Dude
1) Nits flat AK all the time
2) He doesn't have the nuts when he bets this turn?

1) Not solid ones and based on stack size and op's description I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume AK would be in his 3bet range.

2) Not if you think he flatted with AK.

I'm folding turn, I never said otherwise, but the hand, "as played" is a fold on the river because any nittag betting 2/3, 2/3, pot has the complete nuts come river even if I (as in OP) made a mistake by calling the turn.

K high dry boards are prime flops to c-bet or lead with a good deal of your range.

What?

Since when are nits "solid"?

And AK has us beat and is pretty much the nuts on flop/turn/river

Whatever he has, he has us beat. Fold turn, don´t feed nits. Easy game.

Nah, the results don't have much to do w/ my opinion they just reinforce it for me - when he bet the turn I said right there "okay so either 22, quads or nothing?" and continued to spam my call button.

I'd agree that folding turn is better than folding river, I'm just saying I'd never be able to do it. I'd probably end up convincing myself he might have KJ or something and going for thin value against me because I'm crazy.

There are alot of 14/9 16/12 guys who I consider solid and play well, even if not optimal. He could also be 14/9 over that particular hand sample on that particular day. You know as well as I do that when we multi table that our stats can vary from table to table. When I see someone running 14/9 I don't assume they are great players but I'll give them more credit when it comes to fundamentals. Most people don't intuitively sit down and run 14/9, they've probably done some reading, like us and don't flat AK unless they think they are being fancy or have weak tight tendencies. Unless I see him do it I'm not going to assume leak.

Second, I don't want to get into a discussion on the semantics of nuts. I consider nuts to be hands he wouldn't fold regardless of opponent actions. Looking through some of my hands in my database I find alot of tags c/ calling the turn and value betting river. I think if a tag AK were to get raised big on the turn vs another tag/reg they are going to fold that hand at a decent clip.

To me, your two points contradict each other because if he is leading the turn with the nuts then can he really have AK if that isn't the nuts on the turn if faced with a big reraise?

If an uncapable nit is repping a very narrow range, he has it.
Let it go.
Stop feeding these guys please.

lol I like the evolution of your posts in this thread.

Let me ask you this. Say you ****** spasm and call the turn, you are 100% folding this river right?

If i ever call turn, i am snap calling this river.

Btw i posted 3 times in this thread and said it is a fold on turn each time.(just realised i said it twice too much =))

+1 Valuable lesson

I know I was teasing you. I agree turn is a snap fold.

I simply can't understand the logic in this particular situation of calling the river. One pair doesn't bet pot, and if it does it's certainly not a weaker second pair (weaker K). If ever we call turn, are we only calling river here with the assumption that villian has air? If we make a mistake on the turn, why are we compounding by making the river call especially given the A hitting. Aren't we merely feeding the nit as you put it?

We only beat a bluff on turn. That is why i´d fold there. This guy is not bluffing
And on river, we still beat a bluff. Doesn´t change anything.

What poker principle is it that keeps us from changing our mind? It's one thing for a nitreg to two barrel and another to fire three bullets with a huge pot bet. Wouldn't we have to have a particular read to make the assumption that he could go crazy with nothing?

That is why we are folding turn.

I get that.

I'm asking you whether or not this bet on this river with this card from this villian wouldn't convince you that the river is a fold even if you called the turn thinking he had air.

You need a read to call that turn. And it is better to stick to your read. At one point you will be only making money with your reads in poker.
If he was bluffing, A is the perfect card to barrel.

If he was bluffing, A is the perfect card to have in his range.

I do agree on the read bit, but the question of what he would bluff with is also narrowed significantly. Hands like AQ, AJ, AT.

Think about your calling range.
Do you think he is gonna bet AJ, AT, AQ like that on river?
And if he is gonna barrel that A %100 of the when he is bluffing, what % of the time he is gonna have it?
Btw if i am calling here with KK, i am also calling with TT, ducy?

You'd flat call with Kings full? I'm sorry, I think that's gross and weaktight. So many worse hands would call a shove. I'd also fold TT on the river.

Older hand, but you get the idea, I have a couple of these in the database and learned to start folding that river when I was still playing 10NL. At no point until the river did I think I was beat:

PokerStars, $0.05/0.10 NO Limit Texas Holdem Cash Games, 6 Players
Hand Converter by Pokerhand.org

Board:
UTG: $8.15
UTG+1: $4.85
CO: $15.20
Button: $16.05
SB: $3.80
BB: $10

Dealt to CO 5 5

Pre-flop:
UTG raises to $.40, (1 folds), CO calls $.40, (3 folds)

Flop: ($.95) 4 3 6 (2 Players)
UTG bets $.70, CO calls $.70

Turn: ($2.35) 3 (2 Players)
UTG bets $1.70, CO calls $1.70

River: ($5.75) A (2 Players)
UTG bets $3.40, CO calls $3.40

Results:
UTG Showed A Q
CO Showed 5 5

UTG had nit/reg stats and reloaded but didn't have auto reload on.

he is a fish who might even be valuebetting before.
and he is the preflop raiser in this hand.
has nothing to do with this hand.


and obviously we flat this flop with KK, 77...


last post, i meant KQ, not KK.

Who is a fish? My villian or OP's? You think my guy was vbetting with air? A reg? And if you are talking about the OPs villian Why is he a fish? Because you say so, or you have some read from the OP that I didn't get? Neither line in either hand was fishy.

Alot of nits UTG raising ranges and sb calling ranges are pretty polarized and similiar. Range was close and the point was nitregs two barrel with broadway OOP and continue value bet the river when they hit any part of their hand. Is he ever checking this river and risk having it checked behind? All these guys understand is betting the river for value at 10nl.

Your villain is a fish who might be thinking his AQ high is good.
I bet if you raise that guy, he will call with AQ high.
Cbetting and donking into pfr is not the same, ducy?
I feel like i am getting levelled here. Out.

What makes my villian a fish besides you saying so. He isn't betting for value with air, he's betting to make me fold the turn. How is this not obvious to you? And you are so sure he'd called a turn raise. Do you realize how spewy and terrible that is? He's a reg running 22/19 and I run about 24/21 and we have no unusual history. WTF inspires him to grow durrr balls and bust out such ridiculous play by bet/calling a very connected board on the turn vs a reg with complete air OOP. He has 12% equity against any pair. You have yet to give even a remotely sensible argument as why you make the assumptions you do.

I know the difference between cbetting and donking asshat, but you've apparently resorted to straw man arguments to try and push a point which you can't support. Claiming to be leveled is one of the easiest ways to pussy out of a debate (Oh, and pompously phrasing all your points in a manner that leads to you asking me a question so you can end it with ducy is pretty douchey, ducy?)

To OP:

Fold turn. If you call turn because you think he has air, consider his pf range based on his stats when he pots river on a big card. Or just blindly stick to your reads and pray that nits don't call or bluff with aces.