** Event 54: $10,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** - Page 2 - WSOP and Tournament Circut

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** Event 54: $10,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)**

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07-12-2008 , 07:10 PM

#26

Moose

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 548

Quote:

Originally Posted by jogsxyz

Skill is a linear function of number of hands played.
Measured in bb/100 hands.

Luck is a linear function of the square root of number of hands played.
Measured in (bb)²/100 hands.
The square root of that is the standard deviation.

The stronger player wants to play as many hands as possible to
determine the champion.
The weaker player wants to play as few hands as possible.

Big pots leads to fewer hands and more luck.

I always thought it was Sklansky that proved that, when he talked about such a scenario in TPFAP, if you are at a very tough table or generally outclassed, you should overplay a lot more (IE the example given was pushing all-in or check-raising all-in on the flop with gutshot + flushdraw + one overcard).

Similarly, if I was in a heads-up no-limit tournament and was paired up against a world class player, I'd simply push all-in with my top 90% of hands flop. I don't think I'd have a 25% chance of outplaying the guy, but I'd surely get that with such a strategy.

Quote

07-12-2008 , 07:19 PM

#27

RutgersKev

adept

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 866

What does everyone think of Hellmuth's laydown?

His hand: Qd 7d

Board 6h 5d 4d

Action: Hellmuth Checked, 2nd player all in for 400k, 3rd player folded. Hellmuth layed it down.

Because Hellmuth doubled up to around 750k a few hands later, we can only assume he would have been all in for his tournament life (or close to it) if he called.

Thoughts?

Quote

07-12-2008 , 07:28 PM

#28

DogFace

veteran

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,938

Quote:

Originally Posted by RutgersKev

I'm no expert, but from what I gather, Hellmuth doesn't like to risk his tourney life unless he has a made hand. He probably put the guy on an overpair or a set and decided that even though he may have been a statistical favorite, his odds were better by mucking and waiting for a safer moment to get his chips in.

Quote

07-12-2008 , 07:51 PM

#29

kevdawg21

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 151

Quote:

Originally Posted by RutgersKev

There's no way I wouldn't have had all my chips in the middle on that flop. Obviously Hellmuth has an unorthodox method, but even if he passes on spots that seem absurd, it clearly works for him given his record.

Quote

07-12-2008 , 07:59 PM

#30

Moose

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 548

Quote:

Originally Posted by kevdawg21

Exactly. I would be inclined to play that hand very strong.

If the guy has the nuts with a diamond blocker, Hellmuth has 38% equity. If it's a set, Hellmuth has 39%. And if it's a "pair plus open ended straight draw" hand (IE 6c 7h) which would be a reasonable hand to put Hellmuth to the test in a sign of weakness, Hellmuth has 54%. The hand Hellmuth fears the most is actually a bigger flush draw.

Some knowledge of the preflop betting and position would help an awful lot; anyone know it?

Quote

07-12-2008 , 08:56 PM

#31

Dynasty

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 26,059

Quote:

Originally Posted by kevdawg21

Obviously Hellmuth has an unorthodox method, but even if he passes on spots that seem absurd, it clearly works for him given his record.

It's not fair to analyze a single Hellmuth fold, no matter how big a laydown, in a vaccuum. It has to be viewed as part of his entire game.

Obviously, his overall no-limit hold 'em tournament game has achieved better results than anybody else (7 bracelets as well as one pot-limit bracelet).

Quote

07-12-2008 , 09:08 PM

#32

CrazyLond

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 3,017

Allen Cunningham Eliminated
Allen Cunningham moved all in preflop from the hijack position for 255,000 and Tim Loecke made the call in the small blind.

Cunningham:
Loecke:

The board ran out to end another deep Main Event run for Allen Cunningham in 117th place for $41,816 in prize money.

Quote

07-12-2008 , 09:31 PM

#33

jogsxyz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 6,362

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moose

This was known by statisticians before DS was born. He is hardly entitled to credit for this proof.

Quote

07-12-2008 , 09:58 PM

#34

kevdawg21

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 151

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dynasty

I agree. Clearly, based on two decades of consistent excellence, he's one of the best tournament NLH players in the world. I wasn't really trying to criticize his game, or even say for certain that he made a mistake, I was just noting that Hellmuth definitely has his own way of playing NLH that can be perplexing at times.

Quote

07-12-2008 , 10:02 PM

#35

kevdawg21

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 151

From Pokernews:

Short Stack for Sheikhan (Suddenly)
Shawn Sheikhan raised from late position, and was reraised by Jamal Kunbuz from the button. It folded back around to Sheikhan who shoved his entire stack -- around 1.5 million -- and Kunbuz snap-called.

Sheikhan
Kunbuz

The board ran out , and Kunbuz catapults to 3.2 million. Sheikhan is now all of sudden way down to just 75,000.

Wow. Sheiky loses 95% of his very healthy stack AI pf with JJ vs. AA. Pretty colossal blow up by the Sheik IMO.

Quote

07-12-2008 , 10:17 PM

#36

spamhead

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 595

Quote:

Originally Posted by kevdawg21

This is the worst play I have EVER seen, unless the guy with AA was running over Sheiky all day nd he finally decided to make a stand. But with the blinds 10K/20K this just makes no sense.

Quote

07-12-2008 , 10:58 PM

#37

CincyLady

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 1,934

Just out of curiosity, but has anyone seen any blurbs saying how many women are still left in the ME (if any)?

Quote

07-12-2008 , 11:02 PM

#38

CrazyLond

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 3,017

at least 2, Lisa Parsons has 1.2m and Tiffany Michelle has 3m

Quote

07-12-2008 , 11:14 PM

#39

jogsxyz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 6,362

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrazyLond

at least 2, Lisa Parsons has 1.2m and Tiffany Michelle has 3m

At dinner break exactly two. Kara Scott busted out 104th.

Quote

07-12-2008 , 11:14 PM

#40

Sly Caveat

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 8,635

Who are the 2p2ers left?

Quote

07-12-2008 , 11:22 PM

#41

CincyLady

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 1,934

I found the chip count list, and there is a Kelly Kim listed.

http://www.worldseriesofpoker.com/to......48&grid=411

Can anyone say if this Kelly is a guy or a gal?

Quote

07-12-2008 , 11:24 PM

#42

spaceman Bryce

anything you guys want

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 21,015

Quote:

Originally Posted by CincyLady

I found the chip count list, and there is a Kelly Kim listed.

http://www.worldseriesofpoker.com/to......48&grid=411

Can anyone say if this Kelly is a guy or a gal?

He is a guy.

Quote

07-12-2008 , 11:41 PM

#43

Kevmath

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 28,242

It appears they'll play one more level tonight, then come back Sunday at 12 to play down to 27.

Quote

07-12-2008 , 11:44 PM

#44

Kevmath

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 28,242

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sly Caveat

Who are the 2p2ers left?

David Benefied - Raptor(whatever number comes after it)
Matt Matros - jacksup
Andrew Brokos - Foucault
Craig Marquis - craigmarq
Garrett Beckman - gbecks(and some number)
Justin Sadauskas - J_V
Keith Hawkins - The Camel
Adam Levy - Roothlus

I'm sure I'm missing a player or three

Quote

07-13-2008 , 12:32 AM

#45

ICMIZER 3 Representative

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 4,656

Is it over for tonight or 92 isnt a final number of players who go to sunday?

Quote

07-13-2008 , 12:36 AM

#46

JBS1273

banned

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 2,041

Play will end after this level for the tonight...just announced!

Quote

07-13-2008 , 12:48 AM

#47

SuperUberBob

Not interesting enough

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 48,217

Wouldn't it suck to see Brandon Cantu win the ME?

The world biggest douchebag winning the ME.

Quote

07-13-2008 , 12:54 AM

#48

CrazyLond

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 3,017

Wow, Matusow just doubled up with a T5...let's hope this isn't the start of a blowup...

To make matters even more interesting, Hellmuth is now next to him at the feature table...should be a great episode.

Quote

07-13-2008 , 12:58 AM

#49

suzy89222

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 1,204

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrazyLond

at least 2, Lisa Parsons has 1.2m and Tiffany Michelle has 3m

2. i was one of the others that busted today

Quote

07-13-2008 , 01:03 AM

#50

JMX

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 1,720

Wow, Tiffany Michelle now 4th on the chip counts.
I hope she makes the FT.

Quote

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