Villian had 15/10 stats over 30 hands at table, what to do on turn here?


Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $9.65
BTN: $11.89
SB: $11.15
Hero (BB): $10.15
UTG: $10.99
UTG+1: $14.54
MP: $4.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with Q Q
4 folds, BTN raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.30, BTN calls $1, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.90) 5 J 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.90, BTN calls $1.90

Turn: ($6.70) K (2 players)
Hero ?

Very tought spot...

I think that I would b/f, he's going to raise with the K for sure and maybe with a FD.... but if you check he's betting with both hands all the time and maybe with air too.

It's hard that worse hands call you except FD but I think that if you check you are going to fold here or at river too many times the best hand.

At river C/C or C/F depending on bet size and if a heart or an Ace comes on the river.

Against an unknown it's kind of tough to say. I'd bet the flop bigger (like 2.2-2.4), and bet the turn. If you get 3-bet, it's a fold, and if you get flatted, checking back for pot control is probably best. It's possible he could have a-j or 88-10/10, but his reaction to your turn bet should reveal a lot about the strength of his hand.

b/f turn I'd say

Possibly bigger 3Bet pre-flop, definitely bigger on the flop.

The reason bigger on the flop: think - what is his continuance range here? Basically all PP, AJ, and the occasional weak J. We bet big on the flop (close to pot) because that range is pretty inelastic on this board texture (obviously never folding a J, but would a villain give up on this flop in position with a pair like 9-9? Probably not).

I understand the instinct with the K is to think its a bad card, and it is, but not for the reasons you're considering. Its a bad card because it kills the value of your hand, as in, you're going to get much less money from the hands you beat.

Given his line, the only hand he could hold where the K hurts you is KJ. He almost certainly would've 4-bet preflop with AK, and it seems very strange for him to call-float KQ.

My personal opinion is that bet/fold is terrible. Why would you bet here? All the pocket pairs that you beat earlier are now scared and will fold out, so AJ is just about the only hand that would continue here that you beat. And better hands certainly aren't folding.

So if you're not betting, you're obviously checking, and expect him to check behind, and then make a small value bet on just about any river card except an A.