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10NL - River Bet/Fold After Draws Complete? 10NL - River Bet/Fold After Draws Complete?

05-19-2012 , 03:55 PM
Villain is 53/28, 0% 3bet over 40 hands, 33% fold to F cbet and 33% raise F cbet (6 hands), 1 for 1 fold to T cbet and the following notes:
[P] 4Bet+ range {AKo} (1)
[T] Called two 1/2 Pot or greater barrels w/draw (1)
[R] River raise (bluff) (less than top pair) (1)

CO was 33/0 over 6 hands, bought in short, and had open-limped twice (limp-called once, limp-folded once), so basically appeared to be a fish. BB is a 47/5 whale. I am running 22/18, 100% F cbet (5/5), 50% T cbet (1/2).

Merge - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: $13.12
CO: $5.09
Hero (BTN): $31.46
SB: $10.17
BB: $16.14
UTG: $10.00

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has K J

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.20, Hero raises to $0.70, SB calls $0.65, fold, CO calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.20, 3 players) 6 7 J
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $1.00, SB calls $1.00, fold

Turn: ($4.20, 2 players) K
SB checks, Hero bets $2.80, SB calls $2.80

River: ($9.80, 2 players) 8
SB checks, Hero ???

Preflop, although I technically 3bet the CO, I was really just treating the CO's min-raise as a limp. So my sizing was somewhat between the 4bb I would raise to if he had limped and the 9bb I would have raised to if he had opened to 3x or 2.5x. I don't really mind if the SB and BB come along, because they seem likely to call with dominated Kx and Jx hands

The flop and turn are obvious value bets, though I really hate the sizing of my flop cbet (should be $1.65 or so). The turn bet is OK, though I could probably have made it 75% psb rather than 66% psb.

On the river, is this a shove (villain has $5.67 behind) or check-back? Villain's actions are consistent with him calling down with a draw, a number of which got there. I could clearly get value from 2-pair, but I think that this villain would have check-raised a 2-pair on the flop or turn (which is why I don't think he has any sets in his range), so the only likely 2-pair hands in his range seem to be J8, 87 and 86 (and 87 and 86 are folding the turn some of the time).

The other draw he might also have is 98, but I'm not sure he is going to call off the rest of his chips to a 3rd barrel with 3rd pair. Thoughts?
10NL - River Bet/Fold After Draws Complete? Quote
05-19-2012 , 04:19 PM
Bet more on the flop. Its close but i think u can still shove river
10NL - River Bet/Fold After Draws Complete? Quote
05-19-2012 , 04:35 PM
I prefer calling pre-flop.

I think you should bet more on both the flop (~$1.80) and the turn (~Ł3.50).

I'd be checking behind on the river. One of your notes was that he "called two 1/2 Pot or greater barrels w/draw (1)" so he may be capable of check/raising you here, meaning you'll probably have to fold.

Do you have any idea of his range after he calls a 3bet (out of position)? Would he check/call you on the flop with a J and then call a K turn or with a set? If he had 98 do you think he'd be calling a river bet?

Checking back also helps you gain information on how he played the hand, which could be valuable in the future.
10NL - River Bet/Fold After Draws Complete? Quote
05-19-2012 , 04:45 PM
with what he has left behind you're usually going to get called by Jx (and worse) type stuff on the river, so i think its still a pretty easy value bet even though its no the greatest card ever.
10NL - River Bet/Fold After Draws Complete? Quote
05-19-2012 , 05:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rickie2Agg
I'd be checking behind on the river. One of your notes was that he "called two 1/2 Pot or greater barrels w/draw (1)" so he may be capable of check/raising you here, meaning you'll probably have to fold.

Do you have any idea of his range after he calls a 3bet (out of position)? Would he check/call you on the flop with a J and then call a K turn or with a set? If he had 98 do you think he'd be calling a river bet?
Thanks. He only has about 1/2psb behind, so we can't bet/fold. The question is how often villain calls off the 56bb in his stack.

I don't have any info yet on what he calls a 3bet pre oop, but because of my preflop sizing, he probably treats it as an iso of the fish in the CO. If he always calls with 98, I think I have to shove. I discount 98 from his calling range, though (i.e., maybe 3 combos).

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaycareInferno
with what he has left behind you're usually going to get called by Jx (and worse) type stuff on the river, so i think its still a pretty easy value bet even though its no the greatest card ever.
So you think the following river calling range for villain is too tight?
{AJs,AsTs,As9s,As5s,As4s,As3s,As2s,QJs,QsTs,Qs9s,J 8s+,T9s,98s,87s,54s,AJo,QJo,J8o+,T9o,54o}
10NL - River Bet/Fold After Draws Complete? Quote
05-19-2012 , 05:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SCF
Thanks. He only has about 1/2psb behind, so we can't bet/fold. The question is how often villain calls off the 56bb in his stack.

I don't have any info yet on what he calls a 3bet pre oop, but because of my preflop sizing, he probably treats it as an iso of the fish in the CO. If he always calls with 98, I think I have to shove. I discount 98 from his calling range, though (i.e., maybe 3 combos).
Why do you have to shove? If you shove against 98 how often are you going to get called?

I can't see him having a J in this situation because of the check/call on the flop. I can't see him having a K either, although there's a small chance. I can't think of anything other than a flush here.

I'd just check back and be happy to gain some information.

Care to post the result?
10NL - River Bet/Fold After Draws Complete? Quote
05-20-2012 , 12:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rickie2Agg
Why do you have to shove? If you shove against 98 how often are you going to get called?

I can't see him having a J in this situation because of the check/call on the flop. I can't see him having a K either, although there's a small chance. I can't think of anything other than a flush here.

I'd just check back and be happy to gain some information.

Care to post the result?
The pot is $9.80 and villain has about $5.60 left in his stack. I can't very well bet/fold here. I suppose I could bet $3 to fish for a call, but he's going to shove any hand that beats me, and I'm not going to be able to fold getting 6:1 because he just might bluff (I had seen him bluff the river before), so betting less than his stack is basically a negative freeroll.

FWIW, I checked back and villain showed 98. I think it's unlikely that he would have called a river bet, but I think J8, 87 and a number of other 2-pair would have called. I also think he could have called down with AJ, though this villain was a bit wild and seems likely to raise TPTK on a drawy board.
10NL - River Bet/Fold After Draws Complete? Quote

      
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