Bovada / Ignition, Hold'em No Limit - $0.50/$1.00 - 5 players

Seat 2 (UTG): $54.46 (54 bb)
Seat 3 (CO): $75.67 (76 bb)
Seat 5 (BU): $127.00 (127 bb)
Hero (SB): $141.77 (142 bb)
Seat 1 (BB): $319.22 (319 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50) Hero (Hero) is SB with J♥ A♠
3 players fold, Hero (SB) raises to $3, Seat 1 (BB) calls $2

Flop: ($6) 2♦ 5♥ 6♠ (2 players)
Hero (SB) checks, Seat 1 (BB) bets $2.85, Hero (SB) calls $2.85

Turn: ($11.70) J♦ (2 players)
Hero (SB) checks, Seat 1 (BB) checks

River: ($11.70) Q♠ (2 players)
Hero (SB) bets $8.34, Seat 1 (BB) raises to $22, Hero (SB) raises to $135.92 (all-in),

Do you think they fold more than 75%+ of their river raising range to your shove?

Do you think they are:

a) Bluffing-raising the river enough
&
b) Folding a decent portion of value hands as strong as weak two-pair like Q5s/Q2s

If so, then your bluff might be slightly +EV or breakeven. If not, it's a hugely -EV. This is why I don't like these massive 3b river bluffs in practice. Not sure if it's solver approved, I imagine AJ is close to indifferent facing the river raise.

I like the rest of this line though. Good check-call on the flop, good lead on the river.

Seems unnecessary vs an uncapped range. Repping pretty thin only 43s, JJ, QQ+. Theoretically those hands plus flopped sets just pure xr the flop so meh.

Are you betting A5 & A2 otf? I would rather take this line OTR with one of those two hands.

The question I’d be asking is what mediocre value hands does he have in his river raising range compared to bluffs.

For 140BB he might have enough Q2s/Q5s/Q6s for the bluff to be +EV. Not sure if that would be higher than the EV to just calling

AJ > A5/A2. We want to block QJ.

What do you think his value range is on the river after the raise?

Of those hands, how many do you think fold to your jam?

I don't feel like enough players are capable of folding the hands we are targeting to make this profitable, but I could be wrong. It is def a super interesting idea though. Playing around with the solver, it does seem to 3bet shove some Jx here. Cool play, but I feel like it is probably not working well in practice. I would probably range fold it it though, lol.

If we had it, why are we checking turn? Don't think villain had QQ, JJ in range, since that would USUALLY be a 3bet.

Me thinks some sets, 2pairs, straights, etc are out there.

I would be very suspicious of this line as you rep very thin. What value hands do you have here? QJ? Q6s and Q5s?

Also I don't think holding the J is that relevant of a blocker to turn such a strong hand into a bluff. Villain doesn't have any AQ in range so holding A is irrelevant as well.

I think we need to represent a believable story for a good bluff.
I can really find no hand we can represent but I am not playing 100NL.
What hands can we have?

I have simmed this, with node locked optimal play simplified for first action of SB.

Took awhile, but it makes for great training (and which hands to bluff with).

You had some show down value. If villain was bluffing, then a call would suffice. However, BB over bet the pot on the river, an optimal play if they think you have a queen. I don't know if this play worked, but it is definitely not theoretically sound for the long run.

^ BB didn't overbet on the river.

DooDoo's play was fine. AJ has the best blockers for bluffing.

Maybe not your definition of overbet, but $22 > $19.

According to solver, no its not fine. And he had show down. Its a blunder, theoretically. We are not looking for high caliber blockers, when BBs range is over realizing equity and ev on this run out. You think shove will fold out two pair or better?

Yeah, by my definition $22 is less than half pot.

So, what's the solver bluffing with then? It never bluffs??

Nope, it bluffs with some non show down hands (including villain).

As for the play, it has me calling with AJ, and folding to large bets on river. This is never a shove, even when I put the cards in. You have show down vs villains range. Our total ev is less than BB.

I ran the game (its enlightening, and came in handy for my session this morning). There are so many combos with SB vs BB srp. Now, it depends on the run out (playing the solution has different cards for turn and river), but as I recall, some were Txs, Qx no queen on board).

I will pull it up now: on turn, villain SHOULD be betting 92% of hands, but we don't know.

Going with a little different route (since not locking and re running)

Solver like 98o, Kd8d, T8s for the bet. Ajo is a check, along with AJs. Villain should be raising with JT's and J9's, and the sets, straights.

2 pair were already accounted for in a previous street.

If DooDoo checks, he calls with AJo. That is what I meant by show down value. Supposed to call with A2s, but that would be kind of a bluff, and might be spew.

How is it possible that not even a single sentence makes sense?

Lol, IDK. Also while being so assertive/overly confident always.

Sure it bluffs, just not with hands as strong as AJ.

It will mix between XC, BC, and BF on the river with AJ

Some of the hands it uses to 3b the river are

JTs, J9s, J4s, Q7dd, Q4dd, Q3dd. All very low frequency except for JThh

If AJ folds at some frequency, it's not too strong to bluff.

I don't really see why JT/J9 would be better bluffs than AJ. I'd think we don't want to block QT/Q9 when we shove. Either way, shoving with AJ can't be terrible. The important thing is to have the J or Q blocker.

You said earlier we want to block QJ

JT/J9 block QJ just as well as AJ.

The main difference is JT/J9 have no SDV when they get raised on the river.

What do you mean by that? They beat all the bluffs, don't they? Just like AJ.

To expand on what Brokenstars asked, when picking hands for bluffs in this unorthodox spot, is it more important to block QJ or hands like Q5s? Q5s and hands like it seem to make more sense for Vs river range the way this hand played. To me, it makes more sense to have hands that block hands in his value range. Thus, turning your stronger Jx hands just doesn't do it for me, personally. I think I would prefer just folding to the raise as much as it sucks.

Looking at the solution is fine, but where does the actual EV come from in equilibrium when you jam this? I can only think of 3 sources:

1) Folding out value (like brokenstars implied - how much thin value do they raise on the river?)
2) Not getting bluffed off your own SDV (if you hero call the river raise this doesn't apply, if they underbluff the raise this becomes less important)
3) Balancing your river 3b jamming range such that people call your river value wider (doesn't apply on iggy)

Are there any other sources of EV from the bluff that I'm missing here?

FWIW, I checked this hand out on GTO wizard and it does take this exact line with AJo, so the play is theoretically sound. But it's more important to understand the why than the what.

It's quite remarkable, actually.