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10nl stars; AJ on 332J2 board 10nl stars; AJ on 332J2 board

09-22-2009 , 01:02 PM
villain is 58/15/1.9 over 101 hands

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (4 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($26.45)
BB ($12.50)
UTG ($11.20)
Hero (Button) ($14.70)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, A
1 fold, Hero bets $0.40, SB calls $0.35, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.20) 3, 3, 2 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.80, 1 fold, BB calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.80) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.60, BB calls $1.60

River: ($6) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $6, Hero ???

given his VPIP, im really not sure what his hand could be? him c/c flop and turn makes me think he doesnt have a 3... maybe a 2?so A2 maybe?
Im such a donk, would appreciate some insight.
10nl stars; AJ on 332J2 board Quote
09-22-2009 , 01:15 PM
Given his VP$IP, you have to give him credit for a 2 or a 3, especially the way he's played the hand. Unless you've watched him play this way before and didn't have it, or he does it often, I'd say it's a pretty easy fold.

And I disagree with you. Him check/call the flop is exactly why I think he has a 3. If he has a 2, he's more likely to bet, but if he has a 3, he's more likely to let you bet as you're not likely to call with a 2 if he raises you.

Considering his VP$IP you putting him on A2 is way too tight.

He could have anything. Hands like 24 93 53 T3 J3 K3 Q3 23 etc. All which beat you.

58% of his hands means he plays more than 1 in 2 hands. Why would you put him on A2?

Against a player like this, you want a flop like J48 and you want him to be holding J2 or J6 where you're holding AJ. You don't really want a confrontation with him on a board like this.
10nl stars; AJ on 332J2 board Quote

      
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