I don't need any comments on whether I should 3bet KTs there or not, I elected to do so there. Would you choose to bluff with the KT ott there or would you rather take a free card?

My thoughts: I prefer jamming instead of a smaller bet as I'd do that with any value hand here as well. Do let me know if you prefer betting smaller! I wouldn't bluff with any AKd combos since I'd check them otf so I think the possible bluffs that remain are ATs,KTs and A6s that I would 3bet every now and then. I can expect him to 4bet AA/KK pre and with a Q ott it becomes more likely he has JJ.

x flop
x turn

very bad play

some questions for OP:

You have 4.6k hands on UTG villain, go back in your database and do some Sherlocking and let us know:

1. what you think he is calling your preflop 3bet with
2. what you think he is calling your 90% psb otf with
3. what you think he is folding on the turn to your overbet

I wouldn't be 3b this guy pre. If he were a jive maniac fish then sure. If he shuts down post then call. But he looks competent so dont mingle with him imo.

Post is spewey.

Very elaborated answer. Tell me what your range for betting otf would look like. Personally I'd like checking hands like AKdd and AQdd since they have showdown value as well. If you don't think I should bluff with SDs, that leaves me to only ATdd,KTdd and A6dd to bluff with otf and no bluffs left ott. Clearly unbalanced.

Villain opens 22% in EP and calls 53% to 3bet. He 4bets 12% (12% of 22% is ~2.6% of hands), which consists of roughly QQ+ and AK. Sometimes he'll probably call with AK/QQ and instead 4bet bluffs with a small amount of hands. His calling range is 0.53x0.22=0.12, which looks roughly like (I used PEL so don't worry about recalculating): 77-QQ,A9s-AQs,KTs+,QTs+,98s-JTs,ATo-AQo,KQo,KJo,QJo. His fold to cbet in 3bet pot is 32%, calling 47% and raising 22%. We started out with a 156 hands calling range and otf it becomes 143. He's calling .47*143=67 hands. Raising .22*143=31 is quite a lot of hands: 77-99,JTs,T9s,98s,all FDs is 26 hands, just to give you an insight (I'm not saying he raises those).

Quite like the 3bet. Personally id check the flop and take a free card . Just think it's hard to get utg to fold anything here other than some combos of AK AQs so i see very little fold equity. We can always stab/bluff on the turn/river.

3bet is fine in my opinion- I’ve found you can’t profitably flat this hand here so it’s better as a 3bet bluff.

Flop is close- I think you should bet KThh and KTdd and check this combo. Turn I prefer a small size and blasting river on a blank if just called- I don’t think jamming is the best play.

Just to clarify, you think he is calling your 3b with QJo/KJo/ATo?

Before evaluating the flop strategy it's really important for us to determine what range we think both OOP and IP players have before continuing any discussion.

villain opens 22% utg ? or is ep utg and mp combined.

Yeah ordinarily versus a spewtard but not versus this opponent. We can't just say "o this works great as a bluff lets three bet it" like you're a bot. You gotta consider the opponent dawg! .... His range is tight to begin with and his continuation range is even tighter which includes every combo of AQ QQ AA and the remaining AK KK and maybe JJ TT combos which is calling otf every time and maybe we're folding TT and JJ ott but not likely which means we are going to have to spew off ott or otr. It's a loosing play. This isnt where the money is in the micros. Mingle with the fish not the regs ... Fold pre.

^^^ A 22% utg range isn't tight. And even vs a tighter range i may still chose to bluff a hand like this and incorporate some hands like AK JJ QQ into my calling range vs such villain types. Whether or not we should be 3betting polarized vs this villain is debatable. And 3betting pre doesn't mean we have to play big pots postflop with marginal holdings. It's just a bluff that picks up showdown value most of the time postflop.

What's his WTSD? Is that f3b based off his overall stats? His OOP stats are probably tighter than IP so I'm not sure that putting KJo in his defending range is correct.
I don't understand how checking flop with AdKd or AdQd can be more profitable than betting against this guy. Anyways I agree with others about checking flop with this hand. His fold to cbet is really low and he has more sets and 2P than you do. I'd expect to get raised on this flop a lot.
I think the best way to exploit this guy is to 3bet a strong linear range and bluff less postflop

Yeah I see that now. I still have apprehension about going head to head with regs unless we're in a pot together with fish.

Thanks for all the replies and considerations! From a game theoretic perspective it looked ok to bet/shove. But indeed I have to agree that he just hits this board really hard and therefore I should be willing to take a free card. I knew that opinions on whether to 3bet or not would be divided. I just like to mix it up and sometimes choose these type of hands to 3bet although leaning towards a strong linear 3bet range vs this guy

From a GTO perspective I'm actually spot on with my vbet/bluff ratio ott for that bet size with the following range: AA-JJ, AdTd, KdTd, Ad6d (vbets, 24 hands); remaining ATs, KTs, A6s (bluffs, 9 hands). GTO ratio says to have 8.8 bluff hands with 24 vbets at that bet size. But the bottom line is that my value range is just way too thin here?

You need to check flop with basically your whole range unless he really is calling way too wide pre with stuff like QJ/KJ off suit combos

hands like AA/KK are not value jams on turn at all, and is again a spot where if you did decide to bet flop you should just always check (including your flushes/straights/sets).

This is because villain has a huge advantage on this board. If his pre range is something like 66-JJ along with some suited broadways/connectors then he has a much higher frequency of sets otf than you do, along with always having JTs. You really don't have 77/88/99 here and if you do it's probably at a low frequency. You may have JTs but also not at a 100% freq if you are incorporating a flatting strat preflop.

So, yeah

check flop

check turn

it's not really close.