10NL river spot - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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10NL river spot

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12-21-2013 , 11:37 AM

Ascalyg

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 25

Villain is 14/10/2,3 over 72 hands

Standard fold OTR? I dont think we beat anything that would bet this amount.

Any thoughts?

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #21840841

MP3: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
CO: $4 (40 bb)
BTN: $5.14 (51.4 bb)
SB: $3.90 (39 bb)
BB: $10 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $10 (100 bb)
MP1: $13.16 (131.6 bb)
Hero (MP2): $19.64 (196.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9

2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.90) 8

(3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.50, SB calls $0.50, BB calls $0.50

Turn: ($2.40) Q

(3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $1.80, Hero calls $1.80, SB folds

River: ($6) 7

(2 players)
BB bets $4.05, Hero folds

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12-21-2013 , 02:59 PM

Ascalyg

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 25

bump

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12-22-2013 , 04:36 AM

dugthefish

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 3,088

Tough spot. The only hands V can have here are 22, 99, JT, and maybe some kind of pair/draw combo. Without some history or reads, I think its a pretty good fold.

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12-22-2013 , 07:23 AM

ScoopMonkey

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 1,910

SB stats are relevant here since, if he's a fish, it may influence BB's likelihood to set-mine with 22.

Also, I'm C-Betting bigger. As played, eh, I probably call, call it a cooler and curse my luck when he shows JT.

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12-22-2013 , 07:25 AM

Thuen88

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 1,329

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12-22-2013 , 09:40 AM

doubl

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 147

Quote:

Originally Posted by dugthefish

Tough spot. The only hands V can have here are 22, 99, JT, and maybe some kind of pair/draw combo. Without some history or reads, I think its a pretty good fold.

I take it you meant 22,88,99,JT. If we say these are the only hands he has otr then I think this is a call.

(8x4)/2=16 combos JT
3x2=6 combos of 22
3x2=6 combos of 88
and only one combo of 99

16+6+6+1=29 total combos

12/29 we win 41.4% 16/29 we lose 55% and 1/29 we split 3.4%

So bearing this in kind we need to call 4.05 into a 6.00 pot
4.05/(4.05+6)*100=40.3%
So we need to win 40.3% of the time for a call to be +EV and we win 41.4% so it's profitable, the chance we split increases our EV and also any bluffs or hands not included in the calculation increase our EV.

This means we're always calling here, anyone spot any problems in this reasoning?

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12-22-2013 , 10:07 AM

ScoopMonkey

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 1,910

I think it's very optimistic to think a 14/10 will call with JTo here pre. And also, he can't have 99.

Last edited by ScoopMonkey; 12-22-2013 at 10:20 AM.

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12-22-2013 , 10:24 AM

KraventheHunter

adept

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 941

Quote:

Originally Posted by doubl

Unless I'm misreading the OP, there are no combos of 99 villain can have. Two are in our hand, one on the board. That slightly changes the calculation. We also don't account for any random combos that may play this way, like 67ss, so maybe it's a wash anyways.

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12-22-2013 , 12:08 PM

dugthefish

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 3,088

Quote:

Originally Posted by doubl

I take it you meant 22,88,99,JT. If we say these are the only hands he has otr then I think this is a call.

Sorry, typo. V's range is 22, 88, JT, and occasional pair/draw combos.

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12-22-2013 , 03:58 PM

#10

Ascalyg

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 25

Quote:

Originally Posted by dugthefish

Sorry, typo. V's range is 22, 88, JT, and occasional pair/draw combos.

So are you saying we should always call here since we beat allot of his value range and the times he decides to spazz out. Or am i misinterpreting?

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12-22-2013 , 05:54 PM

#11

Dovidiu

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 4,419

I`m calling, worried about him donking but think we fare well against his donking range.

He might be donking all his 88, 22 since your flop cbet size is small and he can perceive that you need to have a strong range to bet the turn again against 2 villains, so he doesn`t want turn to get checked through.

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12-22-2013 , 10:29 PM

#12

danny2241

adept

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 1,155

The turn donk is bc his paranoid mind is worried about someone backdooring a flush, a guy with these stats is doing this with QQ/JT more than middle or bottom set. How come noone included QQ in his range am I missing something?

Seeing this line with the nuts so often atm.

Last edited by danny2241; 12-22-2013 at 10:49 PM.

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12-22-2013 , 10:50 PM

#13

ScoopMonkey

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 1,910

Quote:

Originally Posted by danny2241

Imo, QQ is down-weighted since we'd expect a 3B pre some % of the time.

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12-23-2013 , 03:45 AM

#14

donkey_bonker

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 1,355

I think flop betsizing is too small and contributes to making the other decisions harder. Fwiw I'd only give him JTs and 22, 88. There was a bet and a call in front of him, so I can't see a TAG flatting QQ here with enough frequency to make it worth including. 98s actually seems more likely to me than QQ. River call is somewhat marginal, but without reads I think it's probably best.

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12-23-2013 , 07:21 AM

#15

doubl

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 147

Quote:

Originally Posted by doubl

Sorry this is badly wrong, he has no 99 combos obv

. Also he only has 3 combos of 88 and 3 of 22. This gives us 27% to win the pot. I still think its a call given the other rubbish he turn ups with here. Oh and we only need to win 4.05/(10.05+4.05)*100=28.7% of the time to break even. JTo isn't in the top 14% either so not certain he calls pre with that. Sorry for all the mistakes in this lol :/

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12-23-2013 , 07:52 AM

#16

FinkPloyd

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 679

wow, raise turn, stack off. 88/22 more than it's JT or QQ lol, as played snap rivs

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12-23-2013 , 09:15 AM

#17

Boston Matrix

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 2,325

Quote:

Originally Posted by FinkPloyd

wow, raise turn, stack off. 88/22 more than it's JT or QQ lol, as played snap rivs

This. Not sure a 14/10 has much JT in his range, so I think he is heavily weighted towards sets. If he has QQ, meh, it's a cooler and best hand won. With a range made up almost entirely of 88/22/QQ we have to call. I'm pretty tight / nitty and am never folding here. No need to get MUBSy b/c we don't have the nuts.

Lol nitring.

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12-23-2013 , 02:48 PM

#18

danny2241

adept

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 1,155

The villains 14/10 over 72 hands, really don't think we can take JT out of his range based on that..

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12-23-2013 , 03:08 PM

#19

gosmaster

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 235

Why not raising the turn? You probably would end up playing for stack on river but with a much easier decision to take...

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12-23-2013 , 03:59 PM

#20

charleymrphy

stranger

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 11

72 hands at 14/10 is not enough to take JTo out of his range.
That being said I'd still call because of the random junk he could have.

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12-23-2013 , 07:12 PM

#21

Boston Matrix

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 2,325

Quote:

Originally Posted by danny2241

The villains 14/10 over 72 hands, really don't think we can take JT out of his range based on that..

Agreed, but it is prolly only JTs. Given that he also likely 3B's QQ sometimes, I think in terms of putting a weighted range into stove, QQ/88/22 is going to be very close for calc purposes.

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12-23-2013 , 07:35 PM

#22

etipac

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 347

Bet more on flop and I believe I am more calling here.

Etienne

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12-23-2013 , 07:55 PM

#23

iFLY

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 114

Quote:

Originally Posted by donkey_bonker

I think flop betsizing is too small and contributes to making the other decisions harder. Fwiw I'd only give him JTs and 22, 88. There was a bet and a call in front of him, so I can't see a TAG flatting QQ here with enough frequency to make it worth including. 98s actually seems more likely to me than QQ. River call is somewhat marginal, but without reads I think it's probably best.

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12-25-2013 , 04:21 AM

#24

TiltedDonkey

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 2,975

Bet more on flop.
Raise/stack turn.
Call river. Raise river?

Folding would be criminal imo.

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12-25-2013 , 07:19 AM

#25

FinkPloyd

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 679

folding river as played is too dumb, you must be nit beyond nit to not be raising turn and folding river

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