MP: $7.25
CO: $4.40
BTN: $10.30
Hero (SB): $12.70
BB: $9
UTG: $6.50

Pre-Flop: Q A dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.30, Hero calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($1.20) 7 4 Q (4 Players)
Hero bets $0.85, BB calls $0.85, 2 folds

Turn: ($2.90) 8 (2 Players)
Hero bets $1.90, BB calls $1.90

River: ($6.70) 5 (2 Players)
Hero ?

4 to a straight + a bet would commit me. villian is 17/12/3 over 200 hands.
I feel like i am losing much value from hands that check behind when I c/c.

Sure looks like a flushdraw or JQ-AQ. I think this tight, pretty aggressive villain will protect a set or some silly two pair close to 100% of the time on the turn so we don't have to worry much about that. I also think a villain with an af of 3 will try to protect AQ with a raise on the flop or the turn pretty often on a suited board.

I like a check/call since he is likely to bet his missed draw, and he bets QJ and KQ pretty often here as well from my experience.

mmm....for a 17/12/3 i like a small vbet here to get called by qj or kq. They aren't folding to say 1.50-2.50. This would max value against those hands. The 5 helped no real straight draws and if he has 2 pair, oh well.

He may repop. At this level, the repop will be huge for a made straight so just fold to one. If you check they'll overbet a made straight and you'll fold, since i think a q is more likely than a hand that beats you, bet is the result. (the only non-crazy straight hand that does this may be a really slowed set). i like the small vbet here.

Villain was getting over 4-1 to call preflop..that said I don't take his stats into much consideration with respect to ranges. He's pretty aggro postflop which means if you were behind you would know it by now.

Unless you think he has 56, a PSB should get his chips in the middle with KQ/QJ.

What hands does he have that have a 6? He called a flop bet and a turn bet to catch a long shot runner runner? I think that is very unlikely.

A slowplaying set would be more likely than a straight IMO.

So are worse queens
So are busted FDs

IDK I prob c/c in this situation. I don't want to commit my stack with this hand, and I want to give FD an opp to bluff. I may lose values from worse Q, but I think saving $ when you beat and winning extra when he has a busted draw and bluffs more than compensates for it.

56 is open ended on the flop, but i still stand behind a river shove

i like a value bet in this spot. flush draw missed and ur hand is most likely the best at this point.

I don't think it's that unusual for villain to show up with a 6 here. 8h6h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 56o are not that unlikely since he's in the BB with a small raise and two callers. I'm not saying it's a big part oh his range but it should be taken into consideration imo.

if a FD missed, why would a VB be best? Value bets are only good if they are called.

If we are to VB, why shove? I doubt QJ calls a shove if he's decent.

As a default nobody is decent at 10nl, but yea I was gonna say something about the FD vbet comment but I don't think thats necessarily what Sander meant.

I think value betting the river is the right play.

I don't think he has a 6 very often given how the hand/board played out.

I think he checks behind every worse hands and bets most better ones, so check calling is terrible imo.

Let's see how it works mathematically:

KQ, QJ? There are 16 hand combos of these total.

What else? Busted draws: KJ, K10, J10, 910, 9J, 89, 810, 56 - I think this is fair: 8 hands

Straights: I think really only 56 (6 hands total minus 56) 67 (9 hands)
That's 15 hands! I'll be generous and include only 10, with the assumption that he raises the turn with the other 5. So 10 hands

Sets: really only 4's, 7's, 8's - 9 hands; I'll only count 4 hands

Anything else? We'll do 2 hands for 99 and some random hand. (Include with FD hands)

So what do we have if we value bet?
16 hands that call a value bet of $3 win $9.70 (40%)
10 hands that fold to a value bet win $6.70 (25%)
14 hands that shove over us and we call! lose$6 (35%)

EV= .4(9.70) +.25(6.70)+.35(6)
= 3.6+1.6 -1.8
= apx + 3.5


If we check, what do they do?
16 hands (40%)
12 check behind and win $6.70 (75%)
4 bet $3 and win $9.70 (25%)
10 hands (25%)
3 check behind and win $6.70 (30%)
7 bet $3 and win $9.70 (70%)
14 hands that bet $3, and lose $3

EV= .4(.75(6.7)+.25(9.7))+.25(.3(6.7)+.7(9.7))+.35(-3)
= .4(7.3) + .25(7.3) -1
= 2.8+1.9-1
= apx $3.8

Play with the numbers. According to my crunching you'll make 3BB more on avg if you c/c and he behaves the way I said he did.

What's everyones thoughts about 3 betting this preflop? Would make the hand alot easier to play imo.

3-betting an unknown UTG from the blinds with AQ is bad...i fold this pf a lot