I was genuinely unsure of what action to take on every single street of this hand and it's very possible I made the wrong decision on all of them

Villain is shaping up to be a tight reg: 20/16 over 277 hands. 4% 3bet. 4bet is 16% over a small sample (1/6)


PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 115.5 BB
SB: 109.8 BB
BB: 161.8 BB
UTG: 204.2 BB
MP: 136.7 BB
CO: 407.7 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB


Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, MP raises to 18.6 BB, Hero calls 11.1 BB

Flop: (38.7 BB, 2 players) T 3 K
MP checks, Hero checks

Turn: (38.7 BB, 2 players) 9
MP bets 20 BB, Hero calls 20 BB

River: (78.7 BB, 2 players) T
MP bets 98.1 BB and is all-in



My thought process:

• Preflop: Given villain's low 3bet numbers it feels like there's an argument for all 3 options. I quickly rule out folding as far too nitty. Jamming seems a bit like the opposite. I have position so elect to call.
  
• Flop: Kinda feels like a way ahead/way behind scenario (e.g. AA/KK or QQ/JJ). Villain should have all sorts of suited broadway in his range but I just don't think he does, so decided to check back and give him a chance to stab at it on the turn
  
• Turn: That's potentially a stab. I guess I can give him another opportunity to do that again on the river although it's going to be horrible if a J or Q hits and he goes big
  
• River: Wasn't expecting to face the jam. I'm torn here. These tighter guys don't often over-bet bluff jam. On the other hand what does he have? AA can't be too confident that they're still best. AK seems in a similar situation. I block KK. Does he even have any T's in his 4bet range? It's hard to put him on a bluff as well though. Do 10nl regs ever turn their QQ/JJ into a bluff here? That just leaves AQ/AJ....
  

pre - fine and good reasoning

flop - fine, although i'd prefer just betting myself

turn - you don't really do anything other than call here

river - while I guess most people put their bluffs into the flop node, you still are splitting with AK and his value range that is better than you is very narrow (AA/KK), and imo he can still be vbetting/playing AK like this so you just need to call


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I think it's always great to evaluate hands, but tptk (AK) in a 4bp and asking whether or not you should fold for 100bb eff is probably pretty low on the list. It's possible you can exploitatively fold with a lot more information with some other hands weaker than AK, but this is just too big of a deviation to make with too little information in my opinion.

Well said

The only thing I would add is that checking back otf should encourage villain to find more bluffs than they typically would in this spot.

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i would be concerned about villain having trips

what Tx is villain 4betting??????????

ATs, JTs, KTs QTs unlikey but possible, but i don't think they bet turn(except KTs ofc)

Obv the Doyle Brunson. RIP

I like your post format. I'm gonna steal it.

He can have KK/AK/AA 100% of the time and you still have 30%. It only takes one combo of something that you beat to make it a winning call.

With a 4% 3-bet over a decent sample, the likelihood he 4-bets Tx is pretty low.

Missed that

Thanks for the feedback everybody.

I did end up tank calling and villain had:

You mean he had a hand that wasn't in your pre-flop tree?

Crazy... imagine that.

betting flop will outperform by far even if it’s close in solver.