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10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? 10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn?

09-29-2010 , 05:45 AM
Full Tilt Poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $7.75
BTN: $16.88
SB: $10.00
BB: $12.18
Hero (UTG): $11.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with K 8
Hero calls $0.10, CO raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($1.05) K Q 7 (3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.30, BTN folds, Hero calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.65) A (2 players)
Hero bets $1.10, CO calls $1.10

River: ($3.85) 7 (2 players)
Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $9.30 all in, CO calls $6.05 all in


Ok, I've been playing around with these turn donk bluffs on really scary cards...I've found that c/c+donk is often a good alternative to c/r as it accomplishes roughly the same goal but lets you mix up your play a little better. Villain is 27/9 passive preflop but only over a very small sample; I have not been at the table very long at all, so I have no reads.

I limped UTG to find out if the table would be passive enough to let me get away with seeing cheap flops with drawing hands that way (this is common at 10NL.)

I'm pretty sure my river shove is bad, but I thought once I decided to rep the A and/or flush with a turn donk bet I kinda had to follow through with it.

I don't have much experience with this kind of bluff...can anybody offer any thoughts? Thanks.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-29-2010 , 06:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by setoverset55
Hero calls $0.10, CO raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.20
You've got to be kidding me?

Preflop: Seriously, don't. Just don't. Villains are bad and can call there you with pretty much anything that beats you.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-29-2010 , 06:33 AM
Preflop line is horrible and makes my eyes burn. Fold pre. As played, why overbet that riverbluff? I can see that he folds anything more to a overbet than to a regular valuebet, and I actually cant se him calling turn with a hand that he dont call this river with. All around pretty bad played on every street.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-29-2010 , 12:07 PM
Ugh, read some stickies or something, this hand is so bad.

don't limp pre, especially don't limp K8 ugh
don't donk the turn, ugh
don't jam the river

People don't fold at 10NL OP.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-29-2010 , 09:34 PM
Does anyone have any suggestions that don't consist of "Play 10/8 ultra nitty because it's 10NL"?

I want to hear why this is bad, not just "This is bad because stickies say so."

I've read all the stickies and am a winning player at 10NL when I play TAG. I get all that. I understand why limping is traditionally "bad", except it's not really--it's good when you have a hand with some postflop value and you'd rather see a flop against villain's iso raise range (or his limp behind range) than against his flatting range, because you know open raising would fold out all the hands you beat.

It also allows you to play flops with a much higher SPR when you don't get iso raised, so at tables that play more passive preflop it's a good way to see cheap flops with more speculative hands that play better with higher stack-to-pot ratios. So yeah, I know your 10/8 nit style never limps, but it's by no means an inherently bad play.

So yeah, thanks, but I know all of that and I'm interested in learning non-standard lines to work on my total understanding of the game than I am in being a 10/8 set miner making $1.20 an hour.

There are lots of players at 10NL who make lots of money playing limping and flatting lines. Look at those guys running 62/8 with eight buy ins on the table--they play well on the turn and river so their preflop/flop strategy doesn't matter that much. I don't mean any offense, but you guys are just parroting generic super nit strategy and it doesn't really contribute much of anything meaningful.

And uh, yeah, people do fold at 10NL. The idea that "ZOMG NOBODY FOLDS AT MICROS" is a total myth perpetuated by people who don't know how to pick bluffing spots and/or haven't played uNL in three years. The games are by and large very tight these days--there are definitely still calling stations, but the average 10NL player is not a station anymore. He's a 24-tabling HUD bot--that's who this play is aimed at.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Auts
You've got to be kidding me?

Preflop: Seriously, don't. Just don't. Villains are bad and can call there you with pretty much anything that beats you.
How can villains call me preflop when I limp and flat their open raise?


Quote:
Originally Posted by JudyIsApunk
Preflop line is horrible and makes my eyes burn. Fold pre. As played, why overbet that riverbluff? I can see that he folds anything more to a overbet than to a regular valuebet, and I actually cant se him calling turn with a hand that he dont call this river with. All around pretty bad played on every street.
The river play is the only one I was concerned about. Every other play, including the donk bluff on the turn (donk bluffing turn scare cards gets TONS of respect at uNL) was pretty standard.

Evidently you guys are the standard uNL player now.

Last edited by setoverset55; 09-29-2010 at 09:49 PM.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-29-2010 , 10:07 PM
How about trying to range what he would ultra value the flop with.. at no point are we discussing what his range might be here.. what are we trying to get him to fold? what is he giving you 4-1 on a call with? And I see no way around the fact that if he's calling the turn he's not calling the river... what does villain EXPECT you to limp with? your limp call range here makes any sort of boat unlikely.. so what are we repping? J10o? a low flush? What are your stats at the table ATM? I can maybe see limp calling and playing it this way if the board were say 1098 4 4 but I just dont see this working enough, if at all. And the most glaring issue here is how the limp/call range of a standard hero would correlate to this board
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-29-2010 , 10:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by setoverset55
Does anyone have any suggestions that don't consist of "Play 10/8 ultra nitty because it's 10NL"?

I'm not saying play more nitty. Play nitty (which = 15/12-17/14ish I guess?) til you have a solid valuebetting/postflop game then open up as much as you feel you can to exploit people with your super powers

I want to hear why this is bad, not just "This is bad because stickies say so."

Goodo. Ok here we go...

I've read all the stickies and am a winning player at 10NL when I play TAG. I get all that. I understand why limping is traditionally "bad", except it's not really--

This is not the most rigid argument but if you ask any respected winning player who frequents this forum they will tell you that openraising is more profitable than openlimping. Limping is fine in some spots, open limping is not imo

it's good when you have a hand with some postflop value and you'd rather see a flop against villain's iso raise range (or his limp behind range) than against his flatting range, because you know open raising would fold out all the hands you beat.

Are you aware how bad K8s is until you flop a flush draw? Which happens 10% of the time on the flop, which completes another 33% or whatever. So thats like 3% of the time you make a flush. This is not a lot.

Also, folding out hands you beat IS NOT INHERENTLY BAD. Every pot won is vital to your winrate.


It also allows you to play flops with a much higher SPR when you don't get iso raised, so at tables that play more passive preflop it's a good way to see cheap flops with more speculative hands that play better with higher stack-to-pot ratios.

You want high SPR with hands that stand a good chance of flopping hard (hehe). K8s is not going to do that enough. If you had a low PP or a suited ace in the small blind, 2 players limp and you complete then that's fine by me but open limping is baaad. I could tell you why but you already know the reasons I'll give because you've read the stickies

So yeah, I know your 10/8 nit style never limps, but it's by no means an inherently bad play.

10/8 wtf is this, who is saying this? 10/8 is beyond ******ed. And whether or not limping it is an inherently bad play I am 99% certain it is a less profitable play in most situations

So yeah, thanks, but I know all of that and I'm interested in learning non-standard lines to work on my total understanding of the game than I am in being a 10/8 set miner making $1.20 an hour.

Great, there is a lot of room for discussion of non standard lines. I would love a thread which wasn't some cooler or standard valuebetting spot. Imo you have not posted a particularly interesting spot, you have posted a "I want to bluff" spot but there is little cause for us to think it will work. I would bet money no one replying to the thread is a 10/8 set miner

There are lots of players at 10NL who make lots of money playing limping and flatting lines. Look at those guys running 62/8 with eight buy ins on the table--they play well on the turn and river so their preflop/flop strategy doesn't matter that much. I don't mean any offense, but you guys are just parroting generic super nit strategy and it doesn't really contribute much of anything meaningful.

Oh christ it's a level

And uh, yeah, people do fold at 10NL. NOT HALF AS MUCH AS THEY SHOULD The idea that "ZOMG NOBODY FOLDS AT MICROS" is a total myth perpetuated by people who don't know how to pick bluffing spots and/or haven't played uNL in three yearsWTF YOU'RE ON A FORUM MAINTAINED LARGELY BY PEOPLE SPECIFICALLY PLAYING uNL. The games are by and large very tight these daysWRONG--there are definitely still calling stations, but the average 10NL player is not a station anymore. He's a 24-tabling HUD bot--that's who this play is aimed at.LOL STARS

Now I come to think of it, you're right, 10NL must've really changed since the last time I played it earlier this month for like the 5th month (beat)


How can villains call me preflop when I limp and flat their open raise?



The river play is the only one I was concerned about. Every other play, including the donk bluff on the turn (donk bluffing turn scare cards gets TONS of respect at uNL) was pretty standard.


Evidently you guys are the standard uNL player now.

ty idiot
Have fun at the tables OP!

Last edited by vikingkong; 09-29-2010 at 10:50 PM.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-29-2010 , 10:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by setoverset55
I want to hear why this is bad, not just "This is bad because stickies say so."
They're sticked for a reason.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-29-2010 , 11:05 PM
OP, I dont think alot of us are 10/8 setminers making 2 bucks an hour.

But there is some merrit to what you're saying. One of the biggest winners at 25nl on FTP played 30/10 (I forgot his name but he had a 4BB/100 winrate over 400k hands or something).

I mean I think limping is suboptimal and all but its not a huge mistake if done with the right reasons. Limping K8s UTG is prob not the way to go though, neither is turning into a complete spewmonkey postflop.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-30-2010 , 12:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by (.)(.)(.)(.)(.)(.)
OP, I dont think alot of us are 10/8 setminers making 2 bucks an hour.

But there is some merrit to what you're saying. One of the biggest winners at 25nl on FTP played 30/10 (I forgot his name but he had a 4BB/100 winrate over 400k hands or something).

I mean I think limping is suboptimal and all but its not a huge mistake if done with the right reasons. Limping K8s UTG is prob not the way to go though, neither is turning into a complete spewmonkey postflop.
Totally agree, you have to play a style that suits you and you're confortable with, if that makes you a setminer and you're still profitable by all means be one. If it makes you stat wise a loose passive player but you're raking in the profits by all means to that too, if you're winning consistently (over more than a couple hundred thousand hands), chances are you've mastered that style and you're profitable. Yes maybe you could increase your winrate with some adjustments, but couldn't we all independently of our stats?
Some things though no matter what stats you play with aren't profitable and limping K8s UTG is probably one of those, especially when you spew like that on the hand.
HEM stats have some meaning but mean absolutely nothing when it comes to skill, a 9/7 can be profitable just as much as a 45/20 can be, its all in the way you play the game and how good you are at making decisions post flop, a 9/7 doesn't have many post flop decisions to make, either he hits his set or he misses and pretty much is a fit or fold game, a 45/20 will have a lot of post flop play and a lot of decisions to make, he needs to be a good hand reader to be profitable.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-30-2010 , 03:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by acek71211
How about trying to range what he would ultra value the flop with.. at no point are we discussing what his range might be here.. what are we trying to get him to fold? what is he giving you 4-1 on a call with? And I see no way around the fact that if he's calling the turn he's not calling the river... what does villain EXPECT you to limp with? your limp call range here makes any sort of boat unlikely.. so what are we repping? J10o? a low flush? What are your stats at the table ATM? I can maybe see limp calling and playing it this way if the board were say 1098 4 4 but I just dont see this working enough, if at all. And the most glaring issue here is how the limp/call range of a standard hero would correlate to this board
I am repping a low flush, yes. My stats were likely on the order of 35/20.

You say if he is calling the turn, he is not calling the river? Wouldn't this suggest that the river bluff is actually good, if it folds out most of his turn call range?

btw, thanks for the useful response.


Quote:
Originally Posted by hWu
They're sticked for a reason.
Yes, because they are very good for learning the simplest way to be a solid winning player at uNL. And that's great--I really respect and appreciate it. But the tight, solid play style they advocate is by no means the most profitable way to play uNL games, simple and straightforward though it may be.

I believe too many people learn to play one winning style and then presume it's the only style that can be played profitably--hence many of the posts in thread here.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-30-2010 , 03:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by setoverset55
I believe too many people learn to play one winning style and then presume it's the only style that can be played profitably--hence many of the posts in thread here.
I am honestly suprised, if it is profitable to limp-call K8s from UTG.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-30-2010 , 03:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vikingkong
I'm not saying play more nitty. Play nitty (which = 15/12-17/14ish I guess?) til you have a solid valuebetting/postflop game then open up as much as you feel you can to exploit people with your super powers

X-ray vision helps.

Also, a lot of nits at 5NL-10NL go down to like 11/9. That's not an exaggeration and that player type is not uncommon there. I am referring to FTP, are we talking about the same sites here?


Goodo. Ok here we go...

This is not the most rigid argument but if you ask any respected winning player who frequents this forum they will tell you that openraising is more profitable than openlimping. Limping is fine in some spots, open limping is not imo

With all due respect I don't think most of the players at uNL, even the winners, are thinking that deeply about the game. They know one style that happens to win and anything that doesn't fit in that style is dismissed as bad play.

I don't think I'm thinking that deeply about the game, either--but I want to start learning to do so so that I can move toward actually becoming a well-rounded player, not just a guy that figured out one simple style that happens to win at 25NL.



Are you aware how bad K8s is until you flop a flush draw? Which happens 10% of the time on the flop, which completes another 33% or whatever. So thats like 3% of the time you make a flush. This is not a lot.

Why does it need big pot equity to be good? You can win pots in poker without hitting the flop.

Also, folding out hands you beat IS NOT INHERENTLY BAD. Every pot won is vital to your winrate.

Sure, but I'd rather play postflop, where villains can make much bigger mistakes than just folding their one big blind to an open raise. By open raising you are guaranteeing that their range going into the flop when they call will contain only good hands--by limping you are giving them the opportunity to play poorly in unraised pots with weaker hands and very high SPRs.

Limping is just another way to get to postflop play more easily, which is what deep stacked NL holdem is all about. It becomes substantially better as stacks get deeper, because even limping and calling a raise represents only an increasingly small % of total effective stacks. Also works well when your hand could see the flop for a single raise only, but you have 3-bet happy opponents...lots of different conditions can make limping preferable, even open limping. It just depends on your opponents.



You want high SPR with hands that stand a good chance of flopping hard (hehe). K8s is not going to do that enough. If you had a low PP or a suited ace in the small blind, 2 players limp and you complete then that's fine by me but open limping is baaad. I could tell you why but you already know the reasons I'll give because you've read the stickies

Whether or not it flops hard enough depends on a number of factors, ranging from stack size/implied odds to how I think villain will play in single raised vs. unraised pots to whether I'd prefer to play against his flat call range vs. his iso raise range to how much fold equity I expect to have.

There is no hand that's literally always unplayable; you can get away with a lot less pot equity if you have a lot of fold equity.


10/8 wtf is this, who is saying this? 10/8 is beyond ******ed. And whether or not limping it is an inherently bad play I am 99% certain it is a less profitable play in most situations

It's representative of the general assumption that any non-standard play is automatically bad simply because you aren't used to thinking about the game from that particular angle.

Instead of attempting to interpret his range and consider how this play might be interpreted, most respondents just repeated typical conventional wisdom that "omg limping is terrible and so is donking you are awful" instead of really thinking critically about the hand...I don't literally believe they are 10/8 players; it's an exaggeration intended to make the point that they are not willing to consider plays that fall outside typically accepted TAG lines. (lol taglines)

Limping, for instance, becomes a LOT better as stacks get deeper and postflop play improves--but most uNL TAGs simply assume limping is inherently bad and never do it. Why?



Great, there is a lot of room for discussion of non standard lines. I would love a thread which wasn't some cooler or standard valuebetting spot. Imo you have not posted a particularly interesting spot, you have posted a "I want to bluff" spot but there is little cause for us to think it will work. I would bet money no one replying to the thread is a 10/8 set miner

Yeah, I was hoping this thread might be slightly more interesting than most, but nobody here seems interested in actually thinking about this hand. Maybe it actually is really bad, but why? I wanted to spark discussion, not just hear, "omg read stickies this play is bad in generic TAG strategy." How does that help anyone learn anything?


Oh christ it's a level

No, it isn't. There are players doing that and making a lot more than they otherwise would because their opponents will make a lot more mistakes in unraised pots or in pots where they raise limpers than in pots where they called a PFR, because they do the former so much lighter.

NOT HALF AS MUCH AS THEY SHOULD

So? Lots of players there can still be made to fold quite often. Remember that sticky entitled, "Dear uNL, you are weak tight"? Why would the author say that if no one at uNL folds?


WTF YOU'RE ON A FORUM MAINTAINED LARGELY BY PEOPLE SPECIFICALLY PLAYING uNL

Which has a lot to do with why it's so funny that so many of you honestly believes no one folds at 10NL!

LOL STARS

I play mostly on Full Tilt, as I mentioned earlier. There are a lot of tight games at the 5NL to 10NL levels there.


Now I come to think of it, you're right, 10NL must've really changed since the last time I played it earlier this month for like the 5th month (beat)

Either that or you're missing a lot more opportunities to bluff people than you realize.



ty idiot
Why, no problem, buddy. Thanks for your contributions to thread.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Auts
I am honestly suprised, if it is profitable to limp-call K8s from UTG.
Why not? This is 100% opponent-dependent. A lot of people in these games play really badly postflop in this spot--they let me rob them with limp/flat+check/raises and such an awful lot.

The only reason the introductory strategies tell you to avoid limping is because it requires you to play aggressively postflop and choose spots/read hands well. Just like flatting 3-bets OOP--the conventional wisdom is "just don't do it" but it's really not a problem if you're confident in your ability to play OOP without initiative.

Last edited by setoverset55; 09-30-2010 at 04:01 AM.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-30-2010 , 04:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by setoverset55
Why not? This is 100% opponent-dependent. A lot of people in these games play really badly postflop in this spot--they let me rob them with limp/flat+check/raises and such an awful lot.

The only reason the introductory strategies tell you to avoid limping is because it requires you to play aggressively postflop and choose spots/read hands well. Just like flatting 3-bets OOP--the conventional wisdom is "just don't do it" but it's really not a problem if you're confident in your ability to play OOP without initiative.
Fishes aren't folding to your barrels and beter players will dominate you from ip, with beter hands. If you have some data to show us that limp/calling pre is in fact profitable, then by all means show it to us. Sticky threads are conventional wisdom for a reason: because they work. I doubt that this type of playing works in a long term.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-30-2010 , 05:09 AM
I really deeply disagree with so much of what you posted but there's no point thrashing it out. If you think you can make profits doing all the stuff that everyone who has beaten the game in the past and is beating it now advises you NOT TO DO then go for it. Please open limp a ton, play 100k hands and come back and show us how you're doing.

If you want to talk about your line, what hands do you think you represent?

What range do you think villain gets to the river with?

Do you think his calling range is different based on your betsizing?

What stats/reads do you have that suggest he is going to fold here?

Basically, why do you think this will work?
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-30-2010 , 05:47 AM
Ak, AQ, j10 and flush are all in his range, he's probably not folding these holding.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-30-2010 , 06:02 AM
Irregardless of the crap that has been said:

Yeah ok, you want to make a play on villain. Fine. So you c/c+donk on a scare card. Yeah i've seen worse. But when no draws hit on the river and the 7 pairs, do you REALLY think you're scaring anyone who can call you on the turn with anything more than a bluff-catcher? And do you really think most bluff-catchers will give in to the overbet-pot shove *which works because it looks like an attempt to maximize folds and not calls*?
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-30-2010 , 12:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by setoverset55
I am repping a low flush, yes. My stats were likely on the order of 35/20.

You say if he is calling the turn, he is not calling the river? Wouldn't this suggest that the river bluff is actually good, if it folds out most of his turn call range?

btw, thanks for the useful response.

Sorry I meant if he's calling the turn there's no way he's folding on the river.. Now if you say you're repping a low flush your turn play makes littlle sense.. with a low flush would you really want him seeing a river card free? I'd have to say if you're going to completely bluff at this it has to start on the turn. The turn was the real scare card on this board for him. The Second 7 just does nothing because you're not just calling down two streets with 7x... you cant slowplay a set of 77's with that board and if you have something like K7 or Q7 you're raising the flop because the board is so wet.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-30-2010 , 01:02 PM
I just want to say (again) that preflop is simply overvalued by alot of people at this forum. Yes, its better to have initiative and yes, you're gonna get your ass handed over to you if you'd limp on a table full of 2+2'rs, but still... 90% of your winrate comes from turn and river play. Some days "fold pre" seems to some kind of mantra here but against some people you can even open ATC profitable. Its all alot more situational, small preflop mistakes can lead to huge postflop +ev spots and the contrary is also true, playing perfect preflop doesn't mean you'll ever win at this game.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-30-2010 , 01:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Auts
Fishes aren't folding to your barrels and beter players will dominate you from ip, with beter hands. If you have some data to show us that limp/calling pre is in fact profitable, then by all means show it to us. Sticky threads are conventional wisdom for a reason: because they work. I doubt that this type of playing works in a long term.
I haven't done it enough yet to have a meaningful sample size, but I'm interested in finding out more about it. I'll let you know.

Also, not bluffing fish is a huge mistake. There are two ways to profit from someone in poker: They call too much with the worst hand or fold too much with the best hand. Fish definitely do the former too much in some situations, but it's silly to assume they never do the latter. They absolutely do--you just have to read their hands well and find their folding thresholds on various types of boards.

Of course, it's safer and easier to just never bluff them, but there are lots of spots where they fold way too often. Just because they tend to call way too often in other spots doesn't mean they don't have any exploitable folding tendencies.


Quote:
Originally Posted by vikingkong
I really deeply disagree with so much of what you posted but there's no point thrashing it out. If you think you can make profits doing all the stuff that everyone who has beaten the game in the past and is beating it now advises you NOT TO DO then go for it. Please open limp a ton, play 100k hands and come back and show us how you're doing.
I don't mean any disrespect to those people, but you're making the mistake of assuming that because they've found one way to beat the game, anything they don't do must not be profitable under any circumstances. Poker is a game with many different ways to win. A play that fails miserably in one approach might work just fine in another.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vikingkong
If you want to talk about your line, what hands do you think you represent?
Low flushes or turned two pair, mostly. Donk bluffing turn scare cards works just like 2-barreling them. In fact, it works even better against fishy players because it's so blatant. If they aren't considering the fact that you might donk bluff, they often just assume your donk bet on the turn/river means you hit whatever the scare card is.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vikingkong
What range do you think villain gets to the river with?
A lot of marginal one pair hands like KJ, KT, QJ, QT, AJ, AT, etc. He can also have two pair with AK/AQ/KQ, or sets, or a flush himself, but given his failure to raise the donk bet on a three-flush turn, I think most of those hands are probably not in his range. His hand looks pretty marginal after calling the turn.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vikingkong
Do you think his calling range is different based on your betsizing?
Not particularly; it looks like a spot where he calls with his one pair hands because he wants to see a cheap showdown and he isn't quite sure what my donk bet is supposed to mean. If I bet very small I would probably get a few more calls from very weak marginal hands, and if I bet very big I might get him to fold immediately, but I probably wouldn't get many calls from hands that will fold to a river shove.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vikingkong
What stats/reads do you have that suggest he is going to fold here?

Basically, why do you think this will work?
A few reasons:

A) Players tend to iso-raise "weak limpers" fairly wide in order to play a pot in position with initiative against one opponent,
B) Players at this level tend to c-bet any A or K high flop almost every time,
C) Relatively weak players tend to interpret donk bets on scary turn/river cards as strength, so his call suggests that he has a number of marginal hands that he doesn't want to get the money in with and is hoping I don't bomb the river. On that three-straight three-flush board, why isn't two pair/set raising for value/protection if he thinks his hand is good for a stack?

Is he really reasoning enough to value call with the intention of calling all in on the river in order to get more value from my bluffs? If so, then hats off to him, but I think he only does that with flushes and maybe sets or top two.

The river brick doesn't really make much of a difference here; his turn call looks to me like a marginal hand that wants to showdown and is hoping I don't make a big river bet.

That was my reasoning.

Also, please review this guy's post because it makes the point I was trying to make very clearly:


Quote:
Originally Posted by (.)(.)(.)(.)(.)(.)
I just want to say (again) that preflop is simply overvalued by alot of people at this forum. Yes, its better to have initiative and yes, you're gonna get your ass handed over to you if you'd limp on a table full of 2+2'rs, but still... 90% of your winrate comes from turn and river play. Some days "fold pre" seems to some kind of mantra here but against some people you can even open ATC profitable. Its all alot more situational, small preflop mistakes can lead to huge postflop +ev spots and the contrary is also true, playing perfect preflop doesn't mean you'll ever win at this game.
+1

Last edited by setoverset55; 09-30-2010 at 01:39 PM.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-30-2010 , 02:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by setoverset55
Also, not bluffing fish is a huge mistake. There are two ways to profit from someone in poker: They call too much with the worst hand or fold too much with the best hand. Fish definitely do the former too much in some situations, but it's silly to assume they never do the latter. They absolutely do--you just have to read their hands well and find their folding thresholds on various types of boards.

OP, you can't hand read well. And I bluff fish all the time - isolate pre, cbet flop, cbet good looking turn cards. I do this because I know a lot of villains will limp/call and c/f flops, and if I have a decent sample I can know if they're going to fold to a double barrel on a scare card. You have next to no reads

Of course, it's safer and easier to just never bluff them, but there are lots of spots where they fold way too often. Just because they tend to call way too often in other spots doesn't mean they don't have any exploitable folding tendencies.

I agree. Fwiw you can make a killing never pulling huge bluffs vs fish. Vs regs is another thing, but villain in this hand is a fish so lets talk about that

I don't mean any disrespect to those people, but you're making the mistake of assuming that because they've found one way to beat the game, anything they don't do must not be profitable under any circumstances. Poker is a game with many different ways to win. A play that fails miserably in one approach might work just fine in another.

Ughhhh I don't think you're listening. one way to beat the game? I'm talking about the most +EV decisions to make in every situation. But you need a reason to bluff other than "the turn is a scare card and sometimes people fold to scare cards" when you're completely ignoring the fact he is a passive fish who isolated pre! He could have called you, but he didn't. This shows strength, and yet you think he's weak just because he doesn't raise your turn bet? That doesn't make sense unless you don't understand passive fish.

If you look through uBBV, there are tons of hands where players bluff off other players. Coincidentally it's the players who have beaten 5/10NL and moved on to 25/50/100NL that are doing this. And they're doing it for specific reasons based on plays they have observed by those players, with information pointing towards a river c/r being an effective bluff.


Low flushes or turned two pair, mostly. Donk bluffing turn scare cards works just like 2-barreling them. In fact, it works even better against fishy players because it's so blatant. If they aren't considering the fact that you might donk bluff, they often just assume your donk bet on the turn/river means you hit whatever the scare card is.

If this works then I presume you will rip it up and post some awesome stats. In my experience from triple barreling for value fish often do not fold to scare cards. They do some times, but I suspect they are merely folding the bottom of their flop calling range, not folding top pair. Or even second pair.

A lot of marginal one pair hands like KJ, KT, QJ, QT, AJ, AT, etc. He can also have two pair with AK/AQ/KQ, or sets, or a flush himself, but given his failure to raise the donk bet on a three-flush turn, I think most of those hands are probably not in his range. His hand looks pretty marginal after calling the turn.

I don't think a lot of players with fishy looking vpip/pfr will fold these hands on the turn. And I have seen fish slowplay all the time, I'm not sure why you think his hand looks marginal. A lot of fish have a very wide calling range and a much narrower betting range, again in my experience

Not particularly; it looks like a spot where he calls with his one pair hands because he wants to see a cheap showdown and he isn't quite sure what my donk bet is supposed to mean. If I bet very small I would probably get a few more calls from very weak marginal hands, and if I bet very big I might get him to fold immediately, but I probably wouldn't get many calls from hands that will fold to a river shove.

I think this is another assumption that is based on very little. We know almost nothing about this player except he is passive pre flop and has fishy pre flop stats. It's in villains nature to call

A few reasons:

A) Players tend to iso-raise "weak limpers" fairly wide in order to play a pot in position with initiative against one opponent,
Villain is described as passive pre flop by yourself, and he has isolated you. I'm not sure he's thinking about playing in position with initiative, I think he has a hand he likes
B) Players at this level tend to c-bet any A or K high flop almost every time,
I would not expect this to be true of all passive pre flop players. Also, by your own description if he is passive pre flop he is likely to have flopped a nutty hand here
C) Relatively weak players tend to interpret donk bets on scary turn/river cards as strength, so his call suggests that he has a number of marginal hands that he doesn't want to get the money in with and is hoping I don't bomb the river. On that three-straight three-flush board, why isn't two pair/set raising for value/protection if he thinks his hand is good for a stack?

His call could also be consistent with a passive fish who is unlikely to raise because, well, he's a passive fish. He is going to call wide and bet/raise narrow. He's not raising for value/protection because most of your passive fishy 10NL players are not aware of those concepts

Is he really reasoning enough to value call with the intention of calling all in on the river in order to get more value from my bluffs? If so, then hats off to him, but I think he only does that with flushes and maybe sets or top two.

I think you're putting too much thought into this. He's passive playing 10NL, looks like a fish. He likes to call. He's not thinking that much. He has shown strength pre flop and no real weakness post flop considering his passive appearance

The river brick doesn't really make much of a difference here; his turn call looks to me like a marginal hand that wants to showdown and is hoping I don't make a big river bet.

The river is a brick, which a good reason to give up

That was my reasoning.

I just think you're making baseless assumptions, and ignoring the scant evidence we have about this player:

1) he is playing 27/9 and appears passive over a small sample
2) he is playing 10NL
3) he is not fullstacked

I put these together and my immediate instinct is to avoid pulling any huge bluffs vs this guy. I would not give him credit for folding his marginal hands on the river. If the 9% pfr is even close to accurate then he is likely to have a very good hand here anyway.
one more post and I'm done
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-30-2010 , 02:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by (.)(.)(.)(.)(.)(.)
I just want to say (again) that preflop is simply overvalued by alot of people at this forum.

??? This sentence doesn't make sense. What do you mean, "preflop is simply overvalued"? In this case, as in many other threads, people post hands where they make what can only be described as a simple mistake pre flop, such as open limping with a poor hand. Your point implies that somehow you can make up for this by postflop play, but these players are playing 2/5/10/25NL, they are not going to be very good post flop, or they would be moving on up. It's likely they will make a lot of big mistakes post flop by making small pre flop mistakes. As this thread illustrates pretty ****ing well. We were all fish once

Yes, its better to have initiative and yes, you're gonna get your ass handed over to you if you'd limp on a table full of 2+2'rs, but still... 90% of your winrate comes from turn and river play.

Nice stat there, though I expect it is vaguely accurate to winning players because pots are simply much bigger on the turn and river and winning players are going to be winning more pots. But limping pre SIGNIFICANTLY reduces the size of pots on the turn/river. So, umm, what point are you making?

Some days "fold pre" seems to some kind of mantra here but against some people you can even open ATC profitable.

I don't see how this is relevant to someone who is spewing off chips vs passive villains on heavily co-ordinated boards. Opening ATC is for players who are comfortable post flop, OP is not. And I don't know how you get comfortable post flop without being comfortable pre first without losing a **** ton of money.

Its all alot more situational, small preflop mistakes can lead to huge postflop +ev spots nonononono, the whole point of poker is in the long run if it's a mistake it's always going to be a mistake and the contrary is also true, playing perfect preflop doesn't mean you'll ever win at this game. nice strawman to finish off, this argument has nothing to do with anything we have discussed
I appreciate this may not be directed at me but some of the logic in this thread just doesn't add up.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-30-2010 , 02:46 PM
This thread is fun to read. Very entertaining. Please continue with the limp/call idea and why it's good setoverset.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-30-2010 , 03:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vikingkong
I appreciate this may not be directed at me but some of the logic in this thread just doesn't add up.
Nevermind. Im not with OP on this at all, his postflop and preflop play is atrocious. However, You also did a pretty good job misinterpreting what I was trying to say. You are right that when people suck postflop they should prob limit their preflop range etc and first learn to play postflop. But on the other hand of you only play premium hands from any postition you'll never learn anything. This was the point I was trying to make, preflop mistakes are not the reason people are winning or losing. There are plenty of players with unorthodox preflop styles who made it up to the highest stakes or who are beating their current stakes. There are also plenty of people with good 3bet frequencys and an awesome 22/18 style that are big losers.

Also, limping doesnt automatically mean that the pots will be much smaller on the turn and river. As limping might induce a couple of limpers where as raising usually only gets one or two callers. (which is why openraising is always better).

Im with you that limping isnt optimal but getting all angry and saying it is terrible while typing out 1k words seems really overexaggerated.

Maybe you didnt read my previous post itt, maybe that puts it in perspective.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote
09-30-2010 , 05:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by setoverset55
Of course, it's safer and easier to just never bluff them, but there are lots of spots where they fold way too often. Just because they tend to call way too often in other spots doesn't mean they don't have any exploitable folding tendencies.
They fold cause they dont have anything, Fish dont fold hands! If you plan on making money by getting fish to fold tpnk you will have no money, that's for sure.

Last edited by KenThBA; 09-30-2010 at 05:48 PM.
10NL weird donk bluff on A three-flush turn? Quote

      
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