Quote:
Originally Posted by AntiHer0
Ok so next time I make a 4bet, make it smaller, and don't make it with queens.
So in short:
-Calling the shove is incorrect, but
-Making the 4bet in the first place is incorrect, so
-Next time call the 3bet and reevaluate on the flop
I do need to work on betsizing. I haven't read much about 4bet/5bet pots hence the post.
Is 4bet-folding just a terrible line to take in the micros in general?
Very interesting and the subject of dealing with a 3bet when you have QQ and are OOP has a been a bugbear of mine. I had never really tried to figure out the EV of 4bet/folding with QQ before so I tried just now.
If you get 3bet by a nit with a 3bet pct of
<2 then folding QQ is a snap call. If their 3bet range is 3% (JJ+, AK) QQ has 47% preflop equity against that range. If you open raise 4bb and get 3bet to 15bb and you 4bet to 36bb and villain folds everything but AA/KK then 2/3 of the time you collect 19bb = 12bb. If villain 5bets AA/KK and you fold then 1/3 of the time you lose 36bb= 12bb so 4bet/ folding
when they fold or shove is actually neutral EV.
The problem is, what if villain flats the 4bet? It's probably impossible to get stats on a call 4bet range but I would assume any time villain calls you are crushed by their range. If that happens I think you play QQ for set value. Assuming that range is AA/KK/ maybe AK, If that happens then 11% of the time you check/shove and villain calls 42% of the time (folding AK). In that case 42% * 141bb = 59bb and 58% you win 76bb=44bb, so take (59bb+44bb)*.11 (when you flop a set) = 11.33 bb and the 89% of the time you don't flop a set and check/fold you lose 36bb=-32bb. So when they call you basically lose 21bb. So, if they call anytime you 4bet QQ your 4bet/fold becomes -EV.
Bear in mind this does not consider set over set situations or times when villain calls with AK and flop comes down QJT and you shove with your Queens or other hands when AA or KK make a straight but these probabilities are pretty small and don't help to illustrate this exercise.
So 4bet/folding will probably never be +EV except against a total maniac.
So I think the options are:
- flat the 3bet and play postflop or
- fold
If you flat what do you do when you flop an overpair? If you check/jam the flop and villain only calls with AA/KK then you win 19bb*.66 = 12bb. When you get called you lose 96bb*.33 =- 32bb. So again you are playing QQ for set value which you can do with 22. If you don't check/jam then how do you play against a shove on the flop/ on the turn on the river??? Because in a 3bet pot someone's stack is going in most of the time. The only time that doesn't happen if villain has KK and an Ace hits the flop or if villain has JJ and you both check it down or if you somehow you get to the river with AK unimproved.
This is tricky spot but I think overall the best response to getting 3bet when you have QQ and are OOP is to
fold.]The solution to this is to 3bet more yourself when IP with a polarized range so that your bluffs make up for your folds.