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10NL - Bluff catch here? 10NL - Bluff catch here?

04-25-2017 , 04:14 PM
PokerStars - $0.10 Ante $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

Hero (SB): 106.6 BB
BB: 132 BB (VPIP: 24.06, PFR: 19.25, 3Bet Preflop: 8.39, Hands: 378)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 24.44, PFR: 17.78, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 48)
MP: 143.2 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
CO: 104.6 BB (VPIP: 21.32, PFR: 15.44, 3Bet Preflop: 2.00, Hands: 138)
BTN: 98.4 BB (VPIP: 59.09, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, 6 players post ante of 0.2 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has K 8

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.9 BB, BB calls 1.9 BB

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) 5 3 8
Hero bets 3.6 BB, BB raises to 11 BB, Hero calls 7.4 BB

Turn: (29 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, BB bets 22 BB, Hero calls 22 BB

River: (73 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero checks, BB bets 26.5 BB, Hero calls 26.5 BB,
10NL - Bluff catch here? Quote
04-25-2017 , 04:24 PM
I probably call. He's only representing Qsxs, 7s6s, 7c6c, and 88/55/33. Don't need many combos of bluffs to make the call profitable and a lot of draws missed.

Very unfortunate if he rolls over something like QJo and raised the flop with air but I need reads to assume he's doing that frequently enough.

Last edited by hehexd; 04-25-2017 at 04:47 PM.
10NL - Bluff catch here? Quote
04-25-2017 , 04:45 PM
Would say it's a call. He's calling with a lot pre. I would expect his flop raise to be a range close to this:
55,33,85s,83s,53s,As9s,Ks9s,Qs9s,Js9s,As7s,Ks7s,Qs 7s,Js7s,Ts7s,As6s,Ks6s,Qs6s,Js6s,Ts6s,9s6s,As4s,Ks 4s,Qs4s,Js4s,Ts4s,9s4s,7s4s,6s4s,As3s,Ks3s,Qs3s,Js 3s,Ts3s,9s3s,7s3s,6s3s,As2s,Ks2s,Qs2s,Js2s,Ts2s,9s 2s,7s2s,6s2s,4s2s,76o

If I'm close to correct, we would have 48.25% equity OTF, you need ~34% to call so we're fine calling here.

Qc OTT helps our range more than his, with this specific hand we have 63.21% equity supposing he cbets turn his whole flop range, we need 43% to call so we are fine here too.

River card is good for his range, a part of his bluff range connects, his 76o and his 9x are now beating us. Given his sizing we would need ~26% equity, and we would have 42.19% if he once again bets his whole range, but I think we are even better because I don't think he is betting is 9x FDs in position now that he got SDV.
10NL - Bluff catch here? Quote
04-25-2017 , 04:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hehexd
I probably call. He's only representing Qsxs, 7s6s, 7c6c, and 88/55/33. Don't need many combos of bluffs to make the call profitable and a lot of draws missed.

Very unfortunate if he rolls over something like QJo and x/r the flop with air but I need reads to assume he's doing that frequently enough.
I think villain might check river with just Qx so he's probably repping even thinner than the combos you said. Would be absolutely owning our face off is he check raised QsXs and then bet turn and river for value. If I was in this spot I probably fold but I do think I overfold in some spots
10NL - Bluff catch here? Quote
04-25-2017 , 05:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cantor1987
I think villain might check river with just Qx so he's probably repping even thinner than the combos you said. Would be absolutely owning our face off is he check raised QsXs and then bet turn and river for value. If I was in this spot I probably fold but I do think I overfold in some spots
I misspoke he raised a cbet. Raising Qsxs and betting turn/riv for value looks standard to me. We never have 2p on this flop, QQ+ usually 3bets flop. So when he hits the Q, he can safely assume he usually has the best hand. River would be a bit thin depending on his kicker though. We're at least always calling any Qx in our range and we have a lot of ugly kickers.

If he showed AQ/KQ/QJ/QT no flopped FD I would probably take a break.
10NL - Bluff catch here? Quote
04-26-2017 , 05:59 AM
I think it's close, but I would fold. We can have 99 TT, JJ, also some Qxss in this spot, and I'd probably actually just call flop and turn with some bigger hands like QQ KK AA and 88 some percentage of the time to allow V to bluff and to have some strong hands in my calling range as well. Since I think there are a lot of better hands that can call here, I'd just fold. But I do like this hand in particular to call with as you block KQ if V decided to raise with air otf, and I also like choosing a hand without spades to call with.
10NL - Bluff catch here? Quote

      
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