Full Tilt Poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BB): $21.34
UTG: $9.31
MP: $10.60
CO: $7.57
BTN: $10.43
SB: $4.56

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with T T
UTG raises to $0.35, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($0.75) J 4 T (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn: ($0.75) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, UTG calls $0.50

River: ($1.75) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $1.20, UTG raises to $3.55, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds

villain is 19/16 over 44 hands (no real postflop reads)

dont fold

donk flop against utg raise is fine i think c/c river..on these stakes easy call river

I dont mind donking flop but most of the time HU obv going for a c/r, so i think saying donk flop is somewhat results oriented. As played on the river we're never ever folding and to do so really is bad

You played the hand fine, except for some nitty bet sizing stuff and river fold

Lol what is this?

what do you guys think his river raising range is? shouldn't AK be a pretty big part of it?

AK is just one hand. Folding here is criminal.

which is why i'm asking what you think his range is.

Upon further review, I took the "crushing his range" part out. He does have some hands in his range that beat us. What checks the flop, calls the turn, and raises the river? AK, AQ? Most of his 2 pair hands probably raise the flop. It might be closer than I originally thought.

Still calling cause I haz a set and sets are the nutz.

In my opinion its EXTREMELY close.

Like a turn call with ace king high and two overs and a shot at the nuts, plus he raised from UTG. Yes its only one hand but isn't it the most likely hand?

What else is he raising on the river with? AQ?

I can see him play that hand with jacks or queens or ace queen or AK. He's not raising UTG in rush with QJ.

This is close but I think I would fold unless you have a read on him and you think he's bluffing.

yeah, that was why i asked. i don't think he CB Jx on the flop ever, he can't have QTs because of blockers, and i don't think he raises QTo UTG given his pre-flop stats. which means he never gets to river with two pair.

i also don't think he ever folds turn with AK. he could sometimes raise turn with 66.

he could have 66, AK, or AQ on the river, but i think he raises AQ on the river a VERY small % of the time. he also could have slowplayed sets, but that's not very common on this board (and, if he has 44, he also has JJ).

fwiw, if we give him all 16 combos of AK on the river, he only needs to have 6 worse hands for us to call. even if pot odds can compel us to call on this particular hand, i think it's still an interesting hand to discuss - it's also good to know what to do here if we're raised to a bigger amount.

edit: i might get flamed for this, but i think 44 > TT > QQ

how would you size? given that villain CB flop, is his range strong enough to call something bigger? what range do you put him on when he gets to river and what's his range once he raises?

Imo leading is better than c/r against utg opener who's range should be strong enough to continue. If possition was btn v's BB c/r prob better. As played I couldn't fold river but as above closer than it looks to start with.

line looks very bluffy, its either nuts or air. should have bet flop imo, it's not exactly dry.

if his range is strong to continue it's also strong to cbet. People saying donk the flop are results oriented. I pot the turn and feel pretty good about it, 2 fds and JT on the board. Otr it's a close fold, but don't tell anybody you folded a set.

I agree with the first part. If he has caught any part of that flop, he's usually betting, so donking is pretty bad. And based on his pf range (which should be relatively tight) we need to think about the hands we actually get value from when we donk rather than c/r. There aren't too many, unless you think villain's checking AK/KQ suited on that flop, which he isn't always doing.

But I don't think villain calls turn with many hands that don't bet flop, so potting turn might be too expensive.

its 10nl and your stats is over a very small sample. people do stupid things. id snap call this