Villain is 19/18/6.5 over 134 hands.

Has only seen 1 showdown (which he lost, but i didnt see the hand so dunno wot he had).


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($16.90)
BB ($10.05)
UTG ($1.25)
UTG+1 ($20)
CO ($5.70)
Hero ($10.10)

Dealt to Hero 8 8

fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, fold, fold

FLOP ($1.05) Q 9 8

UTG+1 bets $0.85, CO folds, Hero calls $0.85

TURN ($2.75) Q 9 8 2

UTG+1 bets $2.30, Hero calls $2.30

RIVER ($7.35) Q 9 8 2 T

UTG+1 bets $4.80, Hero?


If i played again i would:

Raise the flop, shove turn brick or shove flop if he re-raised.

Also as played would have called river bet as i think an aggressive player would have put me all-in, definately has TJ, JJ, AJ, KJ in his range, but also could be value betting with TPTK hands or 2P that gets there on the river.

Think its really thin anyway, would like to know what you guys think.

don't understand why you're not raising either flop or turn, this flop is drawy as hell

This is correct.

This is not. River is an easy fold for me.

This is a really bad board to be slowplaying. It's also a pretty bad board for cbetting and so villains range is probably stronger than usual. I dont think he folds much of his 2nd barreling range to a flop raise here, pretty much only hands that pick up decent equity on the turn. Having said all this I think raising the flop is a must here.

Def. raise flop or at least turn.

Yep totally agree, think it was his low wtsd which made me call the cbet as i didnt want him to fold, then was kinda hoping for a brick on the turn card. So why i didnt raise it no idea

that's definitely looking at stats way too hard

Hypothetical question - If i raise flop and he shoves is it a fold? I just dont think a 19/18 would shove with TPTK on this board, im only beating AA or KK right?

wtsd doesnt converge that fast

I seriously hope you're joking

no we arent folding a set on the flop. theres a million draws, TPTK, overpairs, etc.. our equity is nice. pretty much never fold a set on the flop. takes an extreme situation like 789 monotone we have 77 and it goes bet->raise->shove in front of us by nits.

The fact that you are beating KK/AA is enough to justify a call.

So pretty much dont be folding unless you have a 99.9999% read on someone, cool glad i posted this now

You have to raise this flop as there are many cards on the turn thats going to kill action and put you to a tough decision should you start facing resistance.

think about how to get value from hands u beat, not obsess over a few hands u lose to. think about what turn cards kill action for u to get value from villain's range.

134 hands isn't a massive sample, but you can take something from it. Is he positionally aware ? What is his utg and utg +1 range like ? That can help you narrow his range down a lot.

I never understand why people slow play sets at the micro's. Big pot big hand. Get the money in as quick as you can. Having called the flop (Which in my opinion was a big mistake) The turn card was a perfect card to jam over the top of him.

As played , it's pretty close. Still think I would close my eyes, grit my teeth and call though.

obvs raise flop - as played I think you have to fold - but i dont know its so marginal, he might think you have a flush draw and be value betting.
Never give yourself hard decisions! btw I dont think k-j is in his range unless its hh or ss

Raise flop wtf