We finding folds against this kind of nonsense?



PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 240.5 BB
SB: 108.7 BB
BB: 197.5 BB
UTG: 103 BB
MP: 105.8 BB
Hero (CO): 197.8 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T J

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 8 BB, fold

Flop: (21.5 BB, 2 players) J J 3
BB checks, Hero bets 13.5 BB, BB calls 13.5 BB

Turn: (48.5 BB, 2 players) K
BB checks, Hero bets 24 BB, BB calls 24 BB

River: (96.5 BB, 2 players) 6
BB bets 151 BB and is all-in, Hero 🤮

33 unlikely. KK is possible. KJs = 1 combo.

I don't even think AJs plays it like this since you can have KK.

Not folding.

Cold calling the 3bet oop gives villain a pretty tight range.

If villain has AJs or KJs, you feel like a turn raise would be in order for him. Maybe even QJs.

Basically, I don't see what value hand, other than maybe 66, would want to take this line. Why not raise turn and get calls from FD? This play seems like it is designed to maximise fold equity, the river is a brick so I don't understand why he would have a leading range. And, you block fh and higher trips, so definite call for me.

snap call? check call check call donk jam on a river that changes nothing.

yes i fold

people have no balls to bluff this and this guy cc BB, his range can be anything and he is a fish. I don't even think fish will bluff here. Only type of fish jamming here as a bluff is someone you should already know to call against.

I expect to see 33/66/KJ/KK pretty often, even KJo

In my experience this is a boat very often - 33/66/KJ

Misread this hand. I didn't see cold caller in the BB and that we are against him.

This is like 33 always. I'd fold.

Yeah thanks: I think this is my biggest leak, trying to apply theory to morons


PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 240.5 BB
SB: 108.7 BB
BB: 197.5 BB
UTG: 103 BB
MP: 105.8 BB
Hero (CO): 197.8 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T J

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 8 BB, fold

Flop: (21.5 BB, 2 players) J J 3
BB checks, Hero bets 13.5 BB, BB calls 13.5 BB

Turn: (48.5 BB, 2 players) K
BB checks, Hero bets 24 BB, BB calls 24 BB

River: (96.5 BB, 2 players) 6
BB bets 151 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 151 BB

BB shows A J (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 69%, Flop 80%, Turn 86%)
Hero shows T J (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 31%, Flop 20%, Turn 14%)
BB wins 383.5 BB



Sigh. Passive fish value move deluxe. I need new 🧦

if a guy has 0 bluffs 1 value cobmo is still always the nuts

How likely do you think is it that villain might never be bluffing here?
How likely do you think is it that villain actually over bluffs this spot?

Even if villain finds exactly appropriate amounts of bluffs for these kind of lines we are not missing out much by overfolding.
The only way we can make huge mistakes here if is villain is literally never bluffing or overbluffing this and we chose the wrong approach.

I believe that in a lot of these donkbet scenarios villains are more likely to never be bluffing than to overbluff.

I don't think you should ever assume that

this is spot on.

I have JTs as fold in CO vs BB 3bet.

I'd say against the 10NL player pool this is a fold. There are some players I'm beating into the pot though.

I could probably write an entire book on the x/c, x/c, donk lead line. It's an extremely fishy but polarizing line. From what I can tell, 95% of pots the thought process is this:
Flop: I crush the board and need to slowplay
Turn: I crush the board and need to slowplay
River: I need value on this street and can't risk it going x/x so I bet.

However the other 5% of the time it's:
Flop: I have a draw so I call
Turn: I have a draw so I call
River: I didn't get there and I want to win this big pot so here's a hail mary bluff I hope works.

I think the problem is that good players often level themselves into thinking it's the 5% bluff time, especially on a board like this where the flush draw whiffed, when in reality it's still a high % nutted.

Those %'s are rough estimates of mine, and river bet size does play a factor. I wonder if there's a way to query a PT4 database for every hand where a certain line is taken to see what gets shown.

Cool story bro.

FYI, CO 3b and BB cc.

Guess it depends on the ranges you choose. I like mine, been dong well.

Your ranges may be fine but the situation you described and the situation that happened in this hand are entirely different.

We have strategy discussions to help with not just observing bad beats, but maybe how not to have them in the first place.

Ah, I missed MP there. I have JTs as fold vs HJ rfi. There is no 3bet here. 3bets start with QTs+, some versions of Axs, KJs only, call the rest. I like merged ranges.

Again, it may be painful, but I have found myself losing more when I deviate from the gto ranges. I win more when others do not adhere to gto ranges. Just my take.

JTs my be ops fave hand. I say have at it, but, then this occurs.