Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem $0.10(BB)
HJ ($11.98) [VPIP: 19.9% | PFR: 15% | AGG: 41.1% | 3-Bet: 3.5% | Hands: 293]
HERO ($46.68) [VPIP: 26.5% | PFR: 22.4% | AGG: 33% | 3-Bet: 10.8% | Hands: 91971]
BTN ($9.24) [VPIP: 24.7% | PFR: 18.3% | AGG: 37.2% | 3-Bet: 3.9% | Hands: 240]
SB ($13.57) [VPIP: 23.4% | PFR: 17.1% | AGG: 30.8% | 3-Bet: 5.8% | Hands: 684]
BB ($10.95) [VPIP: 17% | PFR: 10.5% | AGG: 33.7% | 3-Bet: 0.7% | Hands: 360]
UTG ($14.90) [VPIP: 36.8% | PFR: 21.9% | AGG: 39.6% | 3-Bet: 6.1% | Hands: 124]

Dealt to Hero: Q Q

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.30, BTN Calls $0.30, SB Calls $0.25, BB Calls $0.20

Hero SPR on Flop: [7.45 effective]
Flop ($1.20): 2 T 6
SB Checks, BB Bets $0.90 (Rem. Stack: 9.75), HERO Calls $0.90 (Rem. Stack: 45.48), BTN Folds, SB Folds

Turn ($3.00): 2 T 6 A
BB Checks, HERO Checks

River ($3.00): 2 T 6 A J
BB Bets $2.45 (Rem. Stack: 7.30), HERO Raises To $45.48 (allin)

I think you are trying to make an uber-nit fold a set in this spot. No clue if it works--they don't like to fold big hands.

Pry just fold flop

huh?

fold

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So you are turning your hand into a bluff? What part of his range folds to that line?

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I'm not kidding. The type of player that plays 17/10/0.7 and then donks multiway on T62 is a special kind of individual. I think his range is like JJ+, sets only. The worst hand I can conceive this player donking is AT, which is top two. I would heavily weight his range towards TT/66/22 out of what I've stated, so yeah, I probably just muck everything any time this player donks out or 3bets unless stack depth is sufficiently large enough for me to justify calling vs a very very very tight and obvious range.

I think the river jam is super punt vs. this guy, to be blunt.

river looks really bad vs this guy
and I'd like to see myself fold flop

Bluffing really tight players can be good. I don't think just playing ABC against them is the proper exploit. I'd actually rather bluff a tight player like this than a loose player.

Or maybe i just got lucky.

Results

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem $0.10(BB)
HJ ($11.98) [VPIP: 19.9% | PFR: 15% | AGG: 41.1% | 3-Bet: 3.5% | Hands: 293]
HERO ($46.68) [VPIP: 26.5% | PFR: 22.4% | AGG: 33% | 3-Bet: 10.8% | Hands: 91971]
BTN ($9.24) [VPIP: 24.7% | PFR: 18.3% | AGG: 37.2% | 3-Bet: 3.9% | Hands: 240]
SB ($13.57) [VPIP: 23.4% | PFR: 17.1% | AGG: 30.8% | 3-Bet: 5.8% | Hands: 684]
BB ($10.95) [VPIP: 17% | PFR: 10.5% | AGG: 33.7% | 3-Bet: 0.7% | Hands: 360]
UTG ($14.90) [VPIP: 36.8% | PFR: 21.9% | AGG: 39.6% | 3-Bet: 6.1% | Hands: 124]

Dealt to Hero: Q Q

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.30, BTN Calls $0.30, SB Calls $0.25, BB Calls $0.20

Hero SPR on Flop: [7.45 effective]
Flop ($1.20): 2 T 6
SB Checks, BB Bets $0.90 (Rem. Stack: 9.75), HERO Calls $0.90 (Rem. Stack: 45.48), BTN Folds, SB Folds

Turn ($3.00): 2 T 6 A
BB Checks, HERO Checks

River ($3.00): 2 T 6 A J
BB Bets $2.45 (Rem. Stack: 7.30), HERO Raises To $45.48 (allin)

you basically rep JJ or maybe KQdd, so blocking Qd is good. they might think we can jam AJ, not sure if you do that, probably a bit too thin and also we could potentially check AA a very small amount ott here

his range looks like 22/66, AT some % and maybe JT, plus the occasional 78s/89s etc that bet/folds river and maaybe TT a very low frequency given action pre

It doesn't actually look that bad to me. I don't think either player has a nut advantage, or the nuts at all almost always tbh lol given you probly stab turn, villain probably barrels it, mostly, although he might have random leads with KQ that decided not bet turn so this combo helps us.

my only problem is that. we will be incentivised to bet turn with KQdd to apply a ton of pressure, like 85% psb+

also, we should be betting our sets ott and folding KQ otf or betting turn with it, so really, we rep nothing if we play well, but if wanna gamble and hope they assume you check back turn and now rep the nuts/sets/AJ then this might be ok. I just wouldn't have a jamming range here otr I don't think (I'd consider JJ I guess)

obv not folding flop (although his sizing would make me cautious)

Why can't I have KQ or KQ?

I mean, I guess you can. Bluff might be better if you have exactly QQ lol

Although, if you are not bluffing those ott, what bluffs have you got? KJs? A little thinner to call flop with that though.

I agree, bluffing tight players can be good, especially when they start folding sets/two pairs. However, I'd like to know this to be the case before I start making plays like this as I think we can generally agree a very tight player and especially in this instance is going to have a very strong range. You are TRYING to get him to fold 2p+, which IMO is suicide. It appears he did this time so good on you.

Some relevant stats for plays like this are going to be difficult as this hand plays quite differently than most other hands due to being multiway and having donked so I like to keep things simple, stupid, and just fold vs. the stronger range, but for other more regular SRP situations you'll want to know his fold to cbet for flop/turn/river, fold to river raises, and any other fold stats in the game tree as usually if someone is over folding "slightly" somewhere they are over folding slightly elsewhere also.

It's also important to note that in instances like this, while although you block the nuts (KQ) your opponent never has KQ, so your blockers are only relevant at the very least from a randomizing standpoint as a human, and if you did bluff all QQ then obv. already over bluffing. If you pay attention to this microstakes forum you will see a lot of bad blocker bluffs that have no relevance.

Floating those vs nit lead and two players behind? Unlikely.

yeah true. I think this guy had JTs? I just don't see him folding a set. Too bad we can't see hole cards on this site

I'm curious how or where this is connected to pluribus?