Villian here is a decent reg who is 18/13/2 over 155 hands, played pretty standard - nothing unusual or out of line.

NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($10.26)
BB ($5.40)
UTG ($26.84)
UTG+1 ($3.50)
UTG+2 ($17.50)
MP1 ($9.69)
CO ($10)
Hero ($19.73)

Dealt to Hero Q A

UTG raises to $0.20, fold, fold, MP1 calls $0.20, CO calls $0.20, Hero raises to $1, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.80, MP1 calls $0.80, fold

FLOP ($3.35) 9 K 9

UTG bets $1.75, MP1 folds, Hero calls $1.75

TURN ($6.85) 9 K 9 3

UTG checks, Hero bets $4.40, UTG calls $4.40

RIVER ($15.65) 9 K 9 3 3

UTG checks, Hero bets $12.58 (AI),

I decided to float and then stab on the turn if he checked. He tanked for a bit then called. Thoughts about the shove on the river? I don't typically take lines like this against most 10NLers fwiw.

I don't like it - what do you rep? KK and 99 and that's about it. AK checks back otr right? All I'm saying is you rep so thin and he's never folding 9x (maybe Kx but that's doubtful)

True, but I don't think he checks a 9 or AK, QK on the turn hardly ever after I just call the flop. I felt there was a decent chance he's holding a medium-ish pair like TT. With my action pre-flop I'm mostly repping QQ+, AK. I hadn't 3-bet pre often, and when I did it was in the blinds vs. a steal, not in a multi-way pot.

You shove QQ otr here????? Wow - shocks me - he has QK, AK or 9x for sure imo

I don't think his call on the turn necessarily dictates he has those hands for sure. They're certainly in his range however. But my thinking at the time was, he's a pretty good reg (by 10NL standards at least) and is aware that I'm capable of betting the turn with worse than TP or trips if he shows hesitance on the turn after betting the flop, which would mean he could call slightly lighter than you might think.

So you think he's calling with 88 ott what about JJ? I seriously doubt that - if he has Kx, he knows that the river hasn't changed anything and if he was ahead, he still is now. I'm sorry, I just think a bluff in this spot is bad but that is because I have differing opinions on the range which you believe he will call with. I'm sure that calling with 88 ott is not a good play (and the same with JJ). But if you think that he has those in his range ott and will fold those to a river shove, good for you and then bluffing is fine. But if you were so sure of that, you probably wouldn't have posted it here then would you? Without trying to start a fight/ be disrespectful, I disagree with what you have said about his ranges for ott and otr.

No worries. I wouldn't expect a ton of agreeance in regards to that.

I wasn't so sure of that at all, just that it seemed possible he can have a slightly wider range. Yes, in a vacuum it would be a bad call for him ott with TT or JJ. But given the potential for UTG to be a real thinking player, I think he can be seeing my flop/turn play for what it truly is - a float and steal attempt. Upon which he can be thinking that his TT is still good. If that were the case, then I'm only winning the pot with a river shove and he folds a good amount of the time he isn't holding a 9 or AK, KQ.

Hell, I dunno maybe it is worse than I think. lol

This is pretty bad. I wouldn't give anyone at 10nl credit for folding anything. I really doubt he's a 'decent' reg when he minraises UTG, flats OOP then makes a silly donk bet. Save the bluffing until you move up to where people can hand-read.

Having said that, not only is this bad against someone bad, it's pretty bad against someone good. Unless villain thinks you're good enough to value bet thin then the double paired board means that your range is super polarized, and much more heavily weighted towards bluffs since you have precisely zero 9x/3x in your pre-flop range.

I'm not sure I even like the 3bet pre. If he is a decent reg then his UTG opening range isn't 13, probably more like 4-5 but you didn't say what his PFR UTG numbers are. Does he donk the flop much in 3bet pots where he was the PFR from EP? This smells like AK to me.

Garon

I agree

The more I look over this hand in the replayer, the more I agree with your second point. The board double-pairing on the river kinda makes this look like a shove-and-pray-bluff to a player that's really able to interpret the previous action.

As a guy that's recently transitioned to cash, I pretty much never try these lines out, esp not 200 bbs deep. And I understand why it's strongly advised against in uNL. It just seemed like an okay spot to try it at the time. But I can see now, a day later, it really wasn't. I don't really plan on doing this at these stakes ever again.

For the record, I did get a fold however