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10NL: Is villain's range thin enough to fold my big draw? 10NL: Is villain's range thin enough to fold my big draw?

10-03-2008 , 08:08 PM
No reads, but my image the entire session has been pretty LAG. The turn shove just screams "boat," and I'm wondering if I'm drawing dead to the 3 of spades often enough to fold my otherwise 15-outer.

Full Tilt Poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BTN): $10.70
SB: $9.90
BB: $19.35
UTG: $10.50
CO: $4.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with 5 4
UTG calls $0.10, CO raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.20

Flop: ($1.05) 8 2 6 (3 players)
UTG checks, CO bets $0.40, Hero raises to $1.20, UTG raises to $3.90, CO folds, Hero calls $2.70

Turn: ($9.25) 2 (2 players)
UTG bets $6.30 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $6.30

River: ($21.85) Q

Spoiler:
Final Pot: $21.85
Hero shows 5s 4s (a flush, Queen high)
UTG shows 9h 8h (two pair, Eights and Twos)
Hero wins $20.85
(Rake: $1.00)
10NL: Is villain's range thin enough to fold my big draw? Quote
10-03-2008 , 08:14 PM
No I think that when people make the flush they slow down a bit to give those drawing the odds to call
10NL: Is villain's range thin enough to fold my big draw? Quote
10-03-2008 , 08:36 PM
6.3 to win 21.85... you need to be good 6.3/20.85=.29 or 29% of the time.
9 spades are outs, 4 3's are outs, 4 7's are outs += 17 outs
52-6=46 cards remain
17/46=number of cards that win you the pot=.37 or 37% of the time you win.

call.
10NL: Is villain's range thin enough to fold my big draw? Quote
10-03-2008 , 08:43 PM
fold pf, don't raise flop.

I would fold the turn as well, you really don't have any clean outs. best case villan has weak 1 pair hand, you only have like 33% equity.
10NL: Is villain's range thin enough to fold my big draw? Quote
10-03-2008 , 09:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by klink10k
fold pf, don't raise flop.

I would fold the turn as well, you really don't have any clean outs. best case villan has weak 1 pair hand, you only have like 33% equity.
what?????????????????? no clean outs? you think the villain 3bet the flop with two spades? what about our straight draw? also raising the flop is awesome imo.
10NL: Is villain's range thin enough to fold my big draw? Quote
10-03-2008 , 09:37 PM
You have an 8 outer at best on the flop, do you always play for stacks in three way pots with 5 high?
10NL: Is villain's range thin enough to fold my big draw? Quote
10-03-2008 , 09:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hERESY
what?????????????????? no clean outs? you think the villain 3bet the flop with two spades? what about our straight draw? also raising the flop is awesome imo.
please stop posting advice, all your posts are extremely wrong...

you are drawing to a 5 high flush on a paired board. It is very very likely that your outs are not clean, considering his range can consist of sets and better draws almost 1/2 of the time. at best he has a 1 pair hand, and you still have like 30% equity at best.

Its a pretty easy fold on most streets here.
10NL: Is villain's range thin enough to fold my big draw? Quote

      
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