Okay, let me ask you this, if you fold KcQx otf, you flat XcXc, the flush completes ott, V checks, what bluffs then do you have?

OP, I would call OTT.

Against a regular, or a genuine unknown (once they donk the flop, they are no longer an unknown, they are a fish, although precisely which sort needs to be pinned down) we have fold equity. Against the sort of fish who donks, we don't have much fold equity, but our implieds are pretty good, especially with the small double-donk bet size.

Call, and hope the river is a red nine.

We turn pp into bluffs, a2, a4.

I still think raising is better than folding.
Look how it actually played out, we hit one of the best turns and get to see a river for 4bbs because V is clueless vs our aggression.

I agree the turn is definitely a clear cut call. Flop is the tricky spot. Okay here's the river card!

10NL 6max 100BB Effective

Hero opens to 2.5BB in hijack with KQ everyone folds to BB who calls.

Pot is 5.5BB - Flop is J43

BB donk leads 3.5BB - Hero raises to 12BB - BB calls.

Pot is now 29.5BB

Turn is T

Villain donks 4BB - Hero calls.

Pot is now 37.5BB

River is Q

Villain donks for a 3rd time and bets 23BB into a 37.5BB pot - Hero?

Fold. We aren't worried about being exploited.

Okay but does it matter that we block FDs and Villain can't have AK but I can?

I can see some merit to that, however, I personally would much rather use OP's specific holding or similar KcX hand.

Do you mean you feel raising is better than calling?

Against most opponents, I would call this river since this is one of our best calldown hands. We block straights, flushes and have top pair to boot. However, against this specific opponent, I think we can get away with overfolding since I think this is almost never a bluff or worse hand going for value and I'm not worried about this opponent exploiting us.

Recs can absolutely show up with AK or any other sort of randomness you can think of.

Line is way too fishy for me to fold TPGK otr. and calls.

I think both raising and folding are better than calling.

^^^^^

Can make a good case for folding river after we raised flop. We don't beat anything .

At the turn raise again, villain is just an obvious fish that's just clicking buttons at this point. Look to jam basically any river after doing so.

Meh, I guess just call now then.

it's played fine, call river now
doesn't work like that

sure it does.

Our hand needs 28% equity vs his range to make it a profitable call. We have that in my opinion, especially when you factor in that we are IP and he could just be clicking buttons and be prone to making mistakes later in the hand.

No it doesn't. It would if we were all in.

You can certainly build a defense range that has this hand in it. I looked at MDF and constructed a defense range based on 61% of my HJ open range since OP didn't post his. I can get down to 147 (61%) combos with this hand in it, but if I need to go much lower than that this hand is within the next 10 or so combos I chop. My HJ open range is pretty wide around 20%, so if OP is opening tighter than folding this hand becomes even easier.

Consider that this is one of the worst hands in our defense range to where its a borderline fold. Don't we normally raise with the most polarized hands in our range? If this is the bottom 10-15 combos in our defense range, we should be raising with it otherwise we won't have a balanced range.

We don't know if this guy is a reg or a fish so we should just take a default strategy to raise with our best and worst hands and adjust as we get more information.

I don't know what else to say. It's called pot odds and is definitely not restricted to just when going all-in.

None of these stupid calculations are ever needed-- it's beyond a waste of time doing this bs. And we absolutely know that villain is a button-clicking fish based on every action in the hand.

If you go through your database you will find that these call from the blinds followed by a donk bet on the flop is almost always the biggest fish out there. I'm going to assume he is a fish based on my previous experiences rather than assume not.

As such, I am not raising a polarized range. This is why right from the start I said that against a reg I would raise more than I would call but I think this hand plays better as a call against a button clicker.

I see.

Seeing as how Oj doesn't want to expand on his viewpoint, I'll just say that I agree with him. There's way more to think about when calling otf than "pot odds".

Mainly equity realization. Pot odds get complicated when their are still two more streets to go. I like the way I played the hand up until the river where instead of calling or folding I shipped it AI thinking I block FDs and that Villain can’t have AK. But In retrospect I think a call is probably best.