10NL TT MP facing probable cbet - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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10NL TT MP facing probable cbet

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06-30-2010 , 09:51 PM

craigensa

adept

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 766

SB is reg and standard TAG 16/13/6.8 over 423 hands, BTN is 29/8/1 over 24 hands.

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $10.14
BB: $10.50
UTG: $10.68
Hero (MP): $10.36
CO: $35.18
BTN: $10.27

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with T

1 fold, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.40, SB raises to $1.70, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.30, BTN calls $1.30

Flop: ($5.20) 9

(3 players)
SB bets $2.50, Hero?

Last edited by craigensa; 06-30-2010 at 09:54 PM. Reason: added BTN stats

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06-30-2010 , 10:13 PM

craigensa

adept

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 766

Any ideas people?

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06-30-2010 , 10:26 PM

tbart

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 105

Board: 9d 4h 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.362% 53.36% 00.00% 8700793 0.00 { TT }
Hand 1: 46.638% 46.64% 00.00% 7604421 0.00 { QQ+, AJs+, AQo+ }

assuming his range is around this, don't think you can fold.
question though is jam or flat, I got yelled at in a somewhat similar thread for raising the flop, here I'm not really sure it matters cause the pot is too big already, so I guess flat incase theres bluffs in his range and call the turn shove

Last edited by tbart; 06-30-2010 at 10:28 PM. Reason: forgot to put JJ in there: makes it 50/50

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06-30-2010 , 10:30 PM

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 48,253

Do we have any notes on villian? I mean he's got one of three hands:

AK/AQ
JJ+
Air squeeze

That's obvious enough, so if we know anything about him, that'll make it easier. Without reads I always see this spot as a coin flip (and shove) 'cause I'm awful.

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06-30-2010 , 10:51 PM

craigensa

adept

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 766

Haven't seen him with anything worse than a set at showdown...the other worrying thing is the button...

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06-30-2010 , 10:58 PM

Atomix

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 316

NL10ers rarely have two barrels.

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06-30-2010 , 11:10 PM

craigensa

adept

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 766

If I flat, what am I doing if button shoves or raises then? Getting it in? By that logic, shouldn't I get it in anyway?

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06-30-2010 , 11:30 PM

BoyWonder089

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 11

I have a very hard time seeing you ahead here. I just cant see a three bet of that size from that tight of a player in a 10NL game with AQ or even AK. Imo, he has JJ or QQ.

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06-30-2010 , 11:38 PM

craigensa

adept

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 766

Quote:

Originally Posted by BoyWonder089

I have a very hard time seeing you ahead here. I just cant see a three bet of that size from that tight of a player in a 10NL game with AQ or even AK. Imo, he has JJ or QQ.

It's probably an isobet hence the sizing.

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07-01-2010 , 12:17 AM

#10

rnb0sprnkles

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 249

Isn't this a standard fold preflop at these stakes? Its like your burning money flatting the squeeze.

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07-01-2010 , 08:57 AM

#11

Huge Lorry

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 106

its prob. a fold pre if you don't know how you are going to play it post.

as played: do you have cbet stats? ie: is it a 70/10 cbetter on flop/turn? If it is, I call and if the turn is not an A or K he'll prob shut it down if he does have a Ax type of hand
If he has low cbet stats you should prob fold to a cbet (pretty obvious i guess)

Button seems fishy, and will probably have some low pp, some suited aces, some broadways, some crap. I don't expect him to raise on this board very often. The board is really dry, so the only hands in his range that beat us are 9s, 4s, 6s, maybe jacks.

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07-01-2010 , 10:15 AM

#12

buzz12586

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 1,292

What is the 3bet % for the SB? If the BTN didn't come along I would say the flop is an easy call since we have position and re-eval on the turn. I guess even with the button there I would still call the flop. If the SB fires again on the turn I am folding.

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