1/2 NL All in river bet on a wet board with a set
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 33
Hero: BB $3.82
Villan: UTG +2 : $1.82
.01/.02 nl
Hero in BB w/ 8c8d
Folds to villan
Villan raises to 4 BB folds to me, call.
Flop: 8sKcQs
Check, check
Turn: 2c
Hero bet 5 BB, villan raises to 20 BB, hero calls
River: 9s
Hero checks, villan goes all in, hero tanks and folds.
I dont have official stats on the villan without a hud but he was play tightish. Not overly tight but he folded a lot of hands and bet on the ones he played.
Raising from UTG +2 makes me think he can have A10 suited or offsuit, 77+ not eights, KJs, QJs, JT maybe a hand like 108s but i doubt it. At the flop i checked because thats what ive been doing with all my hands OOP and i really expected villan to bet bc he decided to play the hand and he would continue to be tightish and aggressive. However, he checked, which gives flushes a free card and i know is bad. But when the river was a club i decided not give another one and bet to see where i was at. He check raised which was interesting. Most of the time check raises at the micros ive noticed people dont like to bluff like that so i perceived it as strong.
So i asked what hands does he raise, check, reraise. Any straight or flush draw. He didnt raise the flop which confuses me. I could make an argument for spades or clubs. He could also have a larger set. I mean even a hand like 10 8 which probably wouldnt reraise now has a pair plus a gut shot and even more if its suited. Basically i believe i am behind a significant amount of his range but i called hoping the river to brick.
It came the 9 of spades which is one of the worst cards i believe. Straights and flushes get there. I check he goes all in. The only thing i beat at this point are busted club draws, random bluffs that i dont see him havimg, and the off chance hes stacking off with a hand like AK suited with the ace of spades. So i folded. Is my reasoning right here? It so hard to fild a set but i mean i feel like everything got there.
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 124
re-raise turn if is a cooler so be it, he could be slow playing QQ KK checking behind AK doesnt seem like so take it out of the equation, sometimes 22 AJs (if he is capable of doing this plays), i would reraise turn and go for it. i dont think you have better spots to get value from that set. from his range QQ KK AJs ATs 22(do he open baby pairs on UTG?) QKs QJs and somebluffs (maybe?).
does he exploits reraise on turns often?.
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 33
Thanks for the response.
I dont see him opening up his small pocket pairs like that in early position. Maybe 99 i could give him credit for. So just so im reading this right u mean jam turn?
The reasoning being that im ahead of all of his one and two pair hands and drawing hands that the value i can get from them justifies the jam?
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 857
I would definitely fold river, unless I had a solid read. It's unlikely he would play AKo this way, especially on this scary board. I don't think a solid player would jam with 2pair a lot since they only get called by better, they would rather go for a value bet around half pot size or even 1/3. I think he has you beat at least 90% of the time here.