Villains is 13/11 (1.6k hands)
I elected to c/r since villains bet vs missed cbet is 89% and his fold to cbet is only 40% so I was sure i was going to get floated so figured a c/r is okay since he will b/f nearly his whole range (also we have the nut backdoor!!!)

I planned to barrel any 10QKA or diamond turn but dont barrel this brick.
When he checks back it looks like he has a fd or showdown value, we can fairly safely take out all sets from his range (and probably QQ+ aswell for fear of the fd they are likely to bet)

When the Q drops I bet to attempt to induce (more about this at the end)

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #9125182

BTN: $100 (100 bb)
SB: $102.90 (102.9 bb)
BB: $167.75 (167.8 bb)
UTG+1: $39.20 (39.2 bb)
UTG+2: $112.95 (113 bb)
Hero (MP1): $175.30 (175.3 bb)
MP2: $354.30 (354.3 bb)
MP3: $100.80 (100.8 bb)
CO: $101.50 (101.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K A
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, CO calls $3, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 7 3 J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5, Hero raises to $14, CO calls $9

Turn: ($35.50) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($35.50) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $13, CO raises to $84.50 and is all-in, Hero calls $71.50 and is all-in

On to the induce...
I bet approx 1/3 pot OTR and expect to be looked up by 88-1010, AJ, overpairs and we loose the $13
However our line and blocking bet otr looks so weak that villain is going to raise/jam all his busted fds (hopefully), allowing us to win a big pot as opposed to loosing a small one.
To me his range has no sets (maybe QQ) he wont shove Jx or an underpair due to our small blocker otr which allows him to call and his only Q is QQ, so we are behind to QQQ and 87dd

Anyway this is probably mega spew and I know its 100NL but I'm interested in what you micro guys think, hopefully could lead to an interesting discussion (rather than passive fish raises my TPTK ohnoes!!), peace.

Don't try this at home kids

Need much more info on villain! But the hand looks not good...

What kinda stuff you after?
River AgF 3.2
Call Open in CO 6%

he's got QJ(the only hand I can think of other than slow played sets here and busted draws of course) and he's put you squarely on AA/KK trying to get to showdown with some value. I dunno why he'd think you'd check back with AA/KK on the turn aside from keeping the pot reasonably sized(and he probably thinks you've put him squarely on Jx), but that block bet doesn't necessarily look like complete weakness if he knows you're a reg.

I think he's got to be bluffing far too often for this to be profitable, and your hand range is looking pretty face up, as he blocks trip Qs/Js, and the only other viable set is 7s(barely).

He never has 77, and I'm not sure QJ is in his preflop flatting range (QJs maybe)
I'd you to elaborate on why he puts me on AA/KK

what hands would you c/r the flop with as the pfr, then check the turn and 'block'-bet the river?

If he knows you're a reg, he probably figures you competent enough to get small-medium value out of overpairs on somewhat drawy boards. 3 streets seems a little much here, especially considering how blank that turn was. I also think he thinks big draws/sets in your range would rather bet/3bet.

why does he never have 77 when his flatting range is 6%? does he never 3bet out of the CO?

[edit] also, are there any fish left to act that might give him more implied odds with 77 in a multiway pot when he hits his set?

77 gotta bet that turn when checked to

you say that

but you give him all sorts of hands on the river...

very true. Sticking with my original thought of QJ. It's the only hand that makes sense aside from the QQ combos.

Very good point, I hadn't thought about that.
Probably hands like KQdd and the strong part of my air range

So you're saying you bet AKs into trup QQQ?

88-1010, AJ, overpairs, flush draws
I never expected him to fold any of those OTF, but he folds a ton of other stuff

I am just wondering.... Should I employ this play into my NL5 arsenal? It's certainly logical, but I wonder does it make sense on lowest stakes.

I Lol'd

I honestly couldn't tell you sorry, no experience at <25NL
But from what I hear about the nanostakes its good to just play ABC so I'd probably avoid it, unless you are very confident post flop playing turns and rivers etc

i really haven't understand your line and the opponent line on the turn.

based on the action on the flop you could have sets or draws with overcard like AQdd+, but i think with both you will bet, i'm right?

at the opposit side we have a caller of the flop, that think you have trips or combo, but you checked to him, so he can exclude trips, the river card change nothing, so if he has some J or 7 i think he willl bet them.

your bet on the river sounds like a AQdd in your hand, and if the opponent raise you i think he's got you beaten even if you got AQdd.

but i couldn't find an hand that play in that matter except if he's going for deception.

mmm, after some hours i came up with the idea that your opponent has AQdd or KQdd.
but i think AQ is most of the time.

your line say nothing, and with a TPTK on the river he wants to go allin with a kind of player that is capable to call him with a weaker holds, and you could have trips, 2 pair or better.

i congratulate you OP; i haven't seen this level of spew and self-levelling in a while. made my day.

op if you won you should show results... would be the funniest hand ever played probably

interesting post.

i wrote a bunch of stuff but deleted it after seeing villains call in co is like 6% here. 6.2% is 22-QQ, AKs, AKo so i don't think villain is flatting with enough flush draws for us to pull this off. also he's gonna jam some of his flush draws on the flop. even if villains pf range was 22-QQ, AJs+, AQo+, JTs, T9s, 98s this would still be a -EV play taking into account the times you get snapped off by a bluffcatcher.

after your turn check i would check/fold the river.

idk what to even say here since you make it all sound so plausible except do you really think AK high >35% of his river bluff-jamming range?

This really depends on what range of levels you put yourself and villain on.

HELL NO!
5NL is full of people who call too much. Just value bet and fold when they play back

Keeping this short. In the order i thought of them, Bad because

Villain tells you on the flop and on the turn that he has SDV. This hasn't changed by the river
You rep nothing
You lose to most of the bluffs you induced.
You made a passive play for 100bbs with AK high
River helps his range more than yours
He isn't cold calling wide enough to have pure air here often