10nl top two pair - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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10nl top two pair

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09-18-2014 , 12:32 AM

maples

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 63

Not 100% sure about this hand. Villain is 30/4 and generally passive over 50 hands

[hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #30756471

MP: $11.14 (111.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $10.21 (102.1 bb)
BTN: $8.76 (87.6 bb)
SB: $21.78 (217.8 bb)
BB: $17.85 (178.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T

MP folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) 9

(2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, BTN calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.75) 4

(2 players)
Hero bets $1.20, BTN calls $1.20

River: ($4.15) 8

(2 players)
Hero bets $2.20, BTN raises to $6.76 and is all-in

I figure when he raises like this, he can have A9,A8. Maybe A4s or 9Ts. More likely a set or a straight.

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09-18-2014 , 12:56 AM

globetrotter

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 17,707

I think his most likely hand is QJ.

That being said:
- you are getting good odds to call
- villain has only a few possible hands that can beat you
- villain could be value betting A8 and will be bluffing at least some of the time (although it seems pretty unlikely here)

I'd have to do the math, but I think you have probably priced yourself in to where you need to call here.

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09-18-2014 , 01:08 AM

maples

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 63

Thanks. I called. He had QJ.

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09-18-2014 , 01:11 AM

K40cheddar

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 2,736

Can't fold. I'd make river somewhere between $3-4 happy to get it in.

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09-18-2014 , 01:17 AM

smokybacon

banned

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 1,390

easy fold once you get raised.

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09-18-2014 , 01:22 AM

Swagneto

newbie

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 25

That card completes the open ended QJ and the gutshot for 76. A loose preflop caller will have these in his range and likes to call with draws and play them passively... I think your sizing is good for flop/turn. I still think I'm bet/folding river with a small sizing for value against any ace / x.

He can also have called with pocket pairs and just using his position to build a pot against you. Don't think many villains will call twice and jam lower two pairs.

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09-18-2014 , 04:20 AM

suri0

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 417

30/4 passive guy won't raise here with a4 or t9s

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09-18-2014 , 05:40 AM

TheBaconWarrior

adept

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 889

Sample size too small to make that kind of assumption.

Villain can do this with worse, especially since shortstacked. Wouldn't be surprised to see Ax some %. Call

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09-18-2014 , 06:02 AM

Zyngapro

centurion

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 199

Think you Can make a tight fold here. The only hand you beat that makes sense is A8, and I don't even know if he is going to raise that.

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09-18-2014 , 06:14 AM

#10

Denjua

adept

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 1,198

50 hands isn't much, but the spread between the PFR & VP is wide enough to know their quite passive, which tells us their river range is very strong, as their so passive I'd B about 90% pot OTF & OTT.
As played Id F top 2P, but the trickier question is what if we had a set? With a set I'd say FFS! and C the shove lol!

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09-18-2014 , 10:28 AM

#11

TheBaconWarrior

adept

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 889

You're still way overestimating the insignificance of a 50 hand sample.

+ when you try to make postflop reads based on preflop tendencies, the small sample size makes your conclusions even more unreliable.

Also look at villain's stack size, he will be stacking off way lighter

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09-18-2014 , 10:49 AM

#12

bailashtoreth

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 2,326

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheBaconWarrior

I agree with this. passive PF does not equal passive postflop, especially if villain hit 2 pr on turn or river. Some will be extremely passive with Ax top pair and then jam with 2 pair.

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09-18-2014 , 11:14 AM

#13

TheBaconWarrior

adept

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 889

Overestimating the significance* is what I meant to say, too late to edit

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09-18-2014 , 12:51 PM

#14

There_There

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 66

Pot sized turn bet to set up for a river shove is good line here imo vs this villain. River probably is a fold cause he will just flat his 2 pairs (I doubt I actually would in-game though).

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09-18-2014 , 12:54 PM

#15

suri0

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 417

30/4 over 50 hands is safe to say that he is a passive fish. You don't need 1k hands for that.

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09-18-2014 , 05:00 PM

#16

There_There

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 66

Quote:

Originally Posted by suri0

30/4 over 50 hands is safe to say that he is a passive fish. You don't need 1k hands for that.

100% correct imo.

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09-18-2014 , 05:21 PM

#17

Zyngapro

centurion

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 199

Yea correct.
And to those who thinks that this is a mandatory Call, I would like to see some hand histories where villain have worse in a similar situation.

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09-18-2014 , 05:53 PM

#18

TheBaconWarrior

adept

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 889

Well if my posts were actually read you'll see you've not addressed the point I tried to make; which is you can't say villain won't raise worse here (postflop), based on his stats (preflop).

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09-18-2014 , 06:10 PM

#19

cho84eva

banned

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 311

it is a fold
difficult fold

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