Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

Hero (UTG): $10 (100 bb)
CO: $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8 8
Hero raises to $0.25, MP folds, CO raises to $0.80, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.55

Flop: ($1.75) 5 K K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.10, Hero calls $1.10

Turn: ($3.95) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $2.25, Hero raises to $8.10 and is all-in




V is much more aggressive than general pool. V has at least AK, KQs, KJs, JJ+, AQss, AJss. We get snapped off by 8x AK, 2x KQs, and likely 2x KJs, for 12 combos. V needs to win 58.5/(58.5+143)=29% of the time to call turn, we expect folds from 6x JJ, 6x QQ, 6x AA, and his at least 2x FD's that have 18% and need 29% for a total of 20 hands.

On turn we are risking 81 to win 62, so we need to win 81/(81+62)=56.6%, if we think he only calls 12 combos and always folds at least 20 combos then we win this spot 20/(20+12)=62.5% of the time.

I was thinking about this spot and our ratio of value:bluff jamming turn here and came to the conclusion that value jamming AK, KQs, KJs and bluff jamming 88, 99, TT is a decent mix and unblocks some potential FD hands like QJss he can possibly 3bet pre and double barrel.

Thoughts on this proposed 40% value 60% bluff range here? Should we bluff more or less, and why?

As far as I can tell, jamming turn is worse than calling, you block none of villain's value range, and basically nothing worse calls you. You deny equity to villain's bluffs, but that's really all that jamming accomplishes. We should be jamming turns at a higher frequency vs a villain like this, but there are better spots to do so than this imo. I think there being a wetter board texture and having blockers to villain's value range is pretty important. I'd much rather be doing this here with QsJs or AsJx.

Easy call turn. You allow him to play perfectly against a shove

While we block none of his value range, we also unblock more of his folding range by not having QJs JTs AJs AQs type hands. The percentage of his combos that fold is higher when we have 88-TT compared to two broadway cards. We also have some equity with 88-TT if we do run into his calling range as opposed to an AsJx type hand that has no equity and blocks a lot of his flush draws as it's also a possibility that he has some A4 A3ss type hands too.


Calling turn feels like a losing play to me. Seems like we allow his bluffs to realise equity, we're OOP, we're going to be in a tough spot on a lot of rivers if he triple barrels a spade with AsJx or worse, we're going to get a fair chunk of river checks from 99-JJ giving up.

What do you mean when you say we "allow him to play perfectly against a shove"?

Math is good but hand reading is not imo.Dont think V will just doble barrel AA QQ JJ TT on this board so we cant expect him to fold those because he dose not have those.
He probably have Kx or flush draw or maybe some A4s A5s,so when you jam he just folding draws and calling with Kx.This is pretty bad hand to bluff we have no equity when we get called and we dont have any blocker.Good range for jam here would be flush draws and Kx.You probably can fold this even pre when you open UTG and IP 3bets you.
AP-Turn is super clear fold this is one of the worst if not the worst hand you can have in this spot.
60% of bluffs and 40% of value is pretty bad ratio for this spot imo especially if you use hands with no equity like this as a bluff