10NL - TP paired board vs reg - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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10NL - TP paired board vs reg

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04-15-2014 , 02:51 AM

Metoface

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 147

Hi guys,

Got into a spot last night which I need some opinions on please. Villian in hand is TAG reg who obviously has a super narrow value range here, and is FOS a high percentage of the time.

Is it possible for anyone to find a fold here facing the river shove? I only had around 50 hands on the villain at the time, so wasn't sure what to do in this spot vs someone who we're not sure is capable of bluffing three streets.

I guess we should be expecting air most of the time and just call it off?

Thanks in advance

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #25818801

MP: $23.26 (232.6 bb)
CO: $11.81 (118.1 bb)
Hero (BTN): $10 (100 bb)
SB: $11.01 (110.1 bb)
BB: $17.93 (179.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A

2 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, SB folds, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.85) A

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.50, BB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1

Turn: ($3.85) 3

(2 players)
BB bets $2.05, Hero calls $2.05

River: ($7.95) 3

(2 players)
BB bets $8.72, Hero calls $6.05 and is all-in

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

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04-15-2014 , 03:52 AM

CCM

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 6,528

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04-15-2014 , 04:31 AM

xboxfun

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 56

wp, he probably has a strong ace too or is bluffing. Only hand i see beats u here is 44 and AA if he is what you described.

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04-15-2014 , 04:35 AM

xboxfun

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 56

Just saw his hand, totally uncalled for. I dont think its a winning play though (the raise on the flop). I guess you could take a note that he is capable to make moves on paired flops with hands that have showdown value.

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04-15-2014 , 05:14 AM

MMSS

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 4,680

Why would you ever want to fold here?

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04-15-2014 , 05:36 AM

Metoface

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 147

Quote:

Originally Posted by MMSS

Why would you ever want to fold here?

I don't but wanted to make sure that everyone feel the same. At 10NL I sometimes doubt calling river shoves like this one with the logic "very few ppl are capable of running a 3 barrell bluff here" which is incorrect in this situation.

In this case my thought process was more like "villain is repping very narrow value range and is more likely bluffing or spazzing with smaller ace".

What I couldn't work out is why he would raise worse Ax here. Surely then this is a bluff most of the time.

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04-15-2014 , 05:39 AM

Metoface

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 147

Quote:

Originally Posted by xboxfun

Yeah that's the exact note I took on him lol. The board run out also made me decide that if I liked my hand on the flop then I can't fold turn or river.

Thanks for the comments!

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04-15-2014 , 05:58 AM

MMSS

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 4,680

Quote:

Originally Posted by Metoface

We need just over 30% for a call to be +EV. Let's say we need 33% to account for rake a bit (I dunno what we'd actually need) and to make calculations a bit easier. That means for it to be a good call we need 1 hand we beat for every 2 hands that beat us.

If villain has AA (1), 44 (1), A4s (1), 45s (8), 34s (0) that is < 12 combos so we'd need a maximum of 6 hands we beat to be comfortable calling (and I think 45s is a bit of a stretch to include in villains range).

If villain takes this line with AQ that's 8 combos so calling is +EV.

If villain is turning one PP into a bluff that's 6 combos so calling is +EV.

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04-15-2014 , 06:34 AM

Metoface

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 147

Quote:

Originally Posted by MMSS

Makes perfect sense thanks for the elaborate reply.

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