BTN: $1,004.02
Hero (SB): $1,321.25
BB: $2,106.00

Hero posts SB $5.00, BB posts BB $10.00

Pre Flop: ($15.00) Hero has Q Q

fold, Hero raises to $30.00, BB calls $20.00

Flop: ($60.00, 2 players) 8 4 9
Hero bets $40.00, BB calls $40.00

Turn: ($140.00, 2 players) A
Hero bets $90.00, BB calls $90.00

River: ($320.00, 2 players) 5
Hero ?

6m stats villain is 23/20 with ~9% 3b. Top 5 reg where i play. It could just feel this way, but our pots tend to get large and it seems like i fold a lot. At 6m i play 22/19

Have already discussed this with OP a bit so I have a small advantage I guess.

Bouncing back and forth between b/f and c/f 130bb's deep.

The extra 30bbs adds a ton of value combos to his range OTR, as hes much less likely to want to r/stackoff a naked fd OTF, and may make him less likely to turn a hand without blockers into a bluff.


Pretty sure I like b/f.

Do people float Ace highs that often on such a wet board? I don't think so, so I agree with b/f.

c/f. not close at all imo.

If river is a bet, I'm pretty sure we should be calling a raise.

I quickly stoved this up, and I think it shows that c/c and c/f are fairly close:

Board: 8d 4s 9d As 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.568% 67.57% 00.00% 25 0.00 { A9s-A8s, A4s, Kd7d, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Th7h, Ts7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7c6c, 7h6h, 7s6s, A9o-A8o, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, JdTs, JhTc }
Hand 1: 32.432% 32.43% 00.00% 12 0.00 { QdQh }

It's probably best to just bet though--and not because I expect to be called by worse.

I don't really see how we can do anything besides check/folding tbh

u expect to fold ace?

ditto.

Thought this was live, nevermind.

no.

xf and don't love turn size

what size would u pick and why hate the 90$ here?

I dont mind a c/c tbh with some reads.. I'd be bluffing quite a lot in villains shoes with weak sd value (8x-) and all of my missed JT QT QJ T7 J7ss which I'm calling turn with.

River almost always has to be a check.

After that, it's quite player dependent because it's a great spot for him to bluff a lot of hands, as mikev says 8x and straight draws, maybe even stronger made hands because you fold so often.

That said, you have to realize that his entire range here is just insanely strong given that almost every draw hit and the scary turn usually cuts down some on marginal made hands calling again. He might not even have enough hands to turn into a bluff to ever make this a check call, even if he's betting 100% of his range.

I think the bulk of his combinations that could be bluffing, the off suit straight draws, raise flop or turn (this turn especially) quite a bit. So if we're planning a check-call for that reason, I would highly discount those hands. Also, would you expect Villain to value bet hands like Ax? That could be a big game changer as well.

if i was bluffing in your spot, i would be almost always betting this turn and this river; therefore i think you should bet for value, assuming your opponent can read this as a bluff spot and call you down with a 9

B/F.Only for the underrep turn sizing if we river chk we cannot balance if we intend to be involved with villian on a reg basis. shootaa is posting some solid advice as of late
although I never chk fold here to exploitable on all levels.

You guys who think this spot isn't close are crazy.

All options seem pretty reasonable to me against different villains.

this

It being bvb I'd bet, close between b/f and b/c, depends on how villain plays strong draws in pos like ax/j7dd on earlier streets.

bet/feel

bet/call QQ, really? that means we are bluffcatching ~100% of the time, that cant be good..

I dont even see why we would want to bet in the first plays anyhow.

Yeah seriously betting is too thin even BvB. Check/fold is the clear best option imo.

check decide, can call sometimes with reads based on timing/size, as id expect any good opponent to be turning all non A pairs and worse into bluff

I think villain is more likely to raise/fold 1p hands that we beat OTR than call with them. That really depends if we're betting Ax OTR though. What do we do with AT in this spot?

Aren't most regs at this level going to to either raise or fold if hero bets river?

It largely depends how thinly Villain thinks Hero value bets the river and how often he'll bet fold.

I doubt you'd see only shoves or folds though because the ace is a decent barrel card so it will often polarize player's river betting ranges somewhat (they won't have many/any 9x for value) so those borderline hands don't gain much by shoving since they either run into a monster (hand that gladly or begrudgingly calls) or air.