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** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** ** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)**

07-12-2008 , 07:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jogsxyz
Skill is a linear function of number of hands played.
Measured in bb/100 hands.

Luck is a linear function of the square root of number of hands played.
Measured in (bb)²/100 hands.
The square root of that is the standard deviation.

The stronger player wants to play as many hands as possible to
determine the champion.
The weaker player wants to play as few hands as possible.

Big pots leads to fewer hands and more luck.
I always thought it was Sklansky that proved that, when he talked about such a scenario in TPFAP, if you are at a very tough table or generally outclassed, you should overplay a lot more (IE the example given was pushing all-in or check-raising all-in on the flop with gutshot + flushdraw + one overcard).

Similarly, if I was in a heads-up no-limit tournament and was paired up against a world class player, I'd simply push all-in with my top 90% of hands flop. I don't think I'd have a 25% chance of outplaying the guy, but I'd surely get that with such a strategy.
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-12-2008 , 07:19 PM
What does everyone think of Hellmuth's laydown?

His hand: Qd 7d

Board 6h 5d 4d

Action: Hellmuth Checked, 2nd player all in for 400k, 3rd player folded. Hellmuth layed it down.

Because Hellmuth doubled up to around 750k a few hands later, we can only assume he would have been all in for his tournament life (or close to it) if he called.

Thoughts?
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-12-2008 , 07:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RutgersKev
What does everyone think of Hellmuth's laydown?

His hand: Qd 7d

Board 6h 5d 4d

Action: Hellmuth Checked, 2nd player all in for 400k, 3rd player folded. Hellmuth layed it down.

Because Hellmuth doubled up to around 750k a few hands later, we can only assume he would have been all in for his tournament life (or close to it) if he called.

Thoughts?
I'm no expert, but from what I gather, Hellmuth doesn't like to risk his tourney life unless he has a made hand. He probably put the guy on an overpair or a set and decided that even though he may have been a statistical favorite, his odds were better by mucking and waiting for a safer moment to get his chips in.
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-12-2008 , 07:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RutgersKev
What does everyone think of Hellmuth's laydown?

His hand: Qd 7d

Board 6h 5d 4d

Action: Hellmuth Checked, 2nd player all in for 400k, 3rd player folded. Hellmuth layed it down.

Because Hellmuth doubled up to around 750k a few hands later, we can only assume he would have been all in for his tournament life (or close to it) if he called.

Thoughts?
There's no way I wouldn't have had all my chips in the middle on that flop. Obviously Hellmuth has an unorthodox method, but even if he passes on spots that seem absurd, it clearly works for him given his record.
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-12-2008 , 07:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kevdawg21
There's no way I wouldn't have had all my chips in the middle on that flop. Obviously Hellmuth has an unorthodox method, but even if he passes on spots that seem absurd, it clearly works for him given his record.
Exactly. I would be inclined to play that hand very strong.

If the guy has the nuts with a diamond blocker, Hellmuth has 38% equity. If it's a set, Hellmuth has 39%. And if it's a "pair plus open ended straight draw" hand (IE 6c 7h) which would be a reasonable hand to put Hellmuth to the test in a sign of weakness, Hellmuth has 54%. The hand Hellmuth fears the most is actually a bigger flush draw.

Some knowledge of the preflop betting and position would help an awful lot; anyone know it?
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-12-2008 , 08:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kevdawg21
Obviously Hellmuth has an unorthodox method, but even if he passes on spots that seem absurd, it clearly works for him given his record.
It's not fair to analyze a single Hellmuth fold, no matter how big a laydown, in a vaccuum. It has to be viewed as part of his entire game.

Obviously, his overall no-limit hold 'em tournament game has achieved better results than anybody else (7 bracelets as well as one pot-limit bracelet).
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-12-2008 , 09:08 PM
Allen Cunningham Eliminated
Allen Cunningham moved all in preflop from the hijack position for 255,000 and Tim Loecke made the call in the small blind.

Cunningham:
Loecke:

The board ran out to end another deep Main Event run for Allen Cunningham in 117th place for $41,816 in prize money.
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-12-2008 , 09:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moose
I always thought it was Sklansky that proved that, when he talked about such a scenario in TPFAP, if you are at a very tough table or generally outclassed, you should overplay a lot more (IE the example given was pushing all-in or check-raising all-in on the flop with gutshot + flushdraw + one overcard).

Similarly, if I was in a heads-up no-limit tournament and was paired up against a world class player, I'd simply push all-in with my top 90% of hands flop. I don't think I'd have a 25% chance of outplaying the guy, but I'd surely get that with such a strategy.
This was known by statisticians before DS was born. He is hardly entitled to credit for this proof.
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-12-2008 , 09:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dynasty
It's not fair to analyze a single Hellmuth fold, no matter how big a laydown, in a vaccuum. It has to be viewed as part of his entire game.

Obviously, his overall no-limit hold 'em tournament game has achieved better results than anybody else (7 bracelets as well as one pot-limit bracelet).
I agree. Clearly, based on two decades of consistent excellence, he's one of the best tournament NLH players in the world. I wasn't really trying to criticize his game, or even say for certain that he made a mistake, I was just noting that Hellmuth definitely has his own way of playing NLH that can be perplexing at times.
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-12-2008 , 10:02 PM
From Pokernews:

Short Stack for Sheikhan (Suddenly)
Shawn Sheikhan raised from late position, and was reraised by Jamal Kunbuz from the button. It folded back around to Sheikhan who shoved his entire stack -- around 1.5 million -- and Kunbuz snap-called.

Sheikhan
Kunbuz

The board ran out , and Kunbuz catapults to 3.2 million. Sheikhan is now all of sudden way down to just 75,000.



Wow. Sheiky loses 95% of his very healthy stack AI pf with JJ vs. AA. Pretty colossal blow up by the Sheik IMO.
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-12-2008 , 10:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kevdawg21
From Pokernews:

Short Stack for Sheikhan (Suddenly)
Shawn Sheikhan raised from late position, and was reraised by Jamal Kunbuz from the button. It folded back around to Sheikhan who shoved his entire stack -- around 1.5 million -- and Kunbuz snap-called.

Sheikhan
Kunbuz

The board ran out , and Kunbuz catapults to 3.2 million. Sheikhan is now all of sudden way down to just 75,000.



Wow. Sheiky loses 95% of his very healthy stack AI pf with JJ vs. AA. Pretty colossal blow up by the Sheik IMO.
This is the worst play I have EVER seen, unless the guy with AA was running over Sheiky all day nd he finally decided to make a stand. But with the blinds 10K/20K this just makes no sense.
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-12-2008 , 10:58 PM
Just out of curiosity, but has anyone seen any blurbs saying how many women are still left in the ME (if any)?
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-12-2008 , 11:02 PM
at least 2, Lisa Parsons has 1.2m and Tiffany Michelle has 3m
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-12-2008 , 11:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CrazyLond
at least 2, Lisa Parsons has 1.2m and Tiffany Michelle has 3m
At dinner break exactly two. Kara Scott busted out 104th.
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-12-2008 , 11:14 PM
Who are the 2p2ers left?
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-12-2008 , 11:22 PM
I found the chip count list, and there is a Kelly Kim listed.

http://www.worldseriesofpoker.com/to......48&grid=411


Can anyone say if this Kelly is a guy or a gal?
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-12-2008 , 11:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CincyLady
I found the chip count list, and there is a Kelly Kim listed.

http://www.worldseriesofpoker.com/to......48&grid=411


Can anyone say if this Kelly is a guy or a gal?
He is a guy.
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-12-2008 , 11:41 PM
It appears they'll play one more level tonight, then come back Sunday at 12 to play down to 27.
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-12-2008 , 11:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sly Caveat
Who are the 2p2ers left?
David Benefied - Raptor(whatever number comes after it)
Matt Matros - jacksup
Andrew Brokos - Foucault
Craig Marquis - craigmarq
Garrett Beckman - gbecks(and some number)
Justin Sadauskas - J_V
Keith Hawkins - The Camel
Adam Levy - Roothlus

I'm sure I'm missing a player or three
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-13-2008 , 12:32 AM
Is it over for tonight or 92 isnt a final number of players who go to sunday?
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-13-2008 , 12:36 AM
Play will end after this level for the tonight...just announced!
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-13-2008 , 12:48 AM
Wouldn't it suck to see Brandon Cantu win the ME?

The world biggest douchebag winning the ME.
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-13-2008 , 12:54 AM
Wow, Matusow just doubled up with a T5...let's hope this isn't the start of a blowup...

To make matters even more interesting, Hellmuth is now next to him at the feature table...should be a great episode.
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-13-2008 , 12:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CrazyLond
at least 2, Lisa Parsons has 1.2m and Tiffany Michelle has 3m
2. i was one of the others that busted today
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote
07-13-2008 , 01:03 AM
Wow, Tiffany Michelle now 4th on the chip counts.
I hope she makes the FT.
** Event 54: ,000 NL Holdem World Championship - Saturday July 12, 12pm (Day 5)** Quote

      
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