
He has to call 45% of his combos for him to not be exploitable? so he should call w/ 20 combos, probably being something liek A8s-A9s, 87s, TT, A2s-A5s (most of them blocknig nutty hands)

How do we assign our range for overbetting now gto wise?

btw. I made overbet to balance my range bc I'd ebt missed spades here too w/ overbet since his range is Ax heavily which he won't fold so easy but decided to do some theory, probably backfiring

Bet a standard amount here, stop with the FPS and justify it with GTO talk bro
He's not thinking about his total range here he is thinking about his 2 cards

Good to think about this stuff but I don't think it will matter too often at 10nl. Just bet an amount that Ax will call when you have nuts and more when you want to bluff.

It's not just that he is weak, because the player pool is large at 10nl even if he was a very good player it's unlikely you will even play enough with him that he can work out what your overbetting range consists of.

Are you saying he never calls any of his range there except for TT, A2?
Autoprofit inc

I am playing at the same level and i agree completly on trying the overbet move. So if he was chasing a flush ofc you wont get many action, but this is actually a great move vs baby aces and it usually pays off, especialy vs regs. I would bet about $5 to represent that missed flush draw and also to make it look like im taking him off that Ax with my 7x Tx.

I dont see a point of doing this vs the fish players, but it got me so much more money off the regulars who are to proud to be folding Ax in this spot. Even calling stations do back off when you overbet the river most of the time.

About the overbetting range, it should be only nuts and really strong hands imho, because players at this level wont really notice your overbetting paterns, of course throw in a bluff here or there if you want to balance yourself out, but i dont think many people will notice.

So if you aren't doing this with missed draws and only made hands overbetting makes no sense and you will be losing money.

+1

id bet bigger ott and smaller otr

I don't think it is too bad of a spot in theory to do it but what I have found is that most players (especially 10nl) don't realise they still need to bluffcatch a decent amount vs overbets because they don't really understand overbetting.

fwiw if the turn was 2c I think it is a decent spot to think about overbetting with some hands as you can have all strong hands and a lot of draws with decent equity whereas villain can't have anything strong.

Regarding the smaller flop sizing I would go big on this board when villain caps their range as you can barrel lots and put villain in tough spots - I wouldn't expect to get x/r either very often.

Those two posts^, villain should be calling here a lot with Ax but he just wont

Pretty terrible spot to overbet, his range is naturally weak.

Your range assessment makes no sense whatsoever, a lot of those hands will bet the flop a majority of the time. In fact, most regs don't check toppair at all.

Figuring out how to become unexploitable here is not done by giving him a range... it's also suboptimal.

he has a lot of bluffcatchers and cant call an overbet w/ anything or its really awkward for him so how is this not a good spot
they x/b weak-middle Top pair on Ahigh baords A LOT oop bvb. at least seen that 5 times in 2k hands

I'm not figuring out how to be unexploitable. i figure our how he should act when he wants to be unexploitable and adjust my range to that

ah ok, the thread says "gto attempt"... There is no counter strategy in gto

He has bluffcatchers indeed, so why overbet? You actually think that looks bluffy? So many regs have 0 bluffs when they do that that doing that will actually looks strong.

And you're right, in your last 2k hands some guys checked a weak toppair. It's still a lot less likely than the range you assigned.

He doesn't want to be unexploitable in this spot, and he won't be. He's going to check some weak hands and not fold because he doesn't feel like folding. So in order to make money you take a max exploitative line. If you want to maximize your profit in this spot, just bet an amount that will get called as often as possible as big as possible. I think that's somewhere between 2 and 2.60.

really?

my understanding of overbetting is to do it in situations where your opponent has a range made up of mainly middling hands and we have a polarised range made up of value hands(stronger than villains hands which effectively become bluffs catchers) and bluffs. this puts villain in a position where they don't know what to do and may make mistakes, but that's not something we can control so we don't worry about it too much. i guess if you have a read that villain plays many hands inelastically, then you can exploitatively bet big with your valuehands and smaller with your bluffs.

i think it general you should be considering your range as a whole as often as possible. therefore you should consider what hands you get to the river with and how you want to be playing all of them. to balance ranges, it is simplest to try to keep to few bet sizes. my point is that if you get to the river with A8 or something you may want to bet, but do not want to overbet, what do you do? that would mean you would have to create a smaller betsize for your thinner value hands, balance that with the correct amount of bluffs and then probably stick in some stronger hands occasionally to keep our range uncapped. that can make it difficult to think about all at once...

Why does gto still get passed the swear filter?

I'd be betting more on the turn - closer to 1.40 than 1.00 - even overbet the turn if you want. Flush draws aren't calling your overbet on the river when they miss but they will call your overbet on the turn. Also flush draws might try something silly on the river if the pot is bigger and there is more to fight for though this is rare at 10nl.