Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
10nl AQ IP versus Loose Passive, maximizing value 10nl AQ IP versus Loose Passive, maximizing value

01-09-2014 , 11:25 PM
How much is too much here? Villain, in the short hand history I'd seen, had gone to showdown almost 50%, and had limp called the following hands that went to SD: 66, K4s, QTs, 52s, A6o. I figured I'd get calls from a ton of one pair hands V may show up with.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $10.00 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
UTG: $35.02 (VPIP: 68.75, PFR: 9.38, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 33)
Hero (MP): $10.00
CO: $5.70 (VPIP: 13.51, PFR: 9.46, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 74)
BTN: $10.00 (VPIP: 13.32, PFR: 10.80, 3Bet Preflop: 7.79, Hands: 406)
SB: $4.00 (VPIP: 12.12, PFR: 3.03, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A Q

UTG calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.95, 2 players) J 7 K
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.95, 2 players) T
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.70, UTG calls $0.70

River: ($2.35, 2 players) 4
UTG checks, Hero bet size?
10nl AQ IP versus Loose Passive, maximizing value Quote
01-09-2014 , 11:59 PM
I'd bet around pot. If he had a flush draw he'll fold to anything. If he has KX+ he'll probably call any reasonably sized bet.
10nl AQ IP versus Loose Passive, maximizing value Quote
01-10-2014 , 12:07 AM
Need more info. Usually I'd bet $1.60 here but how much is villain calling and with what kind if hand strength. If he's been calling down big bets with 4th pair then I might even shove this river. Check on flop/bet turn is probably going to look weak and he might be able to convince himself that a river shove must be a crazy bluff.
10nl AQ IP versus Loose Passive, maximizing value Quote
01-10-2014 , 03:36 AM
$1.60-$1.80
10nl AQ IP versus Loose Passive, maximizing value Quote
01-10-2014 , 04:46 AM
Seems like a whale. Vs this villain I'm leaning towards 2, but I'm not against a shove if he really calls down light. And there's some 2 pairs in his range which he def won't fold. He might have bet or raised them at some point though. I've seen villains call down shoves in similar spots with just a K.
10nl AQ IP versus Loose Passive, maximizing value Quote
01-10-2014 , 06:31 AM
I would be betting this flop vs this villain. Lots of good stuff can happen, we have the best hand already and the whale calls with worse sometimes, we might be behind but improve to a straight, top pair, or even good second pair on the Turn and we can keep betting.

I think you could do ev calcs and the shove vs this villain type probably gives the best EV in the long run.
10nl AQ IP versus Loose Passive, maximizing value Quote
01-10-2014 , 06:33 AM
Pot, target his Kx range, which are the likely combos that call.
10nl AQ IP versus Loose Passive, maximizing value Quote
01-10-2014 , 08:28 AM
Overbet
10nl AQ IP versus Loose Passive, maximizing value Quote
01-10-2014 , 10:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MartL
I would be betting this flop vs this villain. Lots of good stuff can happen, we have the best hand already and the whale calls with worse sometimes, we might be behind but improve to a straight, top pair, or even good second pair on the Turn and we can keep betting.
My concern here was how this flop can hit a standard limp-calling range in a lot of ways, and if I'm hoping to get value from this villain because they'll call down second pair or something equally weak, then I would just be building the pot for them any time I don't hit my A, Q, or T.
10nl AQ IP versus Loose Passive, maximizing value Quote
01-10-2014 , 12:30 PM
I'm overbetting to about 3 $ otr.

Sent from my HTC One using 2+2 Forums
10nl AQ IP versus Loose Passive, maximizing value Quote
01-10-2014 , 01:17 PM
~Pot.
10nl AQ IP versus Loose Passive, maximizing value Quote
01-10-2014 , 01:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KraventheHunter
My concern here was how this flop can hit a standard limp-calling range in a lot of ways, and if I'm hoping to get value from this villain because they'll call down second pair or something equally weak, then I would just be building the pot for them any time I don't hit my A, Q, or T.
I think we still get enough outright folds from his range to make the cbet in itself profitable. Even when we dont hit on the turn we can still check behind and a lot of the time we will hit what could be up to about 10 outs added to that there will be some times when the villain calls the flop with say Q9 and the turn and river bricks and he lets us check it down with the best hand.
10nl AQ IP versus Loose Passive, maximizing value Quote
01-10-2014 , 03:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KraventheHunter
My concern here was how this flop can hit a standard limp-calling range in a lot of ways, and if I'm hoping to get value from this villain because they'll call down second pair or something equally weak, then I would just be building the pot for them any time I don't hit my A, Q, or T.
Some food for thought is that even if the cbet itself is breakeven or slightly worse than EV, it's building the pot for times like this. So at this point, you're able to get say another $2 - $3 out of the opponent. However, if you had bet the flop, the pot would've been $2.35 ott, so you could've bet pot ott and jammed the river, giving you an extra ~$6.50.
10nl AQ IP versus Loose Passive, maximizing value Quote

      
m