If steaming it's possible he's doing it with AsX but i think if he was steaming he would be 4 betting you on flop with AsAx KsKx, then again how often are 13/10 semi nits really steaming
im definitely c/c . i just dont see him having a higher set with such a high f3b stat. so i guess that narrows his range to like 10+, AQs+, AKo or something like.
as played, i think i jam. more likely a hand like JJ or QQ imo. if he has the flush you still have some equity for if the board pairs.
i just dont like folding a set here. its so strong against his range. and if the metagame is as you say just makes it harder to fold
only negative is how deep effective stacks are if your behind.
Only things making me want to shove ott:
- That people do spazz out in LP/Steal pots.
- He is gonna be playing 10nl for a reason. (Obv has leaks in his game)
- Also you think he might be steaming.
Time banking on the flop seems wierd also. I think people do it alot when there titled and wanna play back... Also they will do it alot with the nutz, but, to timebank/call the nuts on this board would be pritty stupid.
The fact that overpairs/2pairs/sets should be shoving/3betting the flop here (doesnt mean thats how he will play it) kind of makes it hard to believe he would still have them in his range on the turn, to shove over your bet. So this is gonna be a flush alot of the time.
Seriously tho, if you have a 10k hand sample on a guy who folds to 94% of 3bets, I think we can safely say he is just mindlessly folding every time he doesnt have AA, and probably doesnt even realise your going over the top on him. But obv only you can know if he could be steaming or not, we weren't playing/watching all those previous hands.
Also, c/c ott is baaaaad. We need to get value while we are ahead, and there are so many river cards to kill our action. Offering villian the chance to check back here is criminal.