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5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled 5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled

04-02-2010 , 08:03 PM
The match has been incredibly uneventful. The biggest pot so far was 120 chips, so I don't really have any reads on this player. Most spots were extremely standard against him thus far.. his avg stake is $5, with a 2% roi over 200 games.

Full Tilt Poker $100 + $5 Heads Up No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players - View hand 622461
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN/SB): t1170 M = 26
BB: t1830 M = 40.67

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BTN/SB with K 9
Hero raises to t75, BB calls t45

Flop: (t150) 8 9 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t90, BB raises to t180, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls t90

Turn: (t510) A (2 players)
BB bets t330, Hero calls t330

River: (t1170) J (2 players)
BB bets t885, Hero calls t585 all in

I pretty much wanted to puke on every street here, I don't know if I can find a fold on the turn..? What line should be the most profitable here?
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-02-2010 , 08:10 PM
i think i could fold turn pretty comfortably. as played i feel like youre just check/guessing and i doubt the 9s are still good if they ever were in the first place

Last edited by Joe Pulaski; 04-02-2010 at 08:12 PM. Reason: nvm you're acting second, but id still fold turn
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-02-2010 , 08:13 PM
Don't request time on the flop. Fold turn given stack sizes.
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-02-2010 , 08:17 PM
i fold river.
an incredibly uneventful game, means villain is pretty straightforward especially in all in situation. 67,98,A9,sets...
and there isn't a fd on the board, only TJ wich would likely check river, and T7 wich got there...
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-02-2010 , 08:27 PM
I almost feel as though we should be folding or jamming turn, i mean there is a lot of pair+draws, obv also 2 pair hands. We cant really call turn here without intentions of calling almost every river given stacksizes.

I guess the problem with jamming the turn is that it is actually pretty hazed whether it is for value or as a bluff on that card. Folding turn can't be too bad against a straightforward villain...
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-02-2010 , 08:56 PM
Why would you want to puke on the flop? Did you have any specific reads to do something as disgusting as that?
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-02-2010 , 09:03 PM
Just did a quick pokerstove.

Even against a range that consists of A9 to 97 and JT,QT,T7,76,QJ.
You are slight favourite on flop (51%).
On turn you reach an EV peak of 59.1% and by the river you are completely in the ****ter winning the pot just 22.5% versus that range which incidently would make calling the river -EV.

I think against someone whose average stake is only $5 and who i'm assuming hasn't been that aggressive so far given the biggest pot has been 120. It seems reasonably unlikely he has just spazzed out unless you had really been running him over. Also its quite likely some of these made hands and draws wouldn't even raise the flop and if you don't think he is raising some of the made hands weaker than yours then you equity will drop further and you will rarely be good by the river. I think its also reasonable that many weaker 9s even if they raised the flop now wouldn't shove the river.

Its pretty tough because turn is actually a pretty good card for you, reducing possibilities on A9, not many aces that would have raised the flop imo. So if you think he has a decent number of draws if his flop ch minR range then shove the turn, if not fold.

Now you got to the river, fold. Given he probably isn't vbetting too many worse 9s and everything else got there I doubt you are good more than 15% of the time and you need to be good 25%.

Edit: I didn't include sets in the ranges, mainly because I forgot. But... its also impossible to make one so I won't lose any sleep over it.
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-02-2010 , 09:21 PM
ops, didn't notice effective stack,
yeah, we can't call turn and plan to fold river...
i would shove turn. but i'm a lot more aggro than u cnat spel. in this kind of boredom kingdom i guess folding turn is ok.
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-02-2010 , 09:25 PM
I fistpump fold turn.
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-02-2010 , 10:35 PM
I agree with mjw, the turn decision is critical, u either shove the turn or fold, and it depends on your read on the villain and board texture. I would fold though because I don't know much about the villain.
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-02-2010 , 11:20 PM
Turn card seems unimportant to me. Good bluff card for him, but unless he has A9 I dunno what he c/r min on the flop with that has an ace in it. So i probably flat turn (with intention of calling down now) here too to extract value from bluffs. (Bc you're obviously getting called if you shove by anythign that beats u and just about nothing u beat - unless your worried about about somethign catching up and want to take it down here)

Having said all this, him being a low stakes player, I cant help but think he flopped the nuts here, but i on turn/river i c/call down more a lot
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-03-2010 , 05:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mersenneary
Fold turn given stack sizes.
Could you clarify what you mean by this? Is our hand not strong enough to get into the pot size that results, or are the stack sizes too awkward if we call, or something else?
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-03-2010 , 05:05 AM
you cant fold turn if u call flop. ace is a great card for villain to continue bluffing, and that bet kinda looks liike a bluff/semibluff. I'd fold river tho, only thing that didn't got there is complete air and 67. even J10 now beats you, so I would fold river.
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-03-2010 , 03:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluemage55
Could you clarify what you mean by this? Is our hand not strong enough to get into the pot size that results, or are the stack sizes too awkward if we call, or something else?
Calling the turn bet is essentially committing, I agree with mjw that it's a fold or raise proposition. If we had more behind I might call and if we had less behind (well, we'd be getting it in on the flop) but stack sizes as they are, it's essentially calling a turn donkshove imo.
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-03-2010 , 03:59 PM
I'd 3bet flop
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-03-2010 , 05:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by u cnat spel
The match has been incredibly uneventful. The biggest pot so far was 120 chips, so I don't really have any reads on this player. Most spots were extremely standard against him thus far.. his avg stake is $5, with a 2% roi over 200 games.

Full Tilt Poker $100 + $5 Heads Up No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players - View hand 622461
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN/SB): t1170 M = 26
BB: t1830 M = 40.67

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BTN/SB with K 9
Hero raises to t75, BB calls t45

Flop: (t150) 8 9 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t90, BB raises to t180, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls t90

Turn: (t510) A (2 players)
BB bets t330, Hero calls t330

River: (t1170) J (2 players)
BB bets t885, Hero calls t585 all in

I pretty much wanted to puke on every street here, I don't know if I can find a fold on the turn..? What line should be the most profitable here?
I hardly ever call the turn here. I know what's coming on the river; even if I'm ahead, lots of rivers are going to suck.

Close as to whether to shove flop or not, depends on villain's perception of me.

Barry

Last edited by BarryLyndon; 04-03-2010 at 05:43 PM.
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-03-2010 , 05:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JSpazz
I'd 3bet flop
No.

Kinda puke spot because he MR like lets say he has 2 pairs or a set here, if a 4 card straight board comes, then he hates life. I'mnot saying he's even thinking about future cards or the chances are high that this will happen ldo, but with these stacks, the MR looks really weird. IDK, it's a really weird spot and i think it's a jam or fold on the turn.

Being a reg speed, i'd fold turn untill i had more reads on this guy because i think it's too close to call between jamming or folding. So essentially, i'm not saying fold and look for a better spot as we should always take a +ev line, but i'm just not convinced yet that jamming turn is +ev vs this guy without reads.

If i'm having a bad day, i jam turn like always lol
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-03-2010 , 05:44 PM
IYSS, but villain's avg stake being $5, I'd expect more 9+draw/8+draw hands and overplayed TPNK/MPTK etc in his flop GII range on average
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-03-2010 , 06:29 PM
i'd ship flop and be pretty happy about it (only play turbo's though, so -hax)
2/3 of the deck sucks on turn, ace actually being one of the "better" and we still have no clue what to do really...
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-03-2010 , 07:20 PM
Yeah I think it is a ship @ the flop or a fold (many turns are so bad and it is just bad to call here and fold many turns), since a fold is really bad here I would shove, versus his range we are doing pretty good.
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote
04-03-2010 , 07:22 PM
also I dont think his minraise is really that strong etc especially since (2% roi) he can play a bit of poker
5 HUSNG: TPKK, minraised and barelled Quote

      
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