Villain is 34/5 over 40+ hands.

What size should I raise to given the remaining stack sizes and the board.

If he has Kx I think he'll call any amount, if he has a draw (most likely FD), then he'll call up to a certain amount. I think most other hands (except the odd 2pair/67 that occasionally turns up) will fold. What do I want to achieve with this raise:

Should I raise to an amount where I can fold on the river if a club comes and he shoves?

Should I raise to an amount where I have to call on the river if he shoves, regardless of what hits?

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

UTG: $12.50
Hero (MP): $20.35
CO: $6.25
BTN: $4.95
SB: $2.90
BB: $10.10

Pre Flop: Hero is MP with 8 8
UTG calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, 4 folds, UTG calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.15) 5 4 8 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1, UTG calls $1

Turn: ($3.15) K (2 players)
UTG bets $1, Hero raises to ?

I'd raise somewhere close to the size of the pot.

villain's remaining stack minus pot, divide by 3. that'll make a close to pot bet on the river get the rest.

so, anything from 3 to 4 should do.

I think that the pot size raise is a sensible amount to raise. That should put him off the FD because he'll no longer have the odds to do call. I doubt you'd see him shove here, or on the river unless hes got a monster. Think what he might be putting you on; with a flop like that he'll probably have you on AA, KK, QQ, JJ or something like AK, AQ. I think you have him by the short and curlies and if the king has helped him, you're likely to get action on the river as well.

A PSB left for the river sounds ok. What do we do:

if a club hits and he shoves?, if a spade hits and he shoves?, if a 6/7 hits and he shoves?

I don't agree with this. There's a line you can set villains to make a call with a draw, IME it's they'll call when they don't have anywhere near the odds to call.

Incidentally I was speaking to a friend of mine who only plays rarely, and he thought he had a 50/50 chance of hitting a flush on the turn or river and a 25% chance of hitting it on the river.

if he's on a fdraw, he's got 7 clean outs.
that makes him roughly a 6-1 dog. if he calls your raise to he's getting alrightish odds. however, his stack is yours if he hits his faulty outs, too. if he's got any non-draw hand (two pair, etc) and pays you off, you're still good.

i'm more likely to call a spade than a clean club river shove. not really sure if i would by default fold to a clean club, though.

I dont quite understand how anyone can conclude that they have a 50/50 chance of hitting the flush on the turn given that theres 4 suits in the deck. Its about 35% on the turn and 18% on the river, but im sure you know this.

I completely understand what youre saying. He may not have the odds but that doesnt mean he wont call. Thats life, so all you can do is make sure you punish them for their draws. I think a pot size raised is good, because if a scare card comes then you'll probably have the option of checking on the river, having raised the turn; unless he shoves and then you can likely assume that he hit the flush. And also dont forget that a paired board will also give you a full house and theres about an 18% chance of this happening.

I know this, I'm pointing out less people know the 2/4 rule at uNL than we imagine. I understand the reasoning behind the 50/50 (4 suits, we get two cards to hit one of them 4/2=50:50). The calculation doesn't include what's out there already.

Of course we can make people pay a price for a draw (a price that will return a -EV). If I'm going to call a shove on the river if a club falls, shouldn't I alter that price I'm offering (to take into account his implied odds after he hits).

I think raising to 4 is about perfect, he's gonna fold to any more than that usually, so it sets up a good river shove because he'll feel committed. If a club or a 6/7 hits and he checks, still shove, and if he shoves, I suppose call (but curse and swear a lot).

Raise to $4.00

Assuming you're going to get it on on the river. He has 7 outs to beat you with a club draw. About 5.58-1 to make it. Raisng to $4.00 forces. him to call $3.00 to win what's in the pot ($8.15), plus $6.00 more from you if he hits. So, $3.00 to win $14.15 gives him implied odds of 4.72-1. Not nearly enough for him to make a profitable call, even if you pay him off. The odds may look attractive to him because he may be thinking he has 9 outs, and only needing 4.13-1 to call. Also this leaves him just $6, and the pot will be $11.15, making it hard for him to fold any decent hand on the river.

Thanks for this.

Given the fact we'd wouldn't be able to work this out at the time, should we over compensate when bet sizing?

For example, give him 7 outs top. That means 14% or roughly 6-1, therefore we need to raise an amount that is roughly more than a 1/7th of the combined effective stack sizes.

It is hard to work out in real time. I think that is one of the main benefits of these forums, thinking about hands away from the table. When you come across a similar situation you should have a good idea of how much to bet, without having to do a ton of math at the table.

My 1st instinct in this hand was to raise to $5 or more, but after thinking about it I realized he didn't have as many out as I thought, due to my potetnial to make a boat. Now I'll remember the next time I have a set, I don't have to bet as much to protect against a flush draw.

I think we need a more general way to work it out. Such as:

I will call a river push, he has x outs (this will always be the same with set v FD (7), TP v FD (9+) etc). Quickly work out the odds.

10 outs 1 in 5
9 outs 1 in 5
8 outs 1 in 6
7 outs 1 in 7

If for example he has an estimate of 10 outs we need to make sure he can't win more than 5 times whatever bet he calls with on the turn. So if we both have 100BBs at the start of the , and he checks to us on the turn (pot is 40BBs - he can potentially win the 40BBs in the pot + the remaining 80BBs in our hand say). We should now bet more than 24BBs or be willing to laydown to a river shove. Is this correct?

I'm not good at making big laydowns, so I just assume I'm going to stackoff if I get out drawn. Therefore I try to bet enough to not give good implied odds. If the pot were smaller or the stacks were deeper, or I had good reads on the villian, the hand would play differently. I recently read PNLHE, and it really got me trying to plan the hand to make decisions easier on later streets.