Because a lot of micro regs have poor emotional/rational control--it's an oft-overlook big leak in the micros imo--and do stuff like call your reraise even when they know they shouldn't and you almost always have AA.

Sometimes they beat your aces with their TT or KQs or whatever and win a decent pot, but most of the time they don't and they fold to your cbet. That's a lot of 20BB pots you're picking up there.

I am going to respond to mpethybridge's posts after my exam tomorrow! Lol

But they are this: Pure gold. The man is a genius (and extremely diplomatic).

By the way, I posted this hand because I knew it would be controversial and an intelligent discussion which is being provided here is beneficial for everyone involved.

Most definitely. I join your compliments.

Also, OP, sorry for my first post . Like I said, I am fish. There are definitely some good reasons for the plays in this hand, although I still cannot bring myself to like the flop check, but the existence of good reasoning behind it has been demonstrated.

Checking flop is bad. Pot size flop/fold to a raise from a tight player,shove against a loose one. Villain could have way more than AK,KK,QQ. I am amazed at the junk they will call c-bets with. Some will call with 33 or easily with 2 hearts and way worse. Yes, the fish stick around with this stuff. So bet away

Limping AA is stupid.

Over-limping AA is beyond ******ed.

I was expecting to see a thread full of bacon after i read OP, not an actual debate about this stupid play.

Bring on the bacon imo.

Why do assume villain is a fish when I said he was competent

Have you read what mpethybridge said? OFC its not a normal play, but with stacks so deep, preflop strength means next to nothing.

Do i really need to make a big write-up about how bad the play is? Seriously?

This is the micro forum ffs, teaching people to L/RR aces is terrible advice from so called experienced players.

It exists to help people with leaks, not to encourage them.

It makes me very angry that people are advising rookie players to do this, to do it properly would require a lot of complex thinking and skills sets, not to mention need the certain dynamics to make it profitable over the long term..

And even then, its stupid.

First of all, I doubt that you COULD make a big write-up on why this play is "bad," as it isn't [always].

Second of all:

and:

So, uh, relax, maybe? Not sure how worked up you really are.

Am I still #2 and are you telling me I need to limp re-raise?

Pretty sure you are still number 1 at $100+ You sustaining it?

I've done a lot of free reviews for NL $10 players, so I doubt you crack the top 10 overall, anymore. WRs with AA at $10 can be pretty obscene.

That was really just a brag to be honest. And perhaps here in a few months, we can review changes....assuming repeat customer discount

I want to spend a little time reviewing the entire thread though and potentially chime in here later tonight. Interesting discussion.

For the people who play higher, at what stakes does not balancing your limp re-raise range in EP stop being obscenely profitable? It seems like it works everytime at 25NL at least.

1. I don't think anybody said 'hey, you should l/rr with AA.' I know I didn't.

2. The kind of people that would read this thread and say 'hey, awesome, I'm gonna run out there and try to l/rr all my aces!' without thinking about the underlying theory have flawed thinking anyway and are always going to latch onto some play they don't understand.

3. It's rookie players' own business what advice they take, what they don't, and how to work on their game. There is no One True Path in poker, any suggestion that such a thing exists is absurd, and people with talent need the freedom to experiment with things, many of which will later turn out to be dumb.

4. Worse advice than anything in this thread gets doled out on this forum all the time. Some of it by me. Probably some of it by you. Maybe even some of it by luminaries like mpethy. This is fine.

5. You have either an anger management problem or an exaggeration problem.

To answer Mpethybridge's questions:

1. Any K Q or J helps AK, AQ and JJ improve against us respectively.

2. Assuming there are 3 Kings, 3 Queens and 4 Jacks left (this is a conservative assumption), I will see these cards 21% of the time.

Note: This is a worst case value, a more likely scenario is that there is on average: Just under 2 kings and queens and 4 jacks. This reduces the chance to 17%. Not that it makes much difference

Either 38% for the first case or 31% for the second case. So around 1 in 3 or 2 in 5.

Assume that the villain in position is a very aggressive player:

Seeing as this flop has hit my range so hard, probably around 10% at the most.

Probably around 15-20%

No Never. Say 5% or something because everyone bluffs even passive players.

No never. But again assume 5% for arguments sake.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

16,830 games 0.031 secs 542,903 games/sec

Board: 2h Kc Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.453% 51.29% 03.16% 8632 532.50 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 45.547% 42.38% 03.16% 7133 532.50 { AdAs, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QcQd, QcQs, QdQs, AdKd, AsKs, AdQd, AsQs, KdQd, KsQs, AdKh, AdKs, AsKd, AsKh }

AdAs, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QcQd, QcQs, QdQs, AdKd, AsKs, AdQd, AsQs, KdQd, KsQs, AdKh, AdKs, AsKd, AsKh is 17 hands.

JJ-88,AdQc,AdQs,AsQc,AsQd is a 28 hands.

The total number of hands in villain’s range is 45.

So the pot on the flop is 52BB and a 2/3 Pot c-bet is 35BB.

When villain folds, we win 52BB which will occur 28/45 times which gives an EV of: 52*28/45=32BB

When villain calls, we are 54% to win 122BB which will occur 17/45 times which gives an EV of: 0.54*122*17/45=25BB.

This means that the EV of betting is: 57BB. Have I done this correctly?

Note that villain can’t have AcQc or AhQh so I used AdQd and AsQs.

Board: 2h Kc Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.458% 64.90% 02.56% 13492 532.50 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 32.542% 29.98% 02.56% 6233 532.50 { AdAs, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QcQd, QcQs, QdQs, 88, AdKd, AsKs, AdQd, AsQs, AdKh, AdKs, AsKd, AsKh }

So if he bets, our EV of calling that bet is 0.67*122=82BB. Obviously with the rest of his range, he will check and so the EV of villain checking is 0.

This means that the EV of checking will net on average 25BB more than betting the flop.

Is the correct?

I read quickly through your post and skimmed your math, and it looks good to me.

I didn't study your response because, frankly, I was pretty excited by the line that I put in bold above which I saw before reading your post.

The conclusion that you reached was based on the assumptions I gave you. With the assumptions I provided in the interrogatory post, it looks to me that you drew the right conclusion.

When I first opened this post the hand looked like a clear spot where the villain's calling range on the flop would be faaaaar narrower than his betting range.

This, in turn, is why I ended one of my posts with the discussion of it mattering how the money goes in.

My goal throughout this thread has simply been to get people thinking beyond whether the money should go in, and have them also thinking about how the money goes in. A lot of spots are like that: checki/calling might be profitable, but betting might be more so. Or vice versa. It depends on a lot of things like the villain's range, your range, the villain's perception of your range, and both players' general tendencies.

We've all moved a step toward improving if we can keep these factors in mind as we make our decisions at the table.

How we view the hand in the OP is sort of irrelevant. Our evaluations of everything I listed in the previous paragraph will vary from hand to hand and from person to person. The range we put a guy on is only ever a guesstimate, anyway, and we'll never know for sure how accurate our assessment was. The important thing is that we be considering the correct factors; this will help ensure that we are making better (more profitable) decisions.

Good work itt.

Mpethybridge, I would just like to thank you for your insights throughout this thread and helping improve everyone's game (including my own). I personally have learned a lot from this thread.

ORLY?

I'm curious, why is this?

I'm pretty sure its bad because:

When the pot gets limped to the flop, we lose a ****load of equity.

When people make a note that a "reg" has L/RR, OL/RR before [which i can tell you this is something i always note], and will adjust and isolate less [which this play needs to be profiable] and limp behind more.

That this play is 100% dependent on somebody raising PF.

That is our range is polarized to KK+, it's not going to take long for any half-competent person to figure out whats going on, you won't be playing against unknowns or people who have a nothing sample on you forever.

If our range is merged and we're doing it a lot, people will catch onto this and start to 4-bet light in position and make an absolute killing with it.


This play seems to rely on always being raised PF and people never adjusting.

You said you don't advocate this at the micros, well that's my main point done and dusted, it's just what you choose a 10nl thread to make it, which made me think you were advocating it at the micros, so in that regard i was mistaken.

hah, just the other day I was thinking about how funny of a strategy it would be if I limped all hands I normally raise with in EP and just 3b with them every single time I was raised. I think I'll take a tour down to 10nl to see how it works

You did read that this is a randomising play right that I do like 2% of the time? I know we lose a load of equity if it gets checked to the flop, but with deep stacks isn't giving up a little preflop equity worth gaining a whole lot in postflop equity? Noone will give us credit for AA otf etc.

Just for you guys, I had to limp RR my last hand at the table to see what would happen. Surprising things.....

Guy was a regular, although now noted as a bit spazzy.

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP1: $252.70
MP2: $293.90
CO: $206.00
BTN: $203.50
SB: $74.70
BB: $407.35
Hero (UTG): $223.60
UTG+1: $213.80

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero calls $2, UTG+1 calls $2, 4 folds, SB calls $1, BB raises to $12, Hero raises to $36, 2 folds, BB raises to $60, Hero raises to $88, BB raises to $407.35 all in, Hero calls $135.60 all in

Flop: ($451.20) 3 7 A (2 players - 2 are all in)

Turn: ($451.20) 2 (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($451.20) 9 (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $451.20
BB shows T T (a pair of Tens)
Hero shows A A (three of a kind, Aces)
Hero wins $448.20
(Rake: $3.00)

Yeah, this is my point, people spazz out like this all the time. L/rr is obscenely profitable in certain situations. I mean one time I did it and got shoved on with A6o!!!

I'll reread through this thread later, but I think check the flop and checking the turn is not ideal.
I think even given pf play, I'd go with a 2/3 pot bet on the flop, fold to a reraise, check turn and bet river, maybe check flop, bet turn, bet river but do not like that as much considering the flush and st8 draws.
Maybe bet flop, check turn, check call river is best.

Min 4-bet then 6-bet shove? This guy's a moron and this hand proves nothing.

Your post is quite contradictory given that 10NL is full of morons.