Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP1: $28.87
MP2: $13.36
CO: $25.00
Hero (BTN): $27.42
SB: $26.26
BB: $76.85
UTG: $15.65
UTG+1: $29.61

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with K A
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.72, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.72, 1 fold, BB calls $0.47

Flop: ($2.26) A 3 2 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets $1.32, Hero calls $1.32, BB calls $1.32

Turn: ($6.22) 6 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets $4.08, Hero calls $4.08, BB folds

River: ($14.38) 9 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $12.84, Hero calls $12.84

UTG+1 player was a 11/11 player over only 37 hands, but still clearly very tight especially UTG+1. That is why I flat called with AKo in position cuz I wouldnt know how to respond to a 4bet against such a tight range if I were to 3bet him. Anyway, is this crazy spewy for me to donk off so many chips with top pair top kicker? Due to his tight range, I knew he had to have something strong in order to 3 barrel with this bet sizing, but since his early position raising range is probably like 5%, I didnt put small pairs in his range. Therefore, I felt I may be beat by AA, chopping with AK, or that there was a slight chance he had AQ or a bluff. So since I am beat or chopping alot, I think this may be terrible to call off so much money here. What do you guys think on this one?

BTW, UTG+1 showed 22 for a set!

3bet pre then you can narrow down his range alot and not get stacked to low pairs as ofent. ur reversed implied odds are terrible if u dont 3bet.

In this spot terrible call river. If you 3bet pre its much easier to go with the hand since he will have a MUCH harder timer calling ur 3bet profitably and his KK and AA he will 4bet / shove and you can lay down your hand (unless hes loose pre and not a nit, but he is a nit)


and never say / show results

ugly spot but it looks to me that best case scenario youre chopping.. i dont think he bets that much with AQ on the river. im usually not folding this either but its hard to see what you can beat here

Its only a ugly spot because hero dident 3bet pre. he let his opponent hit his set at a good price and even payed him off the whole way. In a raise / call or limped pot, you have to be aware not to stack off to hands like this

Personally versus someone I only have 37 hands on I think a 3bet is best since you have blocker to KK and AA. But if you're not 3betting you can't really fold vs this guy, except mayyyyybe on the river. And BTW if he showed up with 22 he is clearly not as tight your stats show.

So its okay to stack off in a 3bet pot in the same situation right, just not a raise/call or limped pot you mean?

Stats doesnt give ****, after 200 hands he might be 14/12 nit and after 10000 hands he might be 30/25. Stats are only there to show if something is compleatly out of hand, look at verneers thread on this. I would say you need 500 hands atleast, to draw a picture of villian bet behavior

ofc its more okay, you narrow down his range allmost to the point where he cant call profitably with pocketpairs like 22 because he is only gonna hit 1:8,5 and he is not even gonna get paid off ½ that time if hero plays accordingly, or if hero misses compleatly

don't post results it alters the feedback you get.

I think its okay to flat pre in position with AKo, if you 3bet you will probably need to fold to a four bet.

flop: hes betting into 2 people so while it is a dry flop I expect him to give up on some of his air and weak made hands. Player of this type I would expect him to check /call with some of his made hands like KK/QQ. Id say probably half of his air will cbet on this board.

Turn: I feel like he gives up on most of his air here as he bet on the flop and got 2 callers, his bet on the turn shows strength, I feel on the turn he has something in the neighborhood of AK, AQ, AJs, 22/33/ AA and id probably weight out and give him one combo of 66 (because i think he often will c/f that on the flop). Draw hands are unlikely because the A is out there and you hold the K, i doubt this villain raised with 45s but there is a small chance, i might give him a combo.

River: I don't think he is betting this big on the river with AK/AQ or AJ, only air he gets to on the river I think gets there with the spade draw.... I think your beat and have to fold. Especially after 37 hands villain probably views you as a fish and it looks like you have an A that you don't want to fold. even in the rare instance villain has a bluff here i think your right to fold.

So you think in this hand that narrowing his range enough so that I can play him properly is more important than 3betting him and potentially having to fold AK to a 4bet then? Not to mention that I would be folding out hands that I have dominated like AQ.

Agree that the more stats you have on an opponent, the better idea of his tendencies you have. But if I see an opponent as 11/11 over 37 hands, I will still use these stats to influence my decisions, because an 11/11 over 37 hands is very likely to be a nittish villain overall, and it is much more unlikely that he is very loose overall. If he is actually is 30/25, then I think that he is the exception and not the rule, and if you decide not to use any stats without a X sized hand sample then that is a serious mistake. So IMO, yes, stats do matter, even over small sample sizes.

Um, no. Please don't wait until you have 500 hands before starting to make reads on someone. You made a read and it happened to be wrong. It happens. 37 hands is fine to get a sense of a player.

This seems like a bloody good reason to never flat with AK.

Not sure that 3 betting really does anything. If you think by 3 betting small pocket pairs are going to fold I think you are off. If he he just flats your 3 bet then you gotta think his range is 99-QQ and AK so if nay high card flops you are thinking he flopped set or made is AK. Just a tough hand I think the key is against a player that seems that tight you gotta be able to lay down top pair top kicker for that much.

Can someone please post a link......THANK YOU

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/69.../#post15849625

Awesome...thanks

in the example above you can see an example of what a i posted about changing stats as you get more hands on villain. It will allways change, because villains play will allways be changing. Like ours is.

imo all streets were played fine.
Pre you can flat or 3b - both are good imo.
Flop, turn and river you can call b/c he could be doing this with AQ.

There are only 2 hands in his range that he can show up with - AQ and 99. You beat AQ. There are more AQ combos than 99 combos.

Now when you know that he's opening 22 UTG+1 you can take any Axs hand and 3bet his EP opens b/c he's opening so stupid hands from UTG+1.

One of many awesome Verneer uNL threads

Oops, too slow.

But I'm 3betting pf with AK most of the time in this position.