QQ SB vs UTG raiser -
raiser is a fish who has it out for me - ok player does not respect position - he slowrolled some new guy earlier and i made a comment on it, after that he is always in pots with me. My image here is tight/aggressive, my cbets keep getting called down so they don't believe me however won some big pots with good hands too.
my stack = $650
His = $134 UTG Bets to 7, folds to me in SB I 3bet to 20(mistake should have made it 25-30 in this game so he is 4x to call) UTG calls Flop J-10-3DD
I bet 25
call
9d
I bet 30
He shoves for $59 more
I smell set/2 pair but call, dont think he hit the flush but that is a maybe - i think his PFR would be more like a small pair. Call $59 to win $181 = just under 3:1.
Outs = any K, any 8, 2 Qs = 10 outs if a set. If 2 pair I add 6 outs (any 9, any 3). 10 outs = 20 percent, 16 outs = 32 percent, borderline call. I think there is a good chance he is bluffing and call. Do you think:
1) Calling turn shove is justified?
2) Should I have check/called turn? If so how much would you call? What is your folding threshold here?
Yeah then this is a super-trivial commitment decision for you on the flop. Don't overthink this hand in case you lost. If he's capable of calling with stuff like AJ pre, then you'll always want to stack off in a 3b pot whenever your big pair makes an overpair. It's a pretty mechanical stackoff given his stack size and his preflop range. (But again, don't give him good odds by betting too small.)
You can't possibly fold that hand at any point post flop after 3-betting. I'm sure you lost, oh well. Turn is an easy bet/call ANY given stacks/action/read.
Yes, I snapcalled, river bricked and he turned over JTo for 2 pair.
Thanks for the advice guys, I think i just need to fine tune this hand and raise to $25-30 pre and PSB on flop then shove turn. Considering villain and his emotional play I think he will call me down light (TPGK more than good for this type) 75%+ of the time.
