Quote:
Originally Posted by darrelplant
I read it. Did you read the part where even if Negreanu's 11th place finish had been included in the selection that the group would have missed 100% ROI by a significant amount?
You are free to take my bet for 2017 and I am willing to bump up the stakes (within reason). You can also split the action on the other side of the bet if you would like. I am a very frequent marketplace investor and buy $20K+ worth of action every year and we can obviously find someone trustworthy to escrow.
My point is essentially that a big part of 100% ROI for 100% players is going to be a chance that one or more of the players final table or better (especially better). When I play cash, I win most of my sessions. When I buy tournament action, I lose on most of the individual packages, but win big on occasional deep runs. This is the game.
In our setup, you could essentially have 5 years of total cashes that are $5 million, $1,500,000, $1,350,000, $1,250,000, $900,000 (this is just an example as 5 is clearly a small sample size, but it is what it is!). This is standard for tournament poker where distribution of prizes is significantly skewed to the left.
However, if the bet is a standard over/under, the under side has a significant advantage as in scenario above the over side would win only 1 out 5 despite the fact that the overall results are consistent with 100% EV.
Therefore the over side needs to be compensated for the times when the winnings exceed 100%.
If you think top 100 players are close to breakeven, it is a slam dunk bet for you!
So, here are the following conditions for next year that I think would be fair and I would gladly take the over side on:
a) I pick 100 players with no exclusions
b) They need to cash for $2,000,000 (100% ROI). If a player does not play, I get $20,000 back to my total
c) If they cash for less than $2,000,000 combined (after refunds for non-participants), I pay you $1,000
d) If they cash for more than $2,000,000 - I receive proportionally higher payout depending on how much they cash.
For example, if they cash for $2,500,000 combined, I get $1,250. If they cash for $3,000,000 combined, I get $1,500. If they cash for $4,000,000 combined, I get $2,000. I am wiling to cap your side's losses at $5,000 (in the extremely unlikely event of $10,000,000