Pertinent stats: V c 2b OTB 111/1255 times or 9%. His range is pretty snug here pre facing an UTG open against another reg, something like 55-QQ, big suited connectors, ATs-AQs. He won't 3b them often vs UTG as his 3b% vs UTG is quite literally only 3%.

I saw the flop and immediately thought this flop crushes V's BTN flatting range pretty hard and I didn't want to play a big pot otf, oop so I x'd. Mistake #1, but, probably not awful against this V.

Turn: I sort of hated my turn xr after the flop xc as soon as I did it. V is going to continue with every hand that beats me and probably xback sdv hands once the 9 comes. Agreed? Fairly certain this is where the hand went completely awry.

River: Way too thin, however, I felt like it was a must after I xr'd turn. Some of V's draws improved and I need to get value from AhQh, QhJh, KhQh, and maybe a stationy ATs, JJx.

How terrible is this line?

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 25.74, PFR: 19.68, 3Bet Preflop: 6.76, Hands: 384)
BTN: 225.2 BB (VPIP: 22.83, PFR: 18.19, 3Bet Preflop: 6.16, Hands: 16,942)
SB: 103.5 BB (VPIP: 25.48, PFR: 16.86, 3Bet Preflop: 9.84, Hands: 3,675)
BB: 85.3 BB (VPIP: 51.92, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 54)
Hero (UTG): 117.6 BB
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 22.74, PFR: 18.81, 3Bet Preflop: 8.51, Hands: 1,371)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) T 5 9
Hero checks, BTN bets 5 BB, Hero calls 5 BB

Turn: (17.5 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero checks, BTN bets 12.5 BB, Hero raises to 35 BB, BTN calls 22.5 BB

River: (87.5 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero bets 74.6 BB and is all-in

I don't think the flop is a mistake. In fact with no it is probably preferred.

Just x/c the turn - the SPR is too high to do this since Villain has 100BB behind after he bets 12.5BB. If he ships over your turn XR it's game over.

Turn XR should be more polarized, KK is strong but it's still in the middle of your range. Our turn XR should be boats/trips/ and then some non Ax draws and 5x for bluffs.

I can see the reason for checking flop, but why don’t we just x/r the flop instead of turn? Lots of draws that can continue.

Didn't wanna build the pot with KK with a flop xr.

The reason I xr turn was because it removed a lot from his value range. It's the only reason really. Just not sure if it was sufficient. V should never 3b this turn and I don't expect him to either. I'm just wondering if small hand, small pot is what I should have said to myself there.

Why would Villain never 3bet shove this turn? 55/TT would if he puts you on 9x - he should also ship boats to get value from combo draws since a hand like QJhh may just shut down OTR if it misses.

i think you are on the right track with the small hand, small pot line of thinking but it's the SPR that makes the XR not as effective - if Villain had started the hand with 50BBs this line is fine.

I would check flop 100% in this scenario. C/r sets, T9s, dominating heart draws, and backdoor spades. KK plays pretty good as a c/c here. You punish him for betting his medium strength 1 pair hands, and with his heart draws you aren't very far ahead anyway. If it checks through you can bet turn and maybe get some value from hands that you'd fold out on the flop.

Turn c/r is not good IMO. C/c down.

I'm always check-calling flop. Likewise on the turn. I'm not sure what you're doing there. You have some nines that play like that, but you balance with bluffs, not with kings!

Over valuing my hand, ofc.

So here is my problem, do we really have boats or quads ott if I xr? The more I think about this, the more I don't think I should have a turn xr range after xc otf. It's never nutted and only contains a few 9x hands; A9s and 98s.

Don't like this line at all. If he has us crushed we're losing way more money than we would normally and we're scaring off non-mouthbreathers with a lot of weaker hands that they may bet if we just x/c or simply bet.

Because my line is pretty lol FOS unless I xc range otf. I'm probably never doing that on this texture. My strong hands and draws are xr or betting flop. Maybe that's a mistake?

@Markulous, do you bet or x flop?

I think you can go either way with x/c or betting the flop. I typically bet because people are more stationy than aggressive typically at micro stakes. Also, since you're OOP, it makes the river awkward since we don't know if villain will fire another bullet. But of course villain isn't calling river with air after 3 bullets anyway so x/c all streets isn't bad at all. Just don't x/r with overpairs unless you have specific reads that villain is a LAG whale that will b/c anything.

I think x/c is preferred on this flop with no heart. I hate the turn x/r for all the reasons you listed, and river is likely spew. Were you tilted in this hand?

I'm just going to pile on the hate for that turn play.

I think you can make arguments for both things. For betting you can get value from AT/KT/QT/JT, plenty of heart draws, QJ, 78, QQ, JJ, maybe even KQ (one with a heart) If turn bricks, fire again, if there's a bad card on the turn, then we can slow down and x or x/c.

I had enough presence of mind to xc flop, so I don't think so. More fatigued than anything. It was one of those moments where the brain yells at the finger, "WTF are you doing, stop?" It was my last hand of the session thankfully.

Lol'd. .

Agree with the logic. I think against this particular V I'm inclined to x a lot more than bet. Some players I can bet flop, x jam turn and get called by JT.

I think you can, and possibly even should, have a turn check-raising range, but the frequency is probably low (like 5-6%). With any TT/55 and 9x that check-calls flop (some sets immediately check-raise on flop), you want to raise the turn now that there are two FDs out there and to set up a river jam. Some QJs or Axs (with a FD) or any other SCs that might be in your UTG range, can balance the few combos of monsters that take the xc/xr line.
You would presumably slowplay quads, and your overpairs and Tx should just keep calling/bluffcatching.
FWIW, I check almost my entire range on the flop, but T9s and 55 would be the hands I'm most likely to c-bet, so I've usually only got 4 combos of boats/quads on the turn. I want to raise my trips though.

I just keep thinking this board is way too draw heavy to allow V to realize his equity at his own price with a xc line with the top of our range. I don't expect V to barrel twice when we xc flop either, esp not on this turn.

Saying that, I hate my turn raise even more now with KK. So terrible.

As Played def a c\c turn , Since with that line your turning your hand into a bluff basically, since ur only getting paid by something that is crushing you most likely.

Trying to understand why not just Cbet Flop, seems standard to me in this scenario, doesn't represent or give out much information really, and if Villain is good, or like his stats show, he ll most likely float Flop with a variety of hands, and from there I d prob go with the Check Call line

Because that flop smash's a buttons cold-calling range much harder than it hit's a reg's UTG open. Checking range on that flop would be okay, but doing one and only one thing in a given situation is never ideal.

^^Which is why any play can be considered good at least some percentage of the time; outside of obviously idiotic things of course.