[LOW] 100nl acr 20k hand update. Should I quit my job? - Page 3 - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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[LOW] 100nl acr 20k hand update. Should I quit my job?

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11-13-2021 , 10:53 PM

#51

aner0

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 3,801

Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

I know they don't have higher stdev but you have a higher risk of ruin with a lower winrate. Also I think the larger swings statement is kind of vague and not correct. The average downswing will be less.

Assuming 115 std

at 3bb/100 your average downswing during 50k hands should be around 25 buy ins
at 6bb/100 your average downswing during 50k hands should be around 21 buy ins

Just think for a second about what ur saying. Same stdev = same swings relative to your average winrate. The risk of ruin you're talking about doesn't count rakeback, obviously

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11-13-2021 , 11:01 PM

#52

DooDooPoker

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 19,699

Quote:

Originally Posted by aner0

Just think for a second about what ur saying. Same stdev = same swings relative to your average winrate. The risk of ruin you're talking about doesn't count rakeback, obviously

Oh okay you were talking about my rakeback example. I thought you meant that a 2bb winrate and a 5bb winrate had the same swings.

Quote

11-13-2021 , 11:03 PM

#53

aner0

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 3,801

Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

Oh okay you were talking about my rakeback example. I thought you meant that a 2bb winrate and a 5bb winrate had the same swings.

They have the same swings, relative to the average winrate, it's just that the 2bb 100 swings spend longer below 0. But with 3bb rakeback this would be balanced out to be the exact same.

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11-13-2021 , 11:04 PM

#54

Haizemberg93

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Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 7,639

You absolutely should include your RB as part of WR when doing these kind of riski of ruin calculations.

10$ is 10$ it doesn't matter where it comes from.

Quote

11-13-2021 , 11:04 PM

#55

Matte_23

stranger

Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 14

Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

Whats the equation for your poker winnings?

Quote

11-13-2021 , 11:07 PM

#56

DooDooPoker

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 19,699

Quote:

Originally Posted by aner0

They have the same swings, relative to the average winrate, it's just that the 2bb 100 swings spend longer below 0. But with 3bb rakeback this would be balanced out to be the exact same.

Okay yeah but you have longer break even stretches so you'll play worse from a psychological standpoint, that was my point. I'll take the less break even stretches all day every day.

I know the winnings would be the same in theory since 5bb = 5bb.

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11-13-2021 , 11:10 PM

#57

Matte_23

stranger

Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 14

no. Are you ******ed?

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11-13-2021 , 11:10 PM

#58

Matte_23

stranger

Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 14

both players have same swings

Quote

11-13-2021 , 11:23 PM

#59

DooDooPoker

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 19,699

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matte_23

both players have same swings

a 2bb winrate and a 5bb winrate do not have the same swings

The rakeback doesn't have standard deviation so how are you calculating them having the same swings.

"at 3bb/100 your average downswing during 50k hands should be around 25 buy ins
at 6bb/100 your average downswing during 50k hands should be around 21 buy ins"

so 4 buy ins difference if it's only variance but now the 3bb winner gets 15 buy ins variance free
so shouldn't even be close with variance.

the 2bb winner has less swings on average because rakeback doesnt have a standard deviation.

Last edited by DooDooPoker; 11-13-2021 at 11:38 PM.

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11-14-2021 , 12:19 AM

#60

Matte_23

stranger

Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 14

a 2bb winrate with 3bb rakeback its a 5bb winrate

Quote

11-14-2021 , 12:22 AM

#61

BobbyPeru

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 2,487

Depends on how you think. If you can lose results wise over say 50k hands but you are still in profit of 10 or 20bi due to rakeback and be happy with that. Kudos. I wouldn't be able to sleep.at night knowing I'm a breakeven loser.

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11-14-2021 , 12:35 AM

#62

DooDooPoker

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 19,699

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matte_23

a 2bb winrate with 3bb rakeback its a 5bb winrate

nice math skills.

It's not the same though - one has 2bb with standard deviation and the other has 5bb.

They don't have the same swings.

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11-14-2021 , 12:44 AM

#63

Matte_23

stranger

Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 14

seek help

Quote

11-14-2021 , 01:21 AM

#64

Boomerx

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 267

DooDoo, what you are saying makes sense and I agree.

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11-14-2021 , 03:14 AM

#65

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

nice math skills.

It's not the same though - one has 2bb with standard deviation and the other has 5bb.

They don't have the same swings.

If one player has 2BB wr + 3BB rakeback with 'x' standard deviation, and another player has 5BB wr + 0BB rakeback with 'x' standard deviation, they have the same win-rate and standard deviation, which means they have the same long term swings, breakeven stretches and RoR. x+0=x

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11-14-2021 , 06:41 AM

#66

hyperknit

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 2,718

Yeah a standard deviation curve is just gonna plot a horizontal log graph at an angle equal to your win rate.

So u can angle it first or just lift all the data points later according to the rake back.

It’s gonna be the same thing.

Quote

11-14-2021 , 12:38 PM

#67

DooDooPoker

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 19,699

Quote:

Originally Posted by browni3141

You can't combine 2 + 3 into x standard deviation because the 3 is 0 standard deviation.

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11-14-2021 , 01:37 PM

#68

aner0

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 3,801

You really like arguing for the sake of it dont u

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11-14-2021 , 03:11 PM

#69

2021shipit

adept

Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 1,037

just don't check your results, your "psycological stress' (which is a stretch in the first place) will be gone

Quote

11-14-2021 , 03:36 PM

#70

DooDooPoker

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 19,699

Quote:

Originally Posted by aner0

You really like arguing for the sake of it dont u

No I just am waiting for a mathematical proof a little more sophisticated than 2+3 = 5

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11-14-2021 , 03:40 PM

#71

newguyhere

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Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 9,535

Swings and std deviation aside.

If player A is winning 4bb w/o rakeback and player B is winning 5bb w/rakeback.

Is player A the better of the two, assuming an infinite sample?

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11-14-2021 , 04:18 PM

#72

2021shipit

adept

Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 1,037

Quote:

Originally Posted by newguyhere

Swings and std deviation aside.

If player A is winning 4bb w/o rakeback and player B is winning 5bb w/rakeback.

Is player A the better of the two, assuming an infinite sample?

depends on site / stakes /rakeback%...

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11-14-2021 , 06:28 PM

#73

hyperknit

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 2,718

Quote:

Originally Posted by newguyhere

Swings and std deviation aside.

If player A is winning 4bb w/o rakeback and player B is winning 5bb w/rakeback.

Is player A the better of the two, assuming an infinite sample?

Player B is better.

The goal of poker is to win money. Whoever makes more money is the better player.

Last edited by hyperknit; 11-14-2021 at 06:47 PM.