When he flats in the BB he shouldn't really have KQo here as he should be 3-betting those on the BTN, so there is really only one combo of KQs he can have (which I feel most players still 3-bet on the BTN). I think folding turn is way too nitty so I think that's out of the question, but can I call the river bet?

partypoker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 198.5 BB
BTN: 148.1 BB (VPIP: 27.12, PFR: 16.62, 3Bet Preflop: 6.36, Hands: 6,556)
SB: 118.5 BB (VPIP: 26.28, PFR: 16.26, 3Bet Preflop: 5.94, Hands: 6,541)
BB: 99 BB (VPIP: 27.86, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 6.34, Hands: 6,991)
UTG: 27.1 BB (VPIP: 24.34, PFR: 17.28, 3Bet Preflop: 7.64, Hands: 6,253)
MP: 121.1 BB (VPIP: 29.01, PFR: 16.43, 3Bet Preflop: 7.31, Hands: 7,041)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) Q 6 K
Hero bets 4.8 BB, BTN calls 4.8 BB

Turn: (17.1 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero bets 10.9 BB, BTN raises to 29.9 BB, Hero calls 19 BB

River: (76.9 BB, 2 players) T
Hero checks, BTN bets 45.5 BB, Hero ???

I’d bet river for value. Obviously never folding

I'm calling but never leading river.

He has a huge gap in VPIP/PFR and a low 3bet%. The guy can have the hands you say that he can't. I probably just fold turn to the raise vs a regfish. Vs a good known reg I call down.

I usually go into check-calling mode on the turn and let villain try and rep a 6 for two more streets with all his random floats. With that line, I basically always see a showdown.
I'm really not sure about calling river when he raises the turn though. Would he bluff all his JTs when he makes a pair?

I think that the stats are wrong! I have seen this here before, the number of hands by players are close to the same, the stats are also similar to each other.
I would expect him to raise his strong hands on the flop(hands like 66 sets, KQ two pairs), so I thought we were ahead on the turn, and thought that to barrel for value was the right move. But that raise by him on the turn . . . It's still nl10, we showed power preflop, and on 2 streets postflop too on a drawheavy board which could connect his range, and he raised us . . . On micros I like folding. I am pretty sure that we are beaten.

I really like Arty's line, and I think that's the best solution. We don't want to play a really big pot with our one-pair hand, with that line we keep his range wider, we give him the possibility to make a move with his floats. I think that our TPBK is not strong to show such a big strenght as we did on the turn. Against his weaker top pairs we will have the possibility to get some value on the river too.

As played, I would fold otr. Villain is too snug to be raising and betting with air. Otr you have 1.69:1 so you would need to be correct 37% of the time to break even. I would say that villain's bluffing rate would be less than 37%? Unless v is cabable to use this line with a marginal hand.

Top of his range: AA, KK, QQ, KQ, 66, K10
Bottom of his range: J10 off, J10 suited, 109suited, suited clubs

How are you perceived and how wide is your range in late position?

I'd fold river ap. We're blocking his Axcc bluffs, and I just think the population is showing up with 6x here >75% of the time.


Not sure about this logic, but I think the b/c line is okay on the turn as long as we do it with our KQ combos too. If we only b/c our tptk, then we pretty much have to call the river, as we're at the top of our range.